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NVAX

๐Ÿฅ Healthcare

Novavax, Inc.

Conservative #370Aggressive #602Moderate RiskHigh 100
$11.19+17.42%
Day High$11.97
Day Low$9.70
Volume23.8M
Mkt Cap$1.8B
52W Low $552W High $12
Market Cap
$1.8B
P/E Ratio
4.4
Sector avg: 41.9
Rev Growth
22.6%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
65.6%
Profit Margin
32.1%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

NVAX scores 59.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 32.1%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 4.4x earnings, below the market average.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E -1.60) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (100/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (14.6%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-2.4 points) applied. NVAX's rank of #370 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score59.6
Fundamental Score64.3
ML Score33.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
64.5
6 Month
72.1
Primary
1 Year
75.8

Quality Assessment

B
Quality Grade
Good quality โ€” solid metrics, minor concerns possible
2 quality flags detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (210.7%) โ€” earnings quality concern
Pipeline concentration: $1.5B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
68
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
65
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
91
Grade A
Base
58.0
SHAP
+1.3
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+2.0
Divergence
-2.4
Final
59.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

69AVG
Value93.4441
Quality60
Growth93
Stability69
Investment28

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)77.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)69.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)83.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+1.7% to +6.3%
Medium-term
+3.4% to +10.5%
Long-term
+5.2% to +14.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 33

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score65.2/100
Target Upside+56.1%
Coverage23 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score67.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.0%
6M Momentum+0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-12.0%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.27)
Relative Strength vs Sector-20.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.3)
Momentum Quality+0.034
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P72
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P99
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P5
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 64 relative to sector peers64/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 33th percentileP33
Blended score: 80% fundamental (64) + 20% ML (33) = 58.058.0
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 22% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade B
SHAP feature alignment: +1.3pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +2.0pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Divergence penalty: -2.4pt (ML 31pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (210.7%) โ€” earnings quality concern; Pipeline concentration: $1.5B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare โ€” Rank #46 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
NVAX59.64.422.6%32.1%$1.8B
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
ASND78.316.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.3B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
Sector Average36.641.9161.5%-3292.7%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Novavax, Inc., a biotechnology company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of vaccines to prevent serious infectious diseases and address health needs. The company's vaccine candidates include NVX-CoV2373, a coronavirus vaccine candidate that is in two Phase III trials, one Phase IIb trial, and one Phase I/II trial; NanoFlu, a nanoparticle seasonal quadrivalent influenza vaccine candidate that is in Phase 3 clinical trial; and ResVax, a respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) fusion (F) protein nanoparticle vaccine candidate. It is also developing RSV F vaccine that is in Phase II clinical trial for older adults (60 years and older), as well as that is in Phase I clinical trial for pediatrics. It has a collaboration agreement with Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited for the development, manufacturing, and commercialization of NVX-CoV2373, a COVID-19 vaccine candidate. Novavax, Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, Maryland.

CEO
John Charles Jacobs
Employees
952
Beta
2.58
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
86.2
Overbought
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-6.5%
High: $11.97
From 52W Low
+123.4%
Low: $5.01
Moving Averages
10-Day
$9.20
Above
20-Day
$8.90
Above
50-Day
$8.20
Above
200-Day
$7.70
Above
60-Day Support
$6.36
60-Day Resistance
$11.97
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 80/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+45.3%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+3.44%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.05x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
32
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$70M$239M$667M$88M
Gross Profit$49M$225M$653M$52M
Operating Income$-178M$106M$516M$-131M
Net Income$-202M$107M$519M$-81M
EPS (Diluted)$-1.25$0.60$2.93$-0.51
Gross Margin69.5%94.1%97.9%58.5%
Operating Margin-252.7%44.2%77.3%-148.4%
Net Margin-287.3%44.5%77.8%-91.8%

Why This Stock

HealthcareP/E ratio of 4.4Revenue growth 22.6%Profit margin 32.1%Valuation below sector median (P/E 4.4)

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 91/100Score impact: -1.7pt

Volume
100
4.4M avg/day
Dollar Vol
94
$42M/day
Float
100
140M shares
Mkt Cap
50
$1.8B
Range
100
112% spread
Composite Liquidity Score91/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$117.12$277.8081.4%Wide
2022$8.75$145.20177.3%Wide
2023$4.80$13.7096.2%Wide
2024$3.53$23.86148.4%Wide
2025$5.01$11.5579%Wide
3-Year Range
148.4%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
86.3%
Outstanding Shares
162M
Bid-Ask Spread
112.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.