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51

TERN

๐Ÿฅ Healthcare

Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Aggressive #601High RiskLow 10Fโ†‘ 45pt
$41.01-0.90%
Day High$41.58
Day Low$39.38
Volume1.5M
Mkt Cap$3.7B
52W Low $252W High $48
Market Cap
$3.5B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
0.0%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
1.5%
Profit Margin
0.0%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.00

Why This Score

TERN scores 51.6 on the Aggressive profile, blending a fundamental score (55% weight, emphasizing growth and momentum (91% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (45% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.00) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • Strong momentum (924%) โ€” the market is rewarding this name.
Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (924%) increases mean-reversion probability. 5-point penalty applied.
  • Procyclicality: Late-cycle macro signals reduce confidence in extreme-momentum names. 2-point additional penalty.

Net penalties of -13.5 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, TERN would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score51.6
Fundamental Score54.7
ML Score67.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
2.7
6 Month
3.0
Primary
1 Year
3.2

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
6%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
72
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
93
Grade A
Base
53.2
SHAP
+1.6
Factors
-1.0
Conviction
-2.2
Final
51.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)50.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)74.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)80.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-21.6% to -12.9%
Medium-term
-30.1% to -17.6%
Long-term
-37.9% to -21.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 67

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+38.5%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score72.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+9.2%
6M Momentum+4.4%
Volatility+0.7%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+481.2%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.48)
Relative Strength vs Sector+898.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+7.914
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
6%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P43
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P21
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P49
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 61 relative to sector peers61/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 16th percentileP16
ML model weight reduced to 26% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected26% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.6pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 74% fund (61.4) + 26% ML (15.4) + SHAP(+1.6) = 51.0โ€”
Factor quality: -1.0pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Momentum mean-reversion: -3.0pt (924% 12m momentum)โ€”
Conviction penalty: -2.2pt (conviction=10)โ€”
Divergence penalty: -2.5pt (fund 45pt higher)โ€”
Risk Factors
Risk assessment: high. Extreme vol 66.5% โ†’ -5.7pt; Strong momentum 924% โ†’ +12.0ptHigh

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare โ€” Rank #78 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
TERN51.6N/A0.0%0.0%$3.5B
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
ASND78.216.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.3B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
Sector Average36.441.9161.5%-3292.7%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, develops small-molecule single-agent and combination therapy candidates for the treatment of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and obesity. The company develops TERN-101, a liver-distributed and non-bile acid farnesoid X receptor agonist, which is in Phase IIa clinical trial for the treatment of NASH; and TERN-201, a vascular adhesion protein-1 inhibitor that is in Phase Ib clinical trial for the treatment of NASH. It also develops TERN-501, a thyroid hormone receptor beta agonist with enhanced liver distribution and metabolic stability that is in Phase I clinical trial for the treatment of NASH; and TERN-601, a small-molecule Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 receptor agonist program that is intended to orally be administered for NASH and metabolic diseases, such as obesity. The company was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Foster City, California.

CEO
Amy L. Burroughs
Employees
59
Beta
-0.28
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
80.2
Overbought
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-15.1%
High: $48.26
From 52W Low
+2090%
Low: $1.87
Moving Averages
10-Day
$39.80
Above
20-Day
$38.30
Above
50-Day
$38.40
Above
200-Day
$17.10
Above
60-Day Support
$25.67
60-Day Resistance
$48.26
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 90/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+139.5%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+155.9%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.73x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$0$0$0$0
Gross Profit$0$-108,000$0$0
Operating Income$-28M$-27M$-27M$-26M
Net Income$-25M$-24M$-24M$-22M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.27$-0.26$-0.26$-0.24
Gross MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A
Operating MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A
Net MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A

Why This Stock

Healthcare

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 93/100Score impact: -8.2pt

Volume
100
3.2M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$130M/day
Float
94
85M shares
Mkt Cap
64
$3.5B
Range
100
2488% spread
Composite Liquidity Score93/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$5.52$28.36134.8%Wide
2022$1.45$10.25150.4%Wide
2023$3.26$14.04124.6%Wide
2024$4.32$11.4090.1%Wide
2025$1.87$48.26185.1%Wide
3-Year Range
185.1%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
94.6%
Outstanding Shares
90M
Bid-Ask Spread
2488.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.