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15

MLTX

๐Ÿฅ Healthcare

MoonLake Immunotherapeutics

Conservative #1336Aggressive #1346High RiskMixed 49Fโ†‘ 25pt
$17.88-1.87%
Day High$18.14
Day Low$17.51
Volume0.5M
Mkt Cap$1.3B
52W Low $652W High $63
Market Cap
$1.3B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
0.0%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-230.3%
Profit Margin
0.0%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.26

Why This Score

MLTX scores 14.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Above-average volatility (31.0%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-1.6 points) applied. MLTX's rank of #1336 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score14.6
Fundamental Score16.9
ML Score9.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
10.3
6 Month
11.5
Primary
1 Year
12.1

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $1.3B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
2.6%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
34
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
65
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
88
Grade A
Base
15.4
SHAP
-0.4
Factors
-0.3
Conviction
-0.1
Final
14.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)40.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)18.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)62.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-17.5% to -10.0%
Medium-term
-23.4% to -12.7%
Long-term
-29.2% to -15.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 9

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score65.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage15 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score33.5/100
News Volume0 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.6%
6M Momentum-0.7%
Volatility+0.3%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+9.5%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.87)
Relative Strength vs Sector-86.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.0)
Momentum Quality-0.080
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
2%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P41
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P22
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P14
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 53 relative to sector peers53/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 27th percentileP27
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: -0.4pt (features diverge from model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (52.6) + 9% ML (25.6) + SHAP(-0.4) = 49.8โ€”
Factor quality: -0.3pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.3B market cap)-8.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -2.3pt (fund 25pt higher)โ€”
Risk Factors
Risk assessment: very_high. Annualized volatility 31.0%. Max drawdown 87% (-12.0 pts). Price momentum -62% (-10.0 pts)Very_high
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -7 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: Pipeline concentration: $1.3B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare โ€” Rank #311 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
MLTX14.6N/A0.0%0.0%$1.3B
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
ASND78.216.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.3B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
Sector Average36.441.9161.5%-3292.7%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

MoonLake Immunotherapeutics, a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, engages in developing therapies. It is developing Sonelokimab, a novel investigational Nanobody therapy for the treatment of inflammation. The company is involved in conducting Phase II trials for hidradenitis suppurativa, psoriatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, or radiographic axial spondyloarthritis. MoonLake Immunotherapeutics was founded in 2021 and is headquartered in Zug, Switzerland.

CEO
Kristian Reich
Employees
100
Beta
1.21
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
74.6
Overbought
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-71.6%
High: $62.75
From 52W Low
+199.3%
Low: $5.95
Moving Averages
10-Day
$17.70
Above
20-Day
$16.60
Above
50-Day
$15.50
Above
200-Day
$30.80
Below
60-Day Support
$11.06
60-Day Resistance
$19.49
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 10/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-42.2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-18.97%
Falling
Volume Ratio
0.75x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$0$0$0$0
Gross Profit$0$-745,000$-742,000$0
Operating Income$0$-71M$-61M$-47M
Net Income$-64M$-70M$-55M$-40M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.93$-1.10$-0.87$-0.63
Gross MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A
Operating MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A
Net MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A

Why This Stock

Healthcare

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 88/100Score impact: -18.7pt

Volume
100
2.3M avg/day
Dollar Vol
95
$42M/day
Float
85
62M shares
Mkt Cap
46
$1.3B
Range
100
955% spread
Composite Liquidity Score88/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
87.7%
Outstanding Shares
71M
Bid-Ask Spread
955.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.