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38

TVTX

🏥 Healthcare

Travere Therapeutics, Inc.

Conservative #908Aggressive #40Moderate RiskModerate 62ML↑ 19pt
$29.34-4.99%
Day High$31.49
Day Low$29.25
Volume1.0M
Mkt Cap$2.6B
52W Low $1352W High $42
Market Cap
$2.7B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
110.5%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
84.4%
Profit Margin
-10.2%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
2.96

Why This Score

TVTX scores 38.0 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Positive but moderate momentum (30%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (21.1%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 2.96) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-5.0 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score38.0
Fundamental Score30.0
ML Score78.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
71.1
6 Month
79.5
Primary
1 Year
83.7

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $2.7B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary risk
High leverage: D/E ratio of 3.0x — elevated balance sheet risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
3.8%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
58
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
71
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
94
Grade A
Base
39.6
SHAP
+1.2
Factors
+2.1
Divergence
-5.0
Final
38.0
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)52.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)76.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)70.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+14.5% to +21.5%
Medium-term
+22.5% to +33.2%
Long-term
+32.3% to +46.9%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 78

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score70.8/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage18 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score58.3/100
News Volume0 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.3%
6M Momentum+0.6%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-29.0%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.51)
Relative Strength vs Sector+5.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.4)
Momentum Quality+0.213
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
2%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P92
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P40
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P64
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 66 relative to sector peers66/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 84th percentileP84
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.2pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (65.6) + 9% ML (81.9) + SHAP(+1.2) = 68.2—
Factor quality: +2.1pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 21.1%. Max drawdown 29% (-8.4 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -4.0 points ($2.7B market cap)-4.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -1.2pt (ML 19pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -11 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (175.2%) — earnings quality concern; Pipeline concentration: $2.7B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary risk; High leverage: D/E ratio of 3.0x — elevated balance sheet riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #145 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
TVTX38.0N/A110.5%-10.2%$2.7B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

No analyst sentiment data available for TVTX.

Company Overviewvia FMP

Travere Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the identification, development, commercialization, and delivering of therapies for the treatment of rare diseases. Its marketed products include Chenodal, a synthetic oral form of chenodeoxycholic acid for the treatment of radiolucent stones in gallbladders; Cholbam, a cholic acid capsule to treat pediatric and adult patients with bile acid synthesis disorders due to single enzyme defects, as well as for adjunctive treatment of patients with peroxisomal disorders; and Thiola and Thiola EC, a tiopronin tablet for the treatment of homozygous cystinuria. The company's product candidates also consist of Sparsentan, which is in Phase III clinical trial for the treatment of focal segmental glomerulosclerosis and immunoglobulin A nephropathy; and TVT-058, a novel investigational human enzyme replacement candidate, which is in Phase I/II clinical trials for the treatment of classical homocystinuria. It has a cooperative research and development agreement with National Institutes of Health's National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences and patient advocacy organizations, CDG Care, and Alagille Syndrome Alliance for the identification of potential small molecule therapeutics for NGLY1 deficiency and Alagille syndrome. The company was formerly known as Retrophin, Inc. and changed its name to Travere Therapeutics, Inc. in November 2020. Travere Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

CEO
Eric Dube
Employees
385
Beta
0.81
Industry
Biotechnology

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 110.5%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 94/100Score impact: -37.9pt

Volume
100
2.1M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$65M/day
Float
96
90M shares
Mkt Cap
62
$2.7B
Range
100
226% spread
Composite Liquidity Score94/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$12.75$31.6585.1%Wide
2022$17.97$31.5154.7%Wide
2023$5.25$23.18126.1%Wide
2024$5.12$20.33119.5%Wide
2025$12.91$42.13106.2%Wide
3-Year Range
156.7%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
100.9%
Outstanding Shares
89M
Bid-Ask Spread
226.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.