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IONS

🏥 Healthcare

Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Conservative #716Aggressive #501Low RiskModerate 63ML↑ 18pt
$80.93-5.29%
Day High$85.11
Day Low$80.47
Volume3.1M
Mkt Cap$13.1B
52W Low $2452W High $87
Market Cap
$13.5B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
-10.5%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-23.9%
Profit Margin
-26.5%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
2.41

Why This Score

IONS scores 44.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (143%) increases mean-reversion probability. 3-point penalty applied.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (15.5%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 2.41) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-7.3 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score44.7
Fundamental Score43.3
ML Score67.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
68.0
6 Month
76.0
Primary
1 Year
80.0

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality
Speculative Classification
Speculative growth — negative margins and ROE with momentum-driven price action. High risk of mean reversion.
Conservative score reduced by 3 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
66
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
66
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
97
Grade A
Base
42.0
SHAP
+2.3
Factors
+1.7
Divergence
-1.3
Final
44.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)28.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)92.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)83.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+4.1% to +9.2%
Medium-term
+6.1% to +13.8%
Long-term
+9.4% to +19.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 67

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score66.4/100
Target Upside+4.1%
Coverage32 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score65.6/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+1.4%
6M Momentum+0.9%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+53.8%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.62)
Relative Strength vs Sector+118.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+1.366
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
17%
Moderate — watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P10
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P40
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P48
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 62 relative to sector peers62/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 80th percentileP80
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.6pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (61.6) + 9% ML (77.7) + SHAP(+2.6) = 65.6—
Factor quality: +1.9pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 15.5%Low
Momentum mean-reversion: -3.1pt (143% 12m momentum)—
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($13.5B market cap)+2.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -1.2pt (ML 18pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: High leverage: D/E ratio of 2.4x — elevated balance sheet riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #107 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
IONS44.7N/A-10.5%-26.5%$13.5B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%—

Company Overviewvia FMP

Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. discovers and develops RNA-targeted therapeutics in the United States. The company offers SPINRAZA for spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) in pediatric and adult patients; TEGSEDI, an injection for the treatment of polyneuropathy of hereditary transthyretin-mediated amyloidosis in adults; and WAYLIVRA, a treatment for familial chylomicronemia syndrome and familial partial lipodystrophy. It also develops medicines for various indications that are in phase 3 study, including Eplontersen as a monthly self-administered subcutaneous injection to treat all types of TTR amyloidosis; Olezarsen for patients with severe hypertriglyceridemia (SHTG); Donidalorsen for patients with hereditary angioedema; ION363 for patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis; Pelacarsen for patients with established cardiovascular disease and elevated lipoprotein(a); and Tofersen to inhibit the production of superoxide dismutase 1. In addition, the company develops medicines for metabolic diseases, infectious diseases, renal diseases, ophthalmic diseases, and cancer. It has a strategic collaboration with Biogen Inc.; and collaboration and license agreement with AstraZeneca, Bayer AG, GlaxoSmithKline plc, Novartis AG, Roche, Janssen Biotech, Inc., and Flamingo Therapeutics, Inc. Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was founded in 1989 and is based in Carlsbad, California.

CEO
Brett Monia
Employees
1,069
Beta
0.31
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
39.8
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-6.7%
High: $86.74
From 52W Low
+237.9%
Low: $23.95
Moving Averages
10-Day
$82.80
Below
20-Day
$83.40
Below
50-Day
$81.20
Below
200-Day
$61.00
Above
60-Day Support
$74.2
60-Day Resistance
$86.74
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 90/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+32.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+32.71%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$157M$452M$132M$227M
Gross Profit$154M$448M$130M$223M
Operating Income$-160M$140M$-147M$-111M
Net Income$-129M$124M$-147M$-104M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.80$0.68$-0.93$-0.66
Gross Margin98.5%99.1%98.9%98.3%
Operating Margin-102.2%30.9%-111.6%-48.9%
Net Margin-82.1%27.3%-111.6%-46.1%

Why This Stock

Healthcare

Tradability FilterGrade A — 97/100Score impact: -23.2pt

Volume
100
2.1M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$176M/day
Float
100
161M shares
Mkt Cap
82
$13.5B
Range
100
262% spread
Composite Liquidity Score97/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$25.04$57.4478.6%Wide
2022$28.25$48.8253.4%Wide
2023$32.69$52.2746.1%Wide
2024$33.33$54.4448.1%Wide
2025$23.95$83.61110.9%Wide
3-Year Range
110.9%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.5x dampening
revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
99.1%
Outstanding Shares
162M
Bid-Ask Spread
262.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.