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27

SMMT

🏥 Healthcare

Summit Therapeutics Inc.

Conservative #1191Aggressive #678Moderate RiskF↑ 43pt
$15.68-2.73%
Day High$16.51
Day Low$15.65
Volume1.5M
Mkt Cap$11.7B
52W Low $1452W High $37
Market Cap
$11.9B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
0.0%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
64.0%
Profit Margin
0.0%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.03

Why This Score

SMMT scores 26.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.03) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (15.2%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -15.8 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, SMMT would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score26.8
Fundamental Score27.9
ML Score71.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
5.6
6 Month
6.2
Primary
1 Year
6.5

Quality Assessment

D
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
36
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
70
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
96
Grade A
Base
36.5
SHAP
+0.3
Factors
-1.0
Conviction
-4.8
Divergence
-4.2
Final
26.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)58.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)33.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)64.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-21.7% to -13.3%
Medium-term
-29.7% to -17.6%
Long-term
-37.3% to -21.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 71

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score70.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage20 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score36.4/100
News Volume0 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.3%
6M Momentum-0.4%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+9.2%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.75)
Relative Strength vs Sector-52.1%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (1.8)
Momentum Quality-0.152
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
11%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P41
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P40
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P48
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 64 relative to sector peers64/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 21th percentileP21
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +0.3pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (64.2) + 9% ML (20.1) + SHAP(+0.3) = 60.5—
Factor quality: -1.0pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 15.2%. Max drawdown 45% (-12.0 pts). Price momentum -28% (-4.5 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($11.9B market cap)+2.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -4.8pt (conviction=0)—
Divergence penalty: -5.0pt (fund 43pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by -18 pointsGrade D
Quality concern: Earnings/revenue growth ratio of Infinityx — earnings quality suspect; High accrual ratio (70.5%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #246 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
SMMT26.8N/A0.0%0.0%$11.9B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy20 analysts
Buy: 16Hold: 4
Price Target
$26consensus
Low $16Median $24High $40
+65.8% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Summit Therapeutics Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, discovers, develops, and commercializes medicines to treat infectious diseases in the United States and Latin America. It conducts clinical programs focusing on Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI). The company's lead product candidate is ridinilazole, an orally administered small molecule antibiotic that is in Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of CDI. It also offers SMT-738, for combating multidrug resistant infections primarily carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae infections; and DDS-04 series for the potential treatment of infections caused by the Enterobacteriaceae. The company was founded in 2003 and is based in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

CEO
Robert W. Duggan
Employees
159
Beta
-1.43
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
63.8
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-57.5%
High: $36.91
From 52W Low
+13.4%
Low: $13.83
Moving Averages
10-Day
$15.60
Above
20-Day
$15.20
Above
50-Day
$16.60
Below
200-Day
$20.60
Below
60-Day Support
$13.83
60-Day Resistance
$20.2
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 13/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-23.9%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-6.53%
Falling
Volume Ratio
0.78x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
90
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$0$0$0$0
Gross Profit$-4,355$-42,000$-37,000$-25,000
Operating Income$57M$-234M$-568M$-67M
Net Income$-219M$-232M$-566M$-63M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.28$-0.31$-0.76$-0.09
Gross MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A
Operating MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A
Net MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A

Why This Stock

Healthcare

Tradability FilterGrade A — 96/100Score impact: -22.8pt

Volume
100
2.6M avg/day
Dollar Vol
95
$43M/day
Float
100
103M shares
Mkt Cap
81
$11.9B
Range
100
167% spread
Composite Liquidity Score96/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$2.23$8.70118.4%Wide
2022$0.66$5.61157.9%Wide
2023$1.25$5.78128.9%Wide
2024$2.10$33.89176.7%Wide
2025$15.55$36.9181.4%Wide
3-Year Range
186.9%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
13.8%
Outstanding Shares
744M
Bid-Ask Spread
167.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.