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VRTX

🏥 Healthcare

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorpor

Conservative #18Aggressive #52Low RiskLow 15ML↑ 28pt
$483.05-0.90%
Day High$492.23
Day Low$481.71
Volume0.8M
Mkt Cap$122.7B
52W Low $36352W High $520
Market Cap
$126.0B
P/E Ratio
32.1
Sector avg: 252.3
Rev Growth
8.9%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
838.1%
Profit Margin
32.9%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.11

Why This Score

VRTX scores 78.0 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 21.2% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High net margin of 32.9%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Large-cap ($126B) with deep liquidity and institutional ownership.
  • ML model assigns a high-conviction signal (95/100), indicating strong pattern recognition across 82 features.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Minor adjustments (-1.4 points) applied. VRTX's rank of #18 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score78.0
Fundamental Score70.5
ML Score95.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
81.1
6 Month
90.7
Primary
1 Year
95.5

Quality Assessment

F
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
20
Topping
Sentiment (2.5%)
53
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
71
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
98
Grade A
Base
75.4
SHAP
+2.3
Factors
+1.7
Divergence
-1.4
Final
78.0
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

77AVG
Value55
Quality95
Growth90
Stability90
Investment55

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)75.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)74.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)81.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+11.9% to +18.1%
Medium-term
+17.4% to +26.6%
Long-term
+28.4% to +41.6%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 95

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score70.5/100
Target Upside+12.4%
Coverage55 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score52.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage3 — Topping
12M Momentum+0.0%
6M Momentum+0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-23.3%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.09)
Relative Strength vs Sector-22.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.4)
Momentum Quality+0.019
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
5%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P55
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P16
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P74
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 70 relative to sector peers70/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 97th percentileP97
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (69.8) + 9% ML (97.4) + SHAP(+2.4) = 74.7—
Factor quality: +1.8pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 6.8%. Stability bonus of +8.5 points. Max drawdown 23% (-6.1 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +3.5 points ($126.0B market cap)+3.5 pts
Conviction penalty: -3.4pt (conviction=15)—
Divergence penalty: -2.6pt (ML 28pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade F: assessed. Score adjusted by -30 pointsGrade F
Quality concern: Earnings growth (838%) massively exceeds revenue growth (8.9%) — earnings spike likely non-recurring; Earnings/revenue growth ratio of 94x — earnings quality suspect; Trikafta (elexacaftor/tezacaftor/ivacaftor): LOE 2037 (85% of revenue, 11yr)Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #4 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
BMRN69.722.318.0%15.0%$11.5B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy55 analysts
Buy: 45Hold: 10
Price Target
$545consensus
Low $441Median $552High $607
+12.8% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, a biotechnology company, engages in developing and commercializing therapies for treating cystic fibrosis. The company markets SYMDEKO/SYMKEVI, ORKAMBI, and KALYDECO to treat patients with cystic fibrosis who have specific mutations in their cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator gene; and TRIKAFTA for the treatment of patients with CF 6 years of age or older who have at least one F508del mutation. Its pipeline includes VX-864 for the treatment of AAT deficiency, which is in Phase 2 clinical trial; VX-147 for the treatment of APOL1-mediated focal segmental glomerulosclerosis, or FSGS, and other serious kidney diseases which is in Phase 2 clinical trial; VX- 880, treatment for Type 1 Diabetes which is in Phase 1/2 clinical trial; VX-548, a NaV1.8 inhibitor for treatments of acute, neuropathic, musculoskeletal pain which is in Phase 2 clinical trial; and CTX001 for the treatment severe SCD and TDT which is in Phase 3 clinical trial. The company sells its products primarily to specialty pharmacy and specialty distributors in the United States, as well as specialty distributors and retail chains, and hospitals and clinics internationally. It has collaborations with Affinia Therapeutics, Inc.; Arbor Biotechnologies, Inc.; CRISPR Therapeutics AG.; Kymera Therapeutics, Inc.; Mammoth Biosciences, Inc.; Moderna, Inc.; Obsidian Therapeutics, Inc.; and Skyhawk Therapeutics, Inc.; as well as Ribometrix, Inc.; Genomics plc; Merck KGaA; Darmstadt, Germany, and X-Chem, Inc. Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.

CEO
Reshma Kewalramani
Employees
6,100
Beta
0.32
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
55.1
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-7%
High: $519.68
From 52W Low
+33.3%
Low: $362.5
Moving Averages
10-Day
$476.30
Above
20-Day
$473.30
Above
50-Day
$464.30
Above
200-Day
$435.70
Above
60-Day Support
$423.46
60-Day Resistance
$503.88
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 3 — ToppingScore: 33/100

Stock is losing momentum near highs. The 200-day SMA is flattening or beginning to turn. Historically, this stage precedes distribution.

Exercise caution; tighten risk management
Transition signal: 3→4
Price vs 200 SMA
+10.9%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-1.75%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
1.06x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
52
Confidence: 80%
Recent Gap Up

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$3.2B$3.1B$3.0B$2.8B
Gross Profit$2.8B$2.7B$2.6B$2.4B
Operating Income$1.3B$1.2B$1.2B$630M
Net Income$1.2B$1.1B$1.0B$646M
EPS (Diluted)$4.65$4.20$3.99$2.49
Gross Margin85.6%86.5%86.3%86.9%
Operating Margin40.3%38.6%38.8%22.7%
Net Margin36.9%35.2%34.8%23.3%

Why This Stock

HealthcareProfit margin 32.9%Earnings quality grade F

Tradability FilterGrade A — 98/100Score impact: -3.0pt

Volume
100
1.5M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$703M/day
Float
100
253M shares
Mkt Cap
100
$126.0B
Range
82
43% spread
Composite Liquidity Score98/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 7/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$176.36$224.4924%Narrow
2022$214.66$324.7540.8%Wide
2023$282.21$413.0037.6%Wide
2024$377.85$519.8831.6%Moderate
2025$362.50$519.6835.6%Wide
3-Year Range
59.3%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
99.7%
Outstanding Shares
254M
Bid-Ask Spread
43.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.