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EXAS

๐Ÿฅ Healthcare

Exact Sciences Corporation

Conservative #998Aggressive #795Moderate RiskMixed 40MLโ†‘ 30pt
$103.27-0.17%
Day High$103.45
Day Low$103.20
Volume2.1M
Mkt Cap$19.7B
52W Low $3952W High $104
Market Cap
$19.6B
P/E Ratio
48.4
Sector avg: 252.3
Rev Growth
17.7%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
79.8%
Profit Margin
-6.4%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
1.05

Why This Score

EXAS scores 34.5 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (118%) increases mean-reversion probability. 3-point penalty applied.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 48.4x earnings โ€” requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (17.8%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.05) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-4.7 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score34.5
Fundamental Score40.5
ML Score14.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
75.9
6 Month
84.9
Primary
1 Year
89.3

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
62
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
62
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
98
Grade A
Base
32.2
SHAP
+2.2
Factors
+1.8
Divergence
-1.7
Final
34.5
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

65AVG
Value55
Quality40
Growth90
Stability60
Investment80

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)43.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)86.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)60.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+7.5% to +13.0%
Medium-term
+12.0% to +20.5%
Long-term
+18.5% to +30.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 14

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score62.2/100
Target Upside-0.3%
Coverage41 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score62.3/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+1.2%
6M Momentum+1.2%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+0.0%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (1.00)
Relative Strength vs Sector+93.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.982
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
3%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P65
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P11
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P73
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 58 relative to sector peers58/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 88th percentileP88
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (58.3) + 9% ML (88.3) + SHAP(+2.4) = 63.4โ€”
Factor quality: +2.0pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 17.8%. Max drawdown 17% (-3.4 pts)Moderate
Momentum mean-reversion: -1.9pt (118% 12m momentum)โ€”
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($19.6B market cap)+2.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -1.0pt (conviction=40)โ€”
Divergence penalty: -3.0pt (ML 30pt higher)โ€”
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare โ€” Rank #174 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
EXAS34.548.417.7%-6.4%$19.6B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy41 analysts
Buy: 22Hold: 17Sell: 2
Price Target
$103consensus
Low $85Median $105High $105
-0.1% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Exact Sciences Corporation provides cancer screening and diagnostic test products in the United States and internationally. The company offers Cologuard, a non-invasive stool-based DNA screening test to detect DNA and hemoglobin biomarkers associated with colorectal cancer and pre-cancer. It also provides Oncotype DX, a gene expression tests for breast, prostate, and colon cancers; Oncotype Test, a tissue test delivering tumor profiling to aid therapy selection for patients with advanced, metastatic, refractory, or recurrent cancer; Oncotype DX AR-V7 Nucleus Detect Test, a liquid-based test for advanced stage prostate cancer; Oncomap ExTra, that provides a complete biological picture of certain refractory, rare, or aggressive cancers; and Covid-19 testing services. The company's pipeline products focus on enhancing the Cologuard test's performance characteristics and developing blood and other fluid-based tests. It has license agreements with MAYO Foundation for Medical Education and Research; and Hologic, Inc. Exact Sciences Corporation was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Madison, Wisconsin.

CEO
Kevin T. Conroy
Employees
6,900
Beta
1.42
Industry
Medical - Diagnostics & Research
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
75.3
Overbought
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-0.4%
High: $103.67
From 52W Low
+166.1%
Low: $38.81
Moving Averages
10-Day
$103.30
Below
20-Day
$103.00
Above
50-Day
$102.40
Above
200-Day
$70.20
Above
60-Day Support
$100.95
60-Day Resistance
$103.67
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 90/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+47.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+31.22%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.82x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$878M$851M$811M$707M
Gross Profit$616M$584M$562M$501M
Operating Income$-77M$-26M$-2M$-96M
Net Income$-86M$-20M$-1M$-101M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.45$-0.10$-0.01$-0.54
Gross Margin70.1%68.6%69.3%70.8%
Operating Margin-8.7%-3.0%-0.3%-13.6%
Net Margin-9.8%-2.3%-0.1%-14.3%

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 17.7%

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 98/100Score impact: -14.4pt

Volume
100
5.3M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$552M/day
Float
100
187M shares
Mkt Cap
85
$19.6B
Range
100
167% spread
Composite Liquidity Score98/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$71.81$140.8564.9%Wide
2022$29.27$84.4697.1%Wide
2023$45.89$100.7774.8%Wide
2024$40.62$79.6264.9%Wide
2025$38.81$102.6690.3%Wide
3-Year Range
90.3%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
98.1%
Outstanding Shares
191M
Bid-Ask Spread
167.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.