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RARE

🏥 Healthcare

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.

Conservative #1061Aggressive #1180Moderate RiskHigh 95
Market Cap
$2.2B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
20.1%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-1.0%
Profit Margin
-85.5%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

RARE scores 31.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E -15.95) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (95/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (14.6%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-1.8 points) applied. RARE's rank of #1061 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score31.8
Fundamental Score34.9
ML Score8.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
41.9
6 Month
46.8
Primary
1 Year
49.2

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $2.2B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
58
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
70
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
94
Grade A
Base
29.6
SHAP
+1.0
Factors
+0.5
Conviction
+2.5
Divergence
-1.8
Final
31.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)56.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)29.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)82.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-4.7% to -0.3%
Medium-term
-7.0% to -0.4%
Long-term
-9.3% to -0.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 8

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score69.7/100
Target Upside+112.0%
Coverage33 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score57.9/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 — Basing
12M Momentum-0.5%
6M Momentum-0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-20.7%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.60)
Relative Strength vs Sector-76.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.6)
Momentum Quality-0.275
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P68
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P40
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P7
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 53 relative to sector peers53/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 51th percentileP51
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.2pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (53.2) + 9% ML (47.9) + SHAP(+1.2) = 53.9
Factor quality: +0.6pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 14.6%. Max drawdown 47% (-12.0 pts). Price momentum -52% (-9.4 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -4.0 points ($2.2B market cap)-4.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.0pt (conviction=95)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -7 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: Pipeline concentration: $2.2B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #196 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
RARE31.8N/A20.1%-85.5%$2.2B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

No analyst sentiment data available for RARE.

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 20.1%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 94/100Score impact: -7.5pt

Volume
100
2.7M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$61M/day
Float
97
93M shares
Mkt Cap
60
$2.2B
Range
100
137% spread
Composite Liquidity Score94/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$72.89$146.9167.4%Wide
2022$33.36$88.1290.2%Wide
2023$31.52$54.9854.2%Wide
2024$37.02$60.3748%Wide
2025$18.41$46.5086.6%Wide
3-Year Range
106.5%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
96.4%
Outstanding Shares
96M
Bid-Ask Spread
137.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.