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82

CPRX

🏥 Healthcare

Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Conservative #9Aggressive #44Low RiskHigh 92
$24.86+2.77%
Day High$25.00
Day Low$24.19
Volume0.9M
Mkt Cap$3.1B
52W Low $1952W High $27
Market Cap
$3.0B
P/E Ratio
13.7
Sector avg: 252.3
Rev Growth
23.5%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
129.5%
Profit Margin
37.6%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.00

Why This Score

CPRX scores 82.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 26.4% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High net margin of 37.6%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 13.7x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (5.9% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.00) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (92/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.

No material penalties applied. CPRX ranks #9 based on its factor profile and ML signal alignment.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score82.2
Fundamental Score77.0
ML Score83.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
83.0
6 Month
92.8
Primary
1 Year
97.7

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $3.0B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
65
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
73
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
89
Grade A
Base
78.2
SHAP
+1.7
Factors
+0.9
Conviction
+1.5
Final
82.2
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)91.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)74.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)85.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+14.5% to +21.5%
Medium-term
+21.4% to +31.9%
Long-term
+30.8% to +45.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 83

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score73.4/100
Target Upside+37.9%
Coverage16 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score64.7/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum+0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-11.9%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.35)
Relative Strength vs Sector-18.1%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.1)
Momentum Quality+0.050
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
8%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P74
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P33
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P88
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 87 relative to sector peers87/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 96th percentileP96
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.0pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (86.9) + 9% ML (95.7) + SHAP(+3.0) = 90.7
Factor quality: +1.6pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 5.9%. Stability bonus of +10.1 points. Max drawdown 21% (-5.2 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: -4.0 points ($3.0B market cap)-4.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +2.6pt (conviction=92)
Sector diversity: -6.0pt (Healthcare over-represented)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -7 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: Pipeline concentration: $3.0B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary risk; R&D-adjusted ROIC: 14.2% (original: 21.3%). Biotechnology has ~40% R&D intensity. Capitalizing R&D over 5 years increases invested capital by ~100%.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #3 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
BMRN69.722.318.0%15.0%$11.5B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy16 analysts
Buy: 15Hold: 1
Price Target
$33consensus
Low $33Median $33High $33
+32.7% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing and commercializing therapies for people with rare debilitating, chronic neuromuscular, and neurological diseases in the United States. It offers Firdapse, an amifampridine phosphate tablets for the treatment of patients with lambert-eaton myasthenic syndrome (LEMS); and Ruzurgi for the treatment of pediatric LEMS patients. The company also develops Firdapse for the treatment of MuSK antibody positive myasthenia gravis, and spinal muscular atrophy type 3, as well as to treat hereditary neuropathy with liability to pressure palsies. It has license agreements with BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.; and collaboration and license agreement with Endo Ventures Limited for the development and commercialization of generic Sabril tablets. The company was formerly known as Catalyst Pharmaceutical Partners, Inc. and changed its name to Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. in May 2015. Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was founded in 2002 and is based in Coral Gables, Florida.

CEO
Richard John Daly
Employees
181
Beta
0.73
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
48.0
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-6.5%
High: $26.58
From 52W Low
+30.5%
Low: $19.05
Moving Averages
10-Day
$24.30
Above
20-Day
$24.40
Above
50-Day
$23.90
Above
200-Day
$22.30
Above
60-Day Support
$22.13
60-Day Resistance
$25.53
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 65/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+11.5%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+1.24%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
1x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
72
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$153M$148M$147M$141M
Gross Profit$364M$123M$117M$124M
Operating Income$62M$66M$66M$63M
Net Income$53M$53M$52M$57M
EPS (Diluted)$0.41$0.42$0.41$0.45
Gross Margin238.3%82.9%79.6%87.3%
Operating Margin40.5%44.7%45.2%44.8%
Net Margin34.5%35.6%35.6%40.1%

Why This Stock

HealthcareP/E ratio of 13.7Revenue growth 23.5%Profit margin 37.6%Earnings quality grade A

Tradability FilterGrade A — 89/100Score impact: -2.6pt

Volume
100
1.2M avg/day
Dollar Vol
87
$30M/day
Float
100
115M shares
Mkt Cap
62
$3.0B
Range
78
40% spread
Composite Liquidity Score89/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 1/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$3.27$7.5879.4%Wide
2022$5.24$19.78116.2%Wide
2023$11.09$22.1166.4%Wide
2024$13.12$24.2759.6%Wide
2025$19.05$26.5833%Moderate
3-Year Range
82.2%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
93.8%
Outstanding Shares
123M
Bid-Ask Spread
40.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.