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22

RLAY

๐Ÿฅ Healthcare

Relay Therapeutics, Inc.

Conservative #1240Aggressive #1255Moderate RiskFโ†‘ 21pt
$9.16-0.65%
Day High$9.41
Day Low$8.84
Volume1.7M
Mkt Cap$1.6B
52W Low $252W High $10
Market Cap
$1.5B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
-60.8%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
1.2%
Profit Margin
-3561.4%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.05

Why This Score

RLAY scores 22.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.05) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (162%) increases mean-reversion probability. 3-point penalty applied.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (19.1%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -20.5 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, RLAY would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score22.4
Fundamental Score47.0
ML Score3.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
9.1
6 Month
10.1
Primary
1 Year
10.7

Quality Assessment

F
Quality Grade
Low quality โ€” significant fundamental weaknesses
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $1.5B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary risk
Speculative Classification
Speculative growth โ€” negative margins and ROE with momentum-driven price action. High risk of mean reversion.
Anomalous margin data โ€” extreme values suggest one-time events or accounting irregularities.
Speculative micro-cap โ€” no earnings, sub-$2B market cap, momentum-driven. Position sizing should reflect elevated risk.
Conservative score reduced by 10 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.2%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
88
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
77
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
88
Grade A
Base
25.2
SHAP
+3.1
Factors
-0.8
Conviction
-0.8
Divergence
-4.3
Final
22.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

32AVG
Value50
Quality0
Growth21
Stability77
Investment10

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)42.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)88.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)91.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-27.8% to -15.8%
Medium-term
-37.3% to -21.3%
Long-term
-47.7% to -25.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 3

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score76.8/100
Target Upside+52.4%
Coverage14 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score87.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+1.6%
6M Momentum+1.5%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+13.1%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.92)
Relative Strength vs Sector+137.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+1.458
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
2%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P5
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P22
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P12
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 47 relative to sector peers47/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 3th percentileP3
Blended score: 80% fundamental (47) + 20% ML (3) = 38.238.2
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.2%; Drawdown 10% โ†’ 0.0pt; Positive momentum 162% โ†’ -3.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade F: quality flags triggered โ€” see details below. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade F
SHAP feature alignment: +3.1pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: -0.8pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Divergence penalty: -4.3pt (ML 44pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: Pipeline concentration: $1.5B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag
Speculative: SPEC_GROWTH, ANOMALY_MARGIN, SPEC_MICRO (10.0pt penalty)Speculative

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare โ€” Rank #264 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
RLAY22.4N/A-60.8%-3561.4%$1.5B
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
ASND78.316.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.3B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
Sector Average36.641.9161.5%-3292.7%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Relay Therapeutics, Inc. operates as a clinical-stage precision medicines company. It engages in transforming the drug discovery process with an initial focus on enhancing small molecule therapeutic discovery in targeted oncology and genetic disease indications. The company's lead product candidates include RLY-4008, an oral small molecule inhibitor of fibroblast growth factor receptor 2 (FGFR2), which is in a first-in-human clinical trial for patients with advanced or metastatic FGFR2-altered solid tumors; RLY-2608, a lead mutant-PI3Ka inhibitor program that targets phosphoinostide 3 kinase alpha; and RLY-1971, an oral small molecule inhibitor of protein tyrosine phosphatase Src homology region 2 domain-containing phosphatase-2 that is in Phase 1 trial in patients with advanced solid tumors. It has collaboration and license agreements with D. E. Shaw Research, LLC to research certain biological targets through the use of D. E. Shaw Research computational modeling capabilities focused on analysis of protein motion to develop and commercialize compounds and products directed to such targets; and Genentech, Inc. for the development and commercialization of RLY-1971. The company was formerly known as Allostery, Inc. and changed its name to Relay Therapeutics, Inc. in December 2015. Relay Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

CEO
Sanjiv K. Patel
Employees
259
Beta
1.62
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
65.4
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-4%
High: $9.54
From 52W Low
+414.6%
Low: $1.78
Moving Averages
10-Day
$9.00
Above
20-Day
$8.70
Above
50-Day
$8.30
Above
200-Day
$5.60
Above
60-Day Support
$7.01
60-Day Resistance
$9.54
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 90/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+63.6%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+37.42%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.68x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$7M$0$677,000$8M
Gross Profit$-8M$-748,000$677,000$8M
Operating Income$-61M$-80M$-77M$-85M
Net Income$-55M$-74M$-70M$-77M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.31$-0.43$-0.41$-0.46
Gross Margin-108.7%N/A100.0%100.0%
Operating Margin-866.3%N/A-11351.1%-1105.2%
Net Margin-784.3%N/A-10395.1%-1003.6%

Why This Stock

Healthcare

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 88/100Score impact: -18.4pt

Volume
100
2.3M avg/day
Dollar Vol
80
$20M/day
Float
100
127M shares
Mkt Cap
51
$1.5B
Range
100
437% spread
Composite Liquidity Score88/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.3x dampening
severe revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
73.3%
Outstanding Shares
173M
Bid-Ask Spread
437.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.