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29

TRVI

๐Ÿฅ Healthcare

Trevi Therapeutics, Inc.

Conservative #1111Aggressive #869Moderate RiskFโ†‘ 36pt
$11.52+1.41%
Day High$11.57
Day Low$11.06
Volume1.0M
Mkt Cap$1.5B
52W Low $452W High $14
Market Cap
$1.5B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
0.0%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-64.8%
Profit Margin
0.0%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.00

Why This Score

TRVI scores 28.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.00) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (130%) increases mean-reversion probability. 3-point penalty applied.
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (18.6%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -12.2 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, TRVI would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score28.6
Fundamental Score41.3
ML Score27.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
21.3
6 Month
23.8
Primary
1 Year
25.1

Quality Assessment

F
Quality Grade
Low quality โ€” significant fundamental weaknesses
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $1.4B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary risk
Speculative Classification
Speculative micro-cap โ€” no earnings, sub-$2B market cap, momentum-driven. Position sizing should reflect elevated risk.
Conservative score reduced by 3 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.3%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
91
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
77
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
75
Grade B
Base
30.4
SHAP
+0.3
Conviction
-2.1
Final
28.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

33AVG
Value50
Quality7
Growth20
Stability72
Investment17

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)42.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)83.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)92.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-4.2% to +0.3%
Medium-term
-6.3% to +0.4%
Long-term
-8.5% to +0.6%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 27

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score76.6/100
Target Upside+73.9%
Coverage16 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score90.6/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+1.3%
6M Momentum+0.4%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+86.7%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.33)
Relative Strength vs Sector+105.7%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+1.026
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
5%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P41
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P22
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P43
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 41 relative to sector peers41/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 27th percentileP27
Blended score: 80% fundamental (41) + 20% ML (27) = 38.438.4
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.2%; Drawdown 21% โ†’ 0.0pt; Positive momentum 130% โ†’ -3.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade F: quality flags triggered โ€” see details below. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade F
SHAP feature alignment: +0.3pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: -2.1pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors
Quality concern: Pipeline concentration: $1.4B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag
Speculative: SPEC_MICRO (3.0pt penalty)Speculative
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare โ€” Rank #213 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
TRVI28.6N/A0.0%0.0%$1.5B
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
ASND78.316.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.3B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
Sector Average36.641.9161.5%-3292.7%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy16 analysts
Strong Buy: 1Buy: 15
Price Target
$19consensus
Low $16Median $19High $24
+67.1% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Trevi Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of Haduvio to treat serious neurologically mediated conditions. The company is developing Haduvio, an oral extended-release formulation of nalbuphine, which is in phase IIb/III clinical trial for the treatment of chronic pruritus, chronic cough in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. It has a license agreement with Endo Pharmaceuticals Inc. to develop and commercialize products incorporating nalbuphine hydrochloride in any formulation. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in New Haven, Connecticut.

CEO
Jennifer L. Good
Employees
31
Beta
0.96
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
58.3
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-19.9%
High: $14.39
From 52W Low
+176.3%
Low: $4.17
Moving Averages
10-Day
$10.80
Above
20-Day
$10.90
Above
50-Day
$11.30
Above
200-Day
$9.20
Above
60-Day Support
$9.82
60-Day Resistance
$14.39
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 87/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+25.2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+23.6%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.79x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$0$0$0$0
Gross Profit$0$0$0$-38,000
Operating Income$-14M$-14M$-11M$-12M
Net Income$-12M$-12M$-10M$-11M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.08$-0.09$-0.09$-0.11
Gross MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A
Operating MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A
Net MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A

Why This Stock

Healthcare

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 75/100Score impact: -34.9pt

Volume
100
1.8M avg/day
Dollar Vol
80
$20M/day
Float
40
0K shares
Mkt Cap
48
$1.5B
Range
100
252% spread
Composite Liquidity Score75/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$0.66$3.02128.2%Wide
2022$0.46$4.68164.2%Wide
2023$0.97$3.50113.2%Wide
2024$1.27$4.68114.6%Wide
2025$3.47$14.39122.3%Wide
3-Year Range
174.7%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
252.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.