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AAPG

🏥 Healthcare

ASCENTAGE PHARMA GROUP INTERNATIONAL

Conservative #1457Aggressive #1423Moderate RiskMixed 48F↑ 26pt
$25.05+0.20%
Day High$25.50
Day Low$25.05
Volume0.0M
Mkt Cap$2.3B
52W Low $1852W High $48
Market Cap
$2.3B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
341.8%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
56.2%
Profit Margin
-296.8%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
2.58

Why This Score

AAPG scores 0.0 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Positive but moderate momentum (25%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 25-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (20.3%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 2.58) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Net penalties of -26.8 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, AAPG would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score0.0
Fundamental Score20.4
ML Score13.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
11.1
6 Month
12.4
Primary
1 Year
13.1

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $2.3B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
3.9%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
48
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
0
Grade Fvery low volume, very low dollar volume
Base
2.0
SHAP
+1.2
Factors
-0.7
Conviction
-0.2
Divergence
-2.4
Final
0.0
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)54.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)35.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)62.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-35.1% to -23.1%
Medium-term
-47.9% to -31.9%
Long-term
-61.9% to -37.9%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 13

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score48.2/100
News Volume0 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum+0.3%
6M Momentum-0.4%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+69.1%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.57)
Relative Strength vs Sector+0.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.2)
Momentum Quality+0.141
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P96
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P40
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P66
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.2σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 54 relative to sector peers54/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 28th percentileP28
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.2pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (53.6) + 9% ML (26.9) + SHAP(+1.2) = 52.4—
Factor quality: -0.7pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 20.3%. Max drawdown 44% (-12.0 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -4.0 points ($2.3B market cap)-4.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -2.4pt (fund 26pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -11 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (113.9%) — earnings quality concern; Pipeline concentration: $2.3B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary risk; High leverage: D/E ratio of 2.6x — elevated balance sheet riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #342 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
AAPG0.0N/A341.8%-296.8%$2.3B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Price Target
$48consensus
Low $45Median $48High $51
+91.6% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Ascentage Pharma Group International, a clinical-stage biotechnology company, develops therapies for cancers, chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV), and age-related diseases in Mainland China. The company's primary product candidate is HQP1351, a BCR-ABL inhibitor targeting BCR-ABL1 mutants, including those with the T315I mutation. It also develops APG-2575, an oral administered Bcl-2 selective inhibitor for hematologic malignancies and solid tumors; APG-115, an oral small molecule inhibitor of the MDM2-p53 protein-protein interactions to treat solid tumors and hematological malignancies; and APG-1252, a small molecule drug to restore apoptosis through dual inhibition of the Bcl-2 and Bcl-xL proteins for the treatment of small-cell lung cancer, non-small cell lung cancer, neuroendocrine tumor, and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. In addition, the company is developing APG-1387, a small molecule inhibitor of apoptosis proteins for advanced solid tumors and chronic HBV infection; APG-2449, an oral inhibitor of FAK, ROS1, and ALK kinases; APG-5918, an orally available and selective embryonic ectoderm development inhibitor; APG-265, a MDM2 protein degrader; and UBX1967/1325, which are Bcl-2 inhibitors. In addition, it is also involved in medical research and development; clinical development; clinical trial operation; venture capital investment; rental services; and science and technology promotion services. The company has collaboration relationships with biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies; and research institutions. Ascentage Pharma Group International was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Suzhou, China.

CEO
Dajun Yang
Employees
567
Beta
0.88
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
55.6
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-48.3%
High: $48.45
From 52W Low
+42.7%
Low: $17.56
Moving Averages
10-Day
$24.50
Above
20-Day
$24.30
Above
50-Day
$26.20
Below
200-Day
$33.30
Below
60-Day Support
$23.14
60-Day Resistance
$33.09
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 9/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-24.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+6.01%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.61x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
54
Confidence: 40%
Recent Gap Down

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ2 2025Q4 2024Q2 2024Q4 2023
Revenue$234M$157M$824M$79M
Gross Profit$212M$143M$809M$67M
Operating Income$-554M$-567M$188M$-532M
Net Income$-591M$-568M$163M$-523M
EPS (Diluted)$-6.92$-7.28$2.20$-7.20
Gross Margin90.7%91.1%98.2%84.4%
Operating Margin-237.1%-361.2%22.8%-671.1%
Net Margin-252.8%-362.3%19.8%-660.0%

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 341.8%

Tradability FilterGrade F — 0/100Score impact: -28.1pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor — it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
0
3K avg/day
Dollar Vol
0
$85K/day
Float
0
7M shares
Mkt Cap
0
$2.3B
Range
0
176% spread
Composite Liquidity Score0/100
FDCBA
very low volumevery low dollar volumelow float

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
weinstein declining

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
28.4%
Outstanding Shares
23M
Bid-Ask Spread
176.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.