Back to Dashboard
20

UPB

๐Ÿฅ Healthcare

Upstream Bio, Inc.

Conservative #1277Aggressive #1144High RiskFโ†‘ 48pt
$7.94+2.58%
Day High$8.30
Day Low$7.74
Volume1.0M
Mkt Cap$429M
52W Low $552W High $34
Market Cap
$437M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
-0.4%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-205.8%
Profit Margin
-4366.8%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.00

Why This Score

UPB scores 20.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.00) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (10%) โ€” steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (30.9%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -18.6 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, UPB would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score20.2
Fundamental Score27.9
ML Score41.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
0.5
6 Month
0.5
Primary
1 Year
0.6

Quality Assessment

D
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $0.4B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary risk
Speculative Classification
Anomalous margin data โ€” extreme values suggest one-time events or accounting irregularities.
Conservative score reduced by 4 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
2.6%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
75
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
68
Grade Blow float, small cap
Base
24.6
SHAP
+1.9
Factors
-1.5
Conviction
-4.8
Final
20.2
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)42.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)24.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)88.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-43.1% to -31.1%
Medium-term
-59.8% to -43.8%
Long-term
-76.8% to -52.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 41

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+500.0%
Coverage2 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score75.1/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum-0.5%
Volatility+0.3%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+59.3%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.21)
Relative Strength vs Sector-14.1%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.3)
Momentum Quality+0.029
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P18
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P22
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P4
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 50 relative to sector peers50/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 2th percentileP2
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.9pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (50.0) + 9% ML (1.6) + SHAP(+1.9) = 47.6โ€”
Factor quality: -1.5pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Market cap adjustment: -20.0 points ($0.4B market cap)-20.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -4.8pt (conviction=0)โ€”
Divergence penalty: -5.9pt (fund 48pt higher)โ€”
Risk Factors
Risk assessment: high. Annualized volatility 30.9%. Max drawdown 72% (-12.0 pts)High
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by -30 pointsGrade D
Quality concern: Non-operating gain: net margin (-4366.8%) exceeds operating margin (-5020.1%) by 653pp โ€” likely one-time item; Pipeline concentration: $0.4B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare โ€” Rank #276 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
UPB20.2N/A-0.4%-4366.8%$437M
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
ASND78.216.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.3B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
Sector Average36.441.9161.5%-3292.7%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy2 analysts
Buy: 2
Price Target
$49consensus
Low $47Median $49High $51
+517.1% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Upstream Bio, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, develops treatments for inflammatory diseases that focuses on severe respiratory disorders. It develops verekitug, a monoclonal antibody that targets and inhibits the thymic stromal lymphopoietin receptor. The company also develops therapies to treat severe asthma, chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Upstream Bio, Inc. was incorporated in 2021 and is based in Waltham, Massachusetts.

CEO
E. Rand Sutherland
Employees
52
Beta
1.93
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
10.1
Oversold
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-76.6%
High: $33.68
From 52W Low
+53.4%
Low: $5.14
Moving Averages
10-Day
$8.60
Below
20-Day
$18.00
Below
50-Day
$24.90
Below
200-Day
$19.20
Below
60-Day Support
$7.7
60-Day Resistance
$33.68
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 25/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Transition signal: 3โ†’4
Price vs 200 SMA
-58.9%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+37.23%
Rising
Volume Ratio
2.35x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
11
Confidence: 50%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$683,000$937,000$566,000$613,000
Gross Profit$652,000$937,000$566,000$613,000
Operating Income$-38M$-44M$-32M$-26M
Net Income$-34M$-40M$-27M$-21M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.63$-0.74$-0.51$-0.41
Gross Margin95.5%100.0%100.0%100.0%
Operating Margin-5539.4%-4732.9%-5656.0%-4293.3%
Net Margin-4941.1%-4265.3%-4818.0%-3465.3%

Why This Stock

Healthcare

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 68/100Score impact: -35.1pt

Volume
100
1.1M avg/day
Dollar Vol
58
$9M/day
Float
50
20M shares
Mkt Cap
23
$437M
Range
100
555% spread
Composite Liquidity Score68/100
FDCBA
low floatsmall cap

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.11x dampening
weinstein decliningslight revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
36.9%
Outstanding Shares
54M
Bid-Ask Spread
555.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.