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72

HOLX

🏥 Healthcare

Hologic, Inc.

Conservative #52Aggressive #367Low RiskLow 37ML↑ 32pt
$75.34-0.01%
Day High$75.39
Day Low$75.30
Volume0.9M
Mkt Cap$16.8B
52W Low $5252W High $75
Market Cap
$16.8B
P/E Ratio
31.1
Sector avg: 252.3
Rev Growth
1.7%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-28.3%
Profit Margin
13.8%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.52

Why This Score

HOLX scores 73.3 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Low volatility (3.9% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (18%) — steady appreciation without overheating.

No material penalties applied. HOLX ranks #52 based on its factor profile and ML signal alignment.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score73.3
Fundamental Score67.4
ML Score77.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
84.3
6 Month
94.2
Primary
1 Year
99.1

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality
Quality Flags
False stability: 0.039 vol with only 1.7% revenue growth — stagnation, not safety

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
51
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
60
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
96
Grade A
Base
72.5
SHAP
+2.6
Factors
+1.4
Divergence
-3.2
Final
73.3
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

63AVG
Value55
Quality70
Growth35
Stability75
Investment80

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)43.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)82.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)78.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+7.7% to +13.3%
Medium-term
+11.2% to +19.6%
Long-term
+18.7% to +30.3%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 77

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score60.1/100
Target Upside+3.1%
Coverage42 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score50.9/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.2%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+6.6%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.64)
Relative Strength vs Sector-6.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (4.7)
Momentum Quality+0.173
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
8%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P44
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P17
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P87
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 65 relative to sector peers65/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 97th percentileP97
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.7pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (65.4) + 9% ML (97.0) + SHAP(+3.7) = 72.0—
Factor quality: +1.9pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 3.9%. Stability bonus of +12.0 pointsLow
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($16.8B market cap)+2.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -1.2pt (conviction=37)—
Divergence penalty: -3.2pt (ML 32pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -17 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: False stability: 0.0 vol with only 1.7% revenue growth — stagnation, not safety; R&D-adjusted ROIC: 11.9% (original: 12.5%). Medical Instruments & Supplies has ~8% R&D intensity. Capitalizing R&D over 5 years increases invested capital by ~20%.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #10 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
BMRN69.722.318.0%15.0%$11.5B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold42 analysts
Buy: 18Hold: 23Sell: 1
Price Target
$78consensus
Low $76Median $78High $79
+3.3% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Hologic, Inc. develops, manufactures, and supplies diagnostics products, medical imaging systems, and surgical products for women's health through early detection and treatment in the United States, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Diagnostics, Breast Health, GYN Surgical, and Skeletal Health. The company provides Aptima molecular diagnostic assays to detect the infectious microorganisms; Aptima viral load tests for HIV, Hepatitis C, and Hepatitis B; Aptima SARS-CoV-2 and Panther Fusion SARS-CoV-2 assays for the detection of SARS-CoV-2; ThinPrep System for use in cytology applications; Rapid Fetal Fibronectin Test that assists physicians in assessing the risk of pre-term birth; and various diagnostic tests for the detection of Group B Streptococcus. It also offers breast imaging and analytics, such as 2D and 3D digital mammography systems and reading workstations, minimally invasive breast biopsy guidance systems and devices, breast biopsy site markers and localization, specimen radiology, and ultrasound and connectivity solutions; and breast conserving surgery products. In addition, the company provides NovaSure Endometrial Ablation System for the treatment of abnormal uterine bleeding; MyoSure Hysteroscopic Tissue Removal System for the removal of fibroids, polyps, and other pathology within the uterus; and Fluent Fluid Management System that provides liquid distention during diagnostic and operative hysteroscopic procedures. Further, it offers Horizon DXA, a dual energy X-ray system; and the Fluoroscan Insight FD mini C-arm to perform minimally invasive orthopedic surgical procedures. The company sells its products through direct sales and service forces, and independent distributors and sales representatives. Hologic, Inc. was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Marlborough, Massachusetts.

CEO
Stephen MacMillan
Employees
7,063
Beta
0.73
Industry
Medical - Instruments & Supplies
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
74.2
Overbought
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-0.2%
High: $75.49
From 52W Low
+45.2%
Low: $51.9
Moving Averages
10-Day
$75.20
Above
20-Day
$75.00
Above
50-Day
$75.00
Above
200-Day
$69.30
Above
60-Day Support
$74.19
60-Day Resistance
$75.49
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 71/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+8.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+6.64%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.89x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025
Revenue$1.0B$1.0B$1.0B$1.0B
Gross Profit$586M$639M$577M$377M
Operating Income$237M$237M$255M$-7M
Net Income$179M$187M$195M$-17M
EPS (Diluted)$0.79$0.83$0.86$-0.08
Gross Margin56.0%60.9%56.3%37.5%
Operating Margin22.6%22.6%24.9%-0.7%
Net Margin17.1%17.8%19.0%-1.7%

Why This Stock

HealthcareProfit margin 13.8%Earnings quality grade A

Tradability FilterGrade A — 96/100Score impact: +1.7pt

Volume
100
2.7M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$205M/day
Float
100
220M shares
Mkt Cap
83
$16.8B
Range
83
45% spread
Composite Liquidity Score96/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 34/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$60.10$81.0429.7%Moderate
2022$59.78$80.4929.5%Moderate
2023$64.02$87.8831.4%Moderate
2024$70.36$84.6718.5%Narrow
2025$51.90$75.3436.8%Wide
3-Year Range
51.5%
Narrow Years
3 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
stagnation flag

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
98.5%
Outstanding Shares
223M
Bid-Ask Spread
45.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.