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5

ZBIO

๐Ÿฅ Healthcare

Zenas BioPharma, Inc.

Conservative #1400Aggressive #1179High RiskFโ†‘ 43pt
$26.22+0.75%
Day High$26.30
Day Low$25.04
Volume0.3M
Mkt Cap$1.1B
52W Low $652W High $45
Market Cap
$1.1B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
-90.0%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-322.9%
Profit Margin
-1266.0%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.00

Why This Score

ZBIO scores 5.0 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.00) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (277%) increases mean-reversion probability. 5-point penalty applied.
  • Procyclicality: Late-cycle macro signals reduce confidence in extreme-momentum names. 2-point additional penalty.
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (30.8%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -31.4 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, ZBIO would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score5.0
Fundamental Score26.8
ML Score43.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
0.8
6 Month
0.9
Primary
1 Year
1.0

Quality Assessment

D
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $1.1B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary risk
Speculative Classification
Speculative growth โ€” negative margins and ROE with momentum-driven price action. High risk of mean reversion.
Anomalous margin data โ€” extreme values suggest one-time events or accounting irregularities.
Speculative micro-cap โ€” no earnings, sub-$2B market cap, momentum-driven. Position sizing should reflect elevated risk.
Conservative score reduced by 10 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
2.6%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
58
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
67
Grade Blow float
Base
11.2
SHAP
+0.1
Factors
-1.3
Conviction
-4.8
Divergence
-0.2
Final
5.0
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)33.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)68.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)64.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-38.4% to -26.4%
Medium-term
-53.1% to -37.1%
Long-term
-68.4% to -44.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 43

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score57.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+2.8%
6M Momentum+0.7%
Volatility+0.3%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+211.6%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.23)
Relative Strength vs Sector+252.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+1.309
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
3%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P3
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P22
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P14
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 47 relative to sector peers47/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 4th percentileP4
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +0.1pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (47.2) + 9% ML (4.1) + SHAP(+0.1) = 43.4โ€”
Factor quality: -1.3pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Momentum mean-reversion: -6.0pt (277% 12m momentum)โ€”
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.1B market cap)-8.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -4.8pt (conviction=0)โ€”
Divergence penalty: -5.0pt (fund 43pt higher)โ€”
Risk Factors
Risk assessment: high. Annualized volatility 30.8%. Max drawdown 53% (-12.0 pts)High
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by -30 pointsGrade D
Quality concern: Non-operating gain: net margin (-1266.0%) exceeds operating margin (-1338.0%) by 72pp โ€” likely one-time item; Pipeline concentration: $1.1B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare โ€” Rank #335 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ZBIO5.0N/A-90.0%-1266.0%$1.1B
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
ASND78.216.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.3B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
Sector Average36.441.9161.5%-3292.7%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Zenas BioPharma, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, engages in the development and commercialization of transformative immunology-based therapies. Its lead product candidate is obexelimab, a bifunctional monoclonal antibody for various indications, including immunoglobulin G4-related disease, multiple sclerosis, systemic lupus erythematosus, and warm autoimmune hemolytic anemia. The company also develops ZB002, an anti-TNFa monoclonal antibody; ZB004, a cytotoxic T-lymphocyte-associated antigen 4-immunoglobulin fusion; ZB001, an anti-insulin-like growth factor-1 receptor monoclonal antibody; and ZB005, an anti-active complement component 1s monoclonal antibody. Zenas BioPharma, Inc. was formerly known as Zenas BioPharma (Cayman) Limited and changed its name to Zenas BioPharma, Inc. in August 2023. The company was incorporated in 2019 and is based in Waltham, Massachusetts.

CEO
Leon Oliver Moulder Jr.
Employees
130
Beta
-1.47
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
76.3
Overbought
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-41.2%
High: $44.6
From 52W Low
+329.1%
Low: $6.11
Moving Averages
10-Day
$26.30
Below
20-Day
$23.60
Above
50-Day
$25.80
Above
200-Day
$21.60
Above
60-Day Support
$13.5
60-Day Resistance
$44.6
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 84/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+21.4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+37.28%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.98x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
16
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$0$0$10M$5M
Gross Profit$-5M$-43M$10M$5M
Operating Income$-53M$-55M$-37M$-56M
Net Income$-51M$-52M$-34M$-53M
EPS (Diluted)$-1.22$-1.25$-0.80$-1.26
Gross MarginN/AN/A100.0%100.0%
Operating MarginN/AN/A-373.3%-1112.5%
Net MarginN/AN/A-335.7%-1052.1%

Why This Stock

Healthcare

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 67/100Score impact: -58.8pt

Volume
92
790K avg/day
Dollar Vol
80
$21M/day
Float
16
10M shares
Mkt Cap
42
$1.1B
Range
100
630% spread
Composite Liquidity Score67/100
FDCBA
low float

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.3x dampening
severe revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
23.4%
Outstanding Shares
42M
Bid-Ask Spread
630.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.