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33

RNA

🏥 Healthcare

Avidity Biosciences, Inc.

Conservative #1034Aggressive #203Moderate RiskLow 20F↑ 33pt
$72.80+0.07%
Day High$72.90
Day Low$72.68
Volume11.6M
Mkt Cap$11.2B
52W Low $2252W High $73
Market Cap
$11.3B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
14.0%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-51.9%
Profit Margin
-2634.6%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.03

Why This Score

RNA scores 32.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.03) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (138%) increases mean-reversion probability. 3-point penalty applied.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (19.4%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -23.4 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, RNA would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score32.9
Fundamental Score40.1
ML Score90.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
8.9
6 Month
9.9
Primary
1 Year
10.4

Quality Assessment

D
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns
Speculative Classification
Speculative growth — negative margins and ROE with momentum-driven price action. High risk of mean reversion.
Anomalous margin data — extreme values suggest one-time events or accounting irregularities.
Conservative score reduced by 7 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.1%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
63
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
63
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
93
Grade A
Base
40.1
SHAP
+2.1
Factors
-1.2
Conviction
-2.9
Divergence
-5.2
Final
32.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)46.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)87.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)81.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-15.5% to -9.2%
Medium-term
-21.1% to -12.1%
Long-term
-26.7% to -14.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 90

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score62.5/100
Target Upside+2.4%
Coverage20 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score63.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+1.4%
6M Momentum+0.6%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+81.4%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.41)
Relative Strength vs Sector+113.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+1.199
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
5%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P61
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P40
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P36
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 58 relative to sector peers58/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 26th percentileP26
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.1pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (58.2) + 9% ML (24.8) + SHAP(+2.1) = 57.3—
Factor quality: -1.2pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 19.4%. Max drawdown 13% (-2.0 pts)Moderate
Momentum mean-reversion: -2.9pt (138% 12m momentum)—
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($11.3B market cap)+2.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -2.9pt (conviction=20)—
Divergence penalty: -3.4pt (fund 33pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by -26 pointsGrade D
Quality concern: Non-operating gain: net margin (-2634.6%) exceeds operating margin (-2934.9%) by 300pp — likely one-time itemFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #187 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
RNA32.9N/A14.0%-2634.6%$11.3B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy20 analysts
Buy: 10Hold: 10
Price Target
$75consensus
Low $72Median $72High $96
+2.6% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Avidity Biosciences, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the development of oligonucleotide-based therapies. It develops antibody oligonucleotide conjugates (AOC) that are designed to treat a range of serious diseases. The company's lead product candidate AOC 1001 is used for the treatment of myotonic dystrophy type 1, a rare monogenic muscle disease; AOC 1044 for the treatment of Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy; and AOC 1020 designed to treat facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy which are in preclinical stage. It also offers Lumizyme therapy for Pompe diseases. Avidity Biosciences, Inc. was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

CEO
Sarah Boyce
Employees
391
Beta
0.93
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
56.5
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-0.4%
High: $73.06
From 52W Low
+238.4%
Low: $21.51
Moving Averages
10-Day
$72.90
Below
20-Day
$72.80
Below
50-Day
$72.50
Above
200-Day
$52.50
Above
60-Day Support
$71.12
60-Day Resistance
$73.06
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 95/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+38.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+32.07%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.77x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%
Breakout Volume Confirmed

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$860,000$12M$4M$2M
Gross Profit$-636,000$12M$-134M$2M
Operating Income$-254M$-189M$-171M$-132M
Net Income$-237M$-174M$-157M$-116M
EPS (Diluted)$-1.59$-1.27$-1.21$-0.90
Gross Margin-74.0%100.0%-3490.5%100.0%
Operating Margin-29590.5%-1513.5%-4448.7%-8360.9%
Net Margin-27569.9%-1398.3%-4089.3%-7360.0%

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 14.0%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 93/100Score impact: -35.2pt

Volume
100
2.2M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$158M/day
Float
80
0K shares
Mkt Cap
81
$11.3B
Range
100
240% spread
Composite Liquidity Score93/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$17.58$29.5950.9%Wide
2022$9.83$24.4085.1%Wide
2023$4.83$25.74136.9%Wide
2024$8.86$56.00145.4%Wide
2025$21.51$72.61108.6%Wide
3-Year Range
175.1%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
240.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.