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33

SLNO

🏥 Healthcare

Soleno Therapeutics, Inc.

Conservative #1018Aggressive #1059High RiskLow 18F↑ 41pt
$41.01+4.72%
Day High$41.62
Day Low$39.08
Volume1.6M
Mkt Cap$2.2B
52W Low $3752W High $90
Market Cap
$2.1B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
0.0%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-351.0%
Profit Margin
-79.5%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.01

Why This Score

SLNO scores 33.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.01) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (17.9%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-8.9 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score33.4
Fundamental Score31.6
ML Score65.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
12.3
6 Month
13.8
Primary
1 Year
14.5

Quality Assessment

C
Earnings Grade
Mixed fundamentals, potential quality issues
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $2.1B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
62
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
86
Grade A
Base
38.3
SHAP
+0.6
Factors
+0.3
Conviction
-3.1
Divergence
-2.8
Final
33.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)42.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)29.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)84.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-18.0% to -11.2%
Medium-term
-24.1% to -14.5%
Long-term
-30.2% to -17.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 65

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+161.5%
Coverage11 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score62.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.2%
6M Momentum-0.4%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+21.3%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.53)
Relative Strength vs Sector-48.1%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.3)
Momentum Quality-0.102
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
12%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P41
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P40
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P52
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 70 relative to sector peers70/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 29th percentileP29
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +0.6pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (69.7) + 9% ML (28.0) + SHAP(+0.6) = 66.6—
Factor quality: +0.3pt (multi-factor composite)—
Market cap adjustment: -4.0 points ($2.1B market cap)-4.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -3.1pt (conviction=18)—
Divergence penalty: -4.7pt (fund 41pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Risk assessment: high. Annualized volatility 17.9%. Max drawdown 57% (-12.0 pts). Price momentum -24% (-3.7 pts)High
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by -14 pointsGrade C
Quality concern: Elevated non-operating income: 11pp gap between net and operating margin; High accrual ratio (67.2%) — earnings quality concern; Pipeline concentration: $2.1B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #180 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
SLNO33.4N/A0.0%-79.5%$2.1B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy11 analysts
Buy: 11
Price Target
$105consensus
Low $60Median $114High $125
+156.5% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Soleno Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of novel therapeutics for the treatment of rare diseases. Its lead candidate is Diazoxide Choline Controlled-Release, a once-daily oral tablet for the treatment of Prader-Willi Syndrome, which is being evaluated in an ongoing Phase III clinical development program. The company was formerly known as Capnia, Inc. and changed its name to Soleno Therapeutics, Inc. in May 2017. Soleno Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Redwood City, California.

CEO
Anish Bhatnagar
Employees
115
Beta
-3.18
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
45.9
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-54.6%
High: $90.32
From 52W Low
+11.8%
Low: $36.67
Moving Averages
10-Day
$39.20
Above
20-Day
$40.20
Above
50-Day
$43.50
Below
200-Day
$62.60
Below
60-Day Support
$36.67
60-Day Resistance
$55.47
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 13/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-34.5%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-6.52%
Falling
Volume Ratio
0.79x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
78
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$92M$66M$33M$0
Gross Profit$0$65M$32M$0
Operating Income$92M$22M$-7M$-46M
Net Income$43M$26M$-5M$-44M
EPS (Diluted)$0.80$0.47$-0.09$-0.95
Gross Margin0.0%98.3%97.9%N/A
Operating Margin100.1%33.5%-20.0%N/A
Net Margin47.3%39.4%-14.4%N/A

Why This Stock

Healthcare

Tradability FilterGrade A — 86/100Score impact: -25.3pt

Volume
100
1.5M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$60M/day
Float
60
0K shares
Mkt Cap
60
$2.1B
Range
100
146% spread
Composite Liquidity Score86/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$30.10$209.25149.7%Wide
2022$4.25$36.00157.8%Wide
2023$9.05$40.74127.3%Wide
2024$35.70$60.9252.2%Wide
2025$41.50$90.3274.1%Wide
3-Year Range
163.6%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
146.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.