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37

MRNA

πŸ₯ Healthcare

Moderna, Inc.

Conservative #943Aggressive #624Moderate RiskModerate 76
$51.37+1.68%
Day High$53.85
Day Low$50.67
Volume7.9M
Mkt Cap$20.1B
52W Low $2252W High $55
Market Cap
$19.5B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
-39.2%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
20.8%
Profit Margin
-145.2%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.22

Why This Score

MRNA scores 36.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Positive but moderate momentum (36%) β€” steady appreciation without overheating.
  • High conviction (76/100) β€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Above-average volatility (16.1%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-3.0 points) applied. MRNA's rank of #943 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score36.8
Fundamental Score36.3
ML Score43.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
32.2
6 Month
36.0
Primary
1 Year
37.9

Quality Assessment

C
Earnings Grade
Mixed fundamentals, potential quality issues
Speculative Classification
Speculative growth β€” negative margins and ROE with momentum-driven price action. High risk of mean reversion.
Conservative score reduced by 3 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
46
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
54
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
98
Grade A
Base
34.7
SHAP
+1.8
Factors
+0.3
Final
36.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)46.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)83.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)50.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-8.8% to -1.5%
Medium-term
-12.5% to -1.7%
Long-term
-16.3% to -2.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs β†’ ML Score: 43

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score53.7/100
Target Upside-31.6%
Coverage27 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score46.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 β€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.4%
6M Momentum+0.8%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-38.9%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.48)
Relative Strength vs Sector+12.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.3)
Momentum Quality+0.297
Momentum BreadthBroad βœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
8%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P7
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P40
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P21
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0Οƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 56 relative to sector peers56/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 44th percentileP44
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.8pt (features align with model priorities)β€”
Blend: 91% fund (55.8) + 9% ML (42.3) + SHAP(+1.8) = 56.4β€”
Factor quality: +0.3pt (multi-factor composite)β€”
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 16.1%. Max drawdown 19% (-4.2 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($19.5B market cap)+2.0 pts
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by -12 pointsGrade C
Quality concern: Elevated non-operating income: 13pp gap between net and operating margin; High accrual ratio (34.4%) β€” earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare β€” Rank #156 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
MRNA36.8N/A-39.2%-145.2%$19.5B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%β€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold27 analysts
Buy: 8Hold: 15Sell: 4
Price Target
$35consensus
Low $17Median $30High $63
-32.1% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, discovers, develops, and commercializes messenger RNA therapeutics and vaccines for the treatment of infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and auto-immune diseases in the United States, Europe, and internationally. Its respiratory vaccines include COVID-19, flu, respiratory syncytial virus, Endemic HCoV, and hMPV+PIV3 vaccines; latent vaccines comprise cytomegalovirus, epstein-barr virus, human immunodeficiency virus, herpes simplex virus, and varicella-zoster virus vaccines; and public health vaccines consists of Zika and Nipah vaccines. The company also offers systemic secreted and cell surface therapeutics; cancer vaccines, such as personalized cancer, KRAS, and checkpoint vaccines; intratumoral immuno-oncology products; localized regenerative, systemic intracellular, and inhaled pulmonary therapeutics. It has strategic alliances with AstraZeneca PLC; Merck & Co., Inc.; Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated; Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Europe) Limited; Carisma Therapeutics, Inc.; Metagenomi, Inc.; the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency; Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority; Institute for Life Changing Medicines; and The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as a collaboration and license agreement with Chiesi Farmaceutici S.P.A. The company was formerly known as Moderna Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Moderna, Inc. in August 2018. Moderna, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

CEO
StΓ©phane Bancel
Employees
5,800
Beta
1.34
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
76.6
Overbought
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-6.9%
High: $55.2
From 52W Low
+130.6%
Low: $22.28
Moving Averages
10-Day
$46.50
Above
20-Day
$44.70
Above
50-Day
$39.70
Above
200-Day
$30.10
Above
60-Day Support
$23.92
60-Day Resistance
$55.2
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 β€” AdvancingScore: 92/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+70.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+8.06%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.91x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
55
Confidence: 90%
Recent Gap Up

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$678M$1.0B$142M$107M
Gross Profit$226M$8M$23M$17M
Operating Income$-857M$-260M$-907M$-1.1B
Net Income$-826M$-200M$-825M$-971M
EPS (Diluted)$-2.11$-0.51$-2.13$-2.52
Gross Margin33.3%0.8%16.2%15.9%
Operating Margin-126.4%-25.6%-638.7%-981.3%
Net Margin-121.8%-19.7%-581.0%-907.5%

Why This Stock

Healthcare

Tradability FilterGrade A β€” 98/100Score impact: -19.3pt

Volume
100
11.8M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$592M/day
Float
100
365M shares
Mkt Cap
85
$19.5B
Range
100
148% spread
Composite Liquidity Score98/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$117.34$497.49123.7%Wide
2022$115.03$249.4273.7%Wide
2023$62.55$207.51107.4%Wide
2024$35.80$170.47130.6%Wide
2025$22.28$48.9274.8%Wide
3-Year Range
161.2%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.3x dampening
severe revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
93.5%
Outstanding Shares
391M
Bid-Ask Spread
148.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.