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VTYX

๐Ÿฅ Healthcare

Ventyx Biosciences, Inc.

Conservative #1272Aggressive #1006High RiskFโ†‘ 49pt
$13.97+0.00%
Day High$13.98
Day Low$13.97
Volume0.7M
Mkt Cap$1.0B
52W Low $152W High $25
Market Cap
$1.0B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
0.0%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
30.0%
Profit Margin
0.0%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.05

Why This Score

VTYX scores 20.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.05) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (784%) increases mean-reversion probability. 5-point penalty applied.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (49.5%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -21.0 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, VTYX would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score20.6
Fundamental Score40.3
ML Score12.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
2.5
6 Month
2.8
Primary
1 Year
2.9

Quality Assessment

F
Quality Grade
Low quality โ€” significant fundamental weaknesses
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $1.0B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary risk
Speculative Classification
Speculative micro-cap โ€” no earnings, sub-$2B market cap, momentum-driven. Position sizing should reflect elevated risk.
Conservative score reduced by 3 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
1.6%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
61
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
58
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
86
Grade A
Base
26.5
SHAP
+1.6
Factors
-1.0
Conviction
-4.5
Divergence
-2.0
Final
20.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

37AVG
Value50
Quality7
Growth62
Stability55
Investment10

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)57.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)74.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)75.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-22.8% to -13.8%
Medium-term
-31.9% to -19.0%
Long-term
-40.1% to -23.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 12

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score57.7/100
Target Upside+0.3%
Coverage13 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score60.7/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+7.8%
6M Momentum+4.8%
Volatility+0.5%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+302.1%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.61)
Relative Strength vs Sector+759.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+6.721
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
3%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P41
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P22
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P25
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 40 relative to sector peers40/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 12th percentileP12
Blended score: 80% fundamental (40) + 20% ML (12) = 34.634.6
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.5%; Drawdown 14% โ†’ 0.0pt; Positive momentum 784% โ†’ -5.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade F: quality flags triggered โ€” see details below. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade F
SHAP feature alignment: +1.6pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: -4.5pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Divergence penalty: -2.0pt (ML 28pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: Pipeline concentration: $1.0B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag
Speculative: SPEC_MICRO (3.0pt penalty)Speculative

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare โ€” Rank #274 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
VTYX20.6N/A0.0%0.0%$1.0B
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
ASND78.316.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.3B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
Sector Average36.641.9161.5%-3292.7%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Ventyx Biosciences, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, develops small molecule product candidates for inflammatory diseases and autoimmune disorders. The company's lead product candidate is VTX958, a tyrosine kinase type 2 inhibitor that is in phase I clinical trials for the treatment of immune-mediated diseases, such as psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease, psoriatic arthritis, Crohn's disease, and lupus. It also develops VTX002, an oral sphingosine 1 phosphate receptor 1 modulator that is in phase II clinical trials for the treatment of ulcerative colitis; and VTX2735, a peripheral-targeted NOD-like receptor protein 3 (NLRP3) inflammasome inhibitor for the treatment of systemic inflammatory diseases, such as cardiovascular, hepatic, renal, and rheumatologic diseases which is in phase I clinical trials. In addition, the company develops CNS-penetrant NLRP3 inhibitors for the treatment of Alzheimer disease, Parkinson disease, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, and multiple sclerosis. Ventyx Biosciences, Inc. was incorporated in 2018 and is based in Encinitas, California.

CEO
Raju S. Mohan
Employees
81
Beta
1.26
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
57.9
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-44.1%
High: $25
From 52W Low
+1684.2%
Low: $0.78
Moving Averages
10-Day
$14.00
Below
20-Day
$14.00
Below
50-Day
$12.40
Above
200-Day
$6.10
Above
60-Day Support
$7.08
60-Day Resistance
$25
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 90/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+129%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+103.1%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.79x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$0$0$0$0
Gross Profit$0$0$0$0
Operating Income$-25M$-29M$-30M$-32M
Net Income$-23M$-27M$-27M$-29M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.32$-0.38$-0.39$-0.41
Gross MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A
Operating MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A
Net MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A

Why This Stock

Healthcare

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 86/100Score impact: -24.5pt

Volume
100
3.2M avg/day
Dollar Vol
97
$45M/day
Float
81
52M shares
Mkt Cap
40
$1.0B
Range
100
3093% spread
Composite Liquidity Score86/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2022$9.50$41.29125.2%Wide
2023$2.06$47.25183.3%Wide
2024$1.67$11.48149.2%Wide
2025$0.78$10.55172.4%Wide
3-Year Range
193.5%
Narrow Years
0 / 4
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
72.9%
Outstanding Shares
72M
Bid-Ask Spread
3093.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.