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19

XENE

🏥 Healthcare

Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Conservative #1323Aggressive #1347Moderate RiskLow 27F↑ 29pt
$44.58-0.48%
Day High$45.41
Day Low$43.57
Volume0.6M
Mkt Cap$3.4B
52W Low $2752W High $47
Market Cap
$3.3B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
0.0%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-28.5%
Profit Margin
-4084.5%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.01

Why This Score

XENE scores 18.5 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.01) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (12%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (12.2%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -13.3 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, XENE would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score18.5
Fundamental Score34.3
ML Score4.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
8.1
6 Month
9.0
Primary
1 Year
9.5

Quality Assessment

D
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $3.3B biotech/pharma — limited product diversification
Speculative Classification
Anomalous margin data — extreme values suggest one-time events or accounting irregularities.
Conservative score reduced by 4 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
65
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
83
Grade A
Base
24.2
SHAP
+0.1
Factors
-1.3
Conviction
-2.2
Divergence
-2.3
Final
18.5
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)43.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)69.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)85.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-17.4% to -10.6%
Medium-term
-23.9% to -14.1%
Long-term
-30.2% to -17.3%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 4

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+30.4%
Coverage20 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score64.7/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+4.9%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.59)
Relative Strength vs Sector-12.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.0)
Momentum Quality+0.091
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
6%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P41
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P40
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P28
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 54 relative to sector peers54/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 25th percentileP25
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +0.1pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (53.7) + 9% ML (23.9) + SHAP(+0.1) = 51.1—
Factor quality: -1.3pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 12.2%. Max drawdown 24% (-6.6 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($3.3B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction penalty: -2.2pt (conviction=27)—
Divergence penalty: -2.9pt (fund 29pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by -28 pointsGrade D
Quality concern: Non-operating gain: net margin (-4084.5%) exceeds operating margin (-4543.7%) by 459pp — likely one-time item; Pipeline concentration: $3.3B biotech/pharma — limited product diversificationFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #304 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
XENE18.5N/A0.0%-4084.5%$3.3B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy20 analysts
Buy: 20
Price Target
$57consensus
Low $44Median $58High $66
+27.0% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, engages in developing therapeutics to treat patients with neurological disorders in Canada. Its clinical development pipeline includes XEN496, A Kv7 potassium channel opener that is Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of KCNQ2 developmental and epilepsy encephalopathy; and XEN1101, A Kv7 potassium channel opener, which is in Phase II clinical trial for the treatment of epilepsy and other neurological disorders. The company's product candidates also comprise NBI-921352, a selective Nav1.6 sodium channel inhibitor that is in Phase II clinical trials for the treatment of SCN8A developmental and epileptic encephalopathy, and other potential indications, including adult focal epilepsy; and XEN007, A central nervous system-acting calcium channel modulator, which is in Phase II clinical trials. It has a license and collaboration agreement with the Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. to develop treatments for epilepsy; and with Flexion Therapeutics, Inc. to develop PCRX301 (XEN402, a Nav1.7 inhibitor) for the treatment of post-operative pain. Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc. was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Burnaby, Canada.

CEO
Ian C. Mortimer
Employees
316
Beta
0.93
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
67.8
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-4.3%
High: $46.6
From 52W Low
+66.7%
Low: $26.74
Moving Averages
10-Day
$42.70
Above
20-Day
$42.20
Above
50-Day
$42.50
Above
200-Day
$37.90
Above
60-Day Support
$39.29
60-Day Resistance
$46.6
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 76/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+17.6%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+6.01%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.9x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$0$0$8M$0
Gross Profit$-77M$-632,000$8M$0
Operating Income$-96M$-94M$-73M$-77M
Net Income$-91M$-85M$-65M$-66M
EPS (Diluted)$-1.15$-1.07$-0.83$-0.84
Gross MarginN/AN/A100.0%N/A
Operating MarginN/AN/A-969.8%N/A
Net MarginN/AN/A-867.3%N/A

Why This Stock

Healthcare

Tradability FilterGrade A — 83/100Score impact: -22.7pt

Volume
95
873K avg/day
Dollar Vol
92
$37M/day
Float
60
0K shares
Mkt Cap
63
$3.3B
Range
97
74% spread
Composite Liquidity Score83/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$14.65$36.4285.3%Wide
2022$24.60$41.3950.9%Wide
2023$27.99$47.0050.7%Wide
2024$35.53$50.9935.7%Wide
2025$26.74$46.6054.2%Wide
3-Year Range
62.4%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
74.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.