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CGON

🏥 Healthcare

CG Oncology, Inc. Common stock

Conservative #1144Aggressive #812Low RiskLow 14F↑ 35pt
$56.99-2.31%
Day High$60.00
Day Low$56.64
Volume0.5M
Mkt Cap$4.6B
52W Low $1552W High $60
Market Cap
$4.6B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
3774.4%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
N/A
Profit Margin
0.0%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
1.05

Why This Score

CGON scores 28.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (15.5%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.05) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Net penalties of -13.2 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, CGON would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score28.7
Fundamental Score40.5
ML Score5.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
2.8
6 Month
3.1
Primary
1 Year
3.3

Quality Assessment

D
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $4.6B biotech/pharma — limited product diversification

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
81
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
91
Grade A
Base
33.3
SHAP
+3.5
Factors
-1.6
Conviction
-3.5
Divergence
-3.1
Final
28.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)45.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)91.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)89.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage78%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-21.4% to -14.1%
Medium-term
-29.9% to -19.3%
Long-term
-37.6% to -23.9%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 5

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+37.0%
Coverage9 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score81.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+1.0%
6M Momentum+0.9%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+7.1%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.93)
Relative Strength vs Sector+74.7%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.918
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P99
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P24
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P59
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+2.7σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 52 relative to sector peers52/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 17th percentileP17
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.5pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (51.9) + 9% ML (15.6) + SHAP(+3.5) = 52.1—
Factor quality: -1.6pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 15.5%Low
Momentum mean-reversion: -1.0pt (99% 12m momentum)—
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($4.6B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction penalty: -3.5pt (conviction=14)—
Divergence penalty: -3.8pt (fund 35pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by -28 pointsGrade D
Quality concern: Non-operating gain: net margin (0.0%) exceeds operating margin (-3069.0%) by 3069pp — likely one-time item; Pipeline concentration: $4.6B biotech/pharma — limited product diversificationFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #232 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CGON28.7N/A3774.4%0.0%$4.6B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy9 analysts
Buy: 9
Price Target
$79consensus
Low $70Median $75High $93
+38.6% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

CG Oncology Inc is a clinical biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing a potential backbone bladder-sparing therapeutic for patients afflicted with bladder cancer. Their product candidate cretostimogene, is initially in clinical development for the treatment of patients with high-risk Non-Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer who are unresponsive to Bacillus Calmette Guerin (BCG) therapy, the current standard-of-care for high-risk NMIBC.

CEO
Arthur Kuan
Employees
113
Beta
1.34
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
64.4
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-5%
High: $60
From 52W Low
+285.1%
Low: $14.8
Moving Averages
10-Day
$55.30
Above
20-Day
$53.80
Above
50-Day
$49.00
Above
200-Day
$36.70
Above
60-Day Support
$37.01
60-Day Resistance
$60
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 75/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+55.3%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+23.62%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.65x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%
Key Reversal Detected (2026-02-25)

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$2M$0$52,000$456,000
Gross Profit$89,000$-156,000$52,000$456,000
Operating Income$-51M$-49M$-42M$-38M
Net Income$-44M$-41M$-34M$-32M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.57$-0.54$-0.45$-0.49
Gross Margin5.3%N/A100.0%100.0%
Operating Margin-3069.0%N/A-81161.5%-8344.1%
Net Margin-2629.5%N/A-66253.8%-6973.2%

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 3774.4%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 91/100Score impact: -18.0pt

Volume
100
1.1M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$62M/day
Float
79
49M shares
Mkt Cap
67
$4.6B
Range
100
305% spread
Composite Liquidity Score91/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2024$25.77$50.2364.4%Wide
2025$14.80$46.01102.6%Wide
3-Year Range
109%
Narrow Years
0 / 2
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
60.4%
Outstanding Shares
81M
Bid-Ask Spread
305.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.