Back to Dashboard
73

ASND

🏥 Healthcare

Ascendis Pharma A/S

Conservative #30Aggressive #59Low RiskMixed 44ML↑ 28pt
$228.00-2.97%
Day High$236.83
Day Low$226.55
Volume0.9M
Mkt Cap$14.0B
52W Low $12452W High $242
Market Cap
$13.3B
P/E Ratio
16.6
Sector avg: 252.3
Rev Growth
98.0%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
39.7%
Profit Margin
-31.7%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

ASND scores 75.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 140.1% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Low volatility (4.8% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E -5.35) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (38%) — steady appreciation without overheating.

No material penalties applied. ASND ranks #30 based on its factor profile and ML signal alignment.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score75.7
Fundamental Score71.1
ML Score74.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
72.6
6 Month
81.1
Primary
1 Year
85.4

Quality Assessment

C
Earnings Grade
Mixed fundamentals, potential quality issues
Quality Flags
Negative ROIC (-146.6%) with high ROE (140.1%) — capital structure distortion (possibly negative equity or one-time gain)

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
71
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
73
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
91
Grade A
Base
74.4
SHAP
+3.1
Factors
+0.9
Divergence
-2.7
Final
75.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

72AVG
Value85
Quality40
Growth90
Stability90
Investment55

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)78.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)86.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)86.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+3.4% to +8.3%
Medium-term
+6.0% to +13.6%
Long-term
+8.6% to +18.9%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 74

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score72.9/100
Target Upside+22.9%
Coverage24 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score70.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.4%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+26.8%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.30)
Relative Strength vs Sector+13.7%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.364
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P92
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P29
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P61
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 59 relative to sector peers59/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 86th percentileP86
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +4.3pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (58.7) + 9% ML (84.0) + SHAP(+4.3) = 65.2—
Factor quality: +1.3pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 4.8%. Stability bonus of +12.0 pointsLow
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($13.3B market cap)+2.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -0.6pt (conviction=44)—
Divergence penalty: -2.7pt (ML 28pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by -16 pointsGrade C
Quality concern: Negative ROIC (-146.6%) with high ROE (140.1%) — capital structure distortion (possibly negative equity or one-time gain); High accrual ratio (-21.6%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #5 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
BMRN69.722.318.0%15.0%$11.5B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy24 analysts
Buy: 22Hold: 2
Price Target
$287consensus
Low $250Median $268High $342
+25.7% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Ascendis Pharma A/S, a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing therapeutics for unmet medical needs. The company offers SKYTROFA for treating patients with growth hormone deficiency (GHD). It also develops TransCon Growth Hormone (hGH) for pediatric GHD in Japan; TransCon hGH for adults with GHD; TransCon parathyroid hormone for adult hypoparathyroidism; and TransCon CNP for pediatric achondroplasia. In addition, the company develops TransCon toll like receptors 7/8 agonist for intratumoral delivery; and TransCon IL-2 ß/g for systemic delivery. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Hellerup, Denmark.

CEO
Jan Moller Mikkelsen
Employees
1,017
Beta
0.43
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
57.8
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-5.8%
High: $242
From 52W Low
+83.8%
Low: $124.06
Moving Averages
10-Day
$225.90
Above
20-Day
$224.30
Above
50-Day
$218.00
Above
200-Day
$196.00
Above
60-Day Support
$188.08
60-Day Resistance
$242
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 81/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+16.3%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+10.24%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.15x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$245M$214M$158M$101M
Gross Profit$218M$191M$127M$83M
Operating Income$10M$11M$-53M$-104M
Net Income$-33M$-61M$-39M$-95M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.54$-1.00$-0.82$-1.58
Gross Margin88.9%89.5%80.1%82.6%
Operating Margin4.0%5.1%-33.5%-103.2%
Net Margin-13.6%-28.5%-24.6%-93.7%

Why This Stock

HealthcareP/E ratio of 16.6Revenue growth 98.0%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 91/100Score impact: +3.3pt

Volume
88
703K avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$165M/day
Float
84
61M shares
Mkt Cap
82
$13.3B
Range
100
95% spread
Composite Liquidity Score91/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$109.36$178.7148.1%Wide
2022$61.58$137.4076.2%Wide
2023$64.33$129.4367.2%Wide
2024$111.09$161.0036.7%Wide
2025$118.03$229.9464.3%Wide
3-Year Range
112.6%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
99.1%
Outstanding Shares
61M
Bid-Ask Spread
95.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.