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48

ERAS

๐Ÿฅ Healthcare

Erasca, Inc.

Aggressive #615High RiskLow 27Fโ†‘ 36pt
$13.22-1.78%
Day High$13.60
Day Low$12.84
Volume0.5M
Mkt Cap$4.1B
52W Low $152W High $14
Market Cap
$3.9B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
0.0%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-29.3%
Profit Margin
0.0%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.14

Why This Score

ERAS scores 48.4 on the Aggressive profile, blending a fundamental score (55% weight, emphasizing growth and momentum (91% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (45% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong momentum (776%) โ€” the market is rewarding this name.
Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (776%) increases mean-reversion probability. 5-point penalty applied.
  • Procyclicality: Late-cycle macro signals reduce confidence in extreme-momentum names. 2-point additional penalty.

Net penalties of -12.2 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, ERAS would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score48.4
Fundamental Score48.8
ML Score68.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
3.0
6 Month
3.4
Primary
1 Year
3.6

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
8.2%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
57
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
67
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
95
Grade A
Base
50.4
SHAP
+0.9
Factors
-1.0
Conviction
-1.3
Divergence
-0.6
Final
48.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)42.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)75.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)56.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-20.5% to -12.1%
Medium-term
-28.5% to -16.4%
Long-term
-35.9% to -20.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 68

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score66.7/100
Target Upside-25.1%
Coverage9 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score56.7/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+7.8%
6M Momentum+6.6%
Volatility+0.5%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+111.6%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.86)
Relative Strength vs Sector+750.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+6.750
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
6%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P43
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P21
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P46
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 53 relative to sector peers53/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 17th percentileP17
ML model weight reduced to 26% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected26% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +0.9pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 74% fund (53.3) + 26% ML (16.0) + SHAP(+0.9) = 44.5โ€”
Factor quality: -1.0pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Momentum mean-reversion: -3.0pt (776% 12m momentum)โ€”
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -2 pointsGrade B
Conviction penalty: -1.3pt (conviction=27)โ€”
Divergence penalty: -1.8pt (fund 36pt higher)โ€”
Risk Factors
Risk assessment: high. Strong momentum 776% โ†’ +12.0ptHigh
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (23.0%) โ€” earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare โ€” Rank #85 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ERAS48.4N/A0.0%0.0%$3.9B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB85.613.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX82.113.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
ASND75.816.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
NBIX74.826.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
AMGN73.926.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.535.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.419.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ISRG72.261.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
EXEL71.615.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
ALKS71.516.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
HALO70.316.822.4%43.7%$8.2B
Sector Average37.041.9161.5%-3292.7%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Company Overviewvia FMP

Erasca, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on discovering, developing, and commercializing therapies for patients with RAS/MAPK pathway-driven cancers. The company's lead candidates include ERAS-007, an oral inhibitor of ERK1/2 for the treatment of non-small cell lung cancer, colorectal cancer, and acute myeloid leukemia; and ERAS-601, an oral SHP2 inhibitor for patients with advanced or metastatic solid tumors. It is also developing ERAS-801, a central nervous system-penetrant EGFR inhibitor for the treatment of patients with recurrent glioblastoma multiforme. The company was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

CEO
Jonathan E. Lim
Employees
103
Beta
1.22
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
64.0
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-6.8%
High: $14.17
From 52W Low
+1207.9%
Low: $1.01
Moving Averages
10-Day
$12.80
Above
20-Day
$12.00
Above
50-Day
$8.50
Above
200-Day
$3.50
Above
60-Day Support
$2.81
60-Day Resistance
$14.17
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 90/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+277.4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+110.67%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.5x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$0$0$0$0
Gross Profit$0$0$0$-832,000
Operating Income$-35M$-38M$-36M$-36M
Net Income$-31M$-34M$-31M$-32M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.11$-0.12$-0.11$-0.11
Gross MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A
Operating MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A
Net MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A

Why This Stock

Healthcare

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 95/100Score impact: -13.2pt

Volume
100
5.3M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$69M/day
Float
100
186M shares
Mkt Cap
65
$3.9B
Range
100
1215% spread
Composite Liquidity Score95/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$11.87$24.4769.3%Wide
2022$3.85$15.71121.2%Wide
2023$1.51$4.60101.1%Wide
2024$1.64$3.4571.1%Wide
2025$1.01$3.80116%Wide
3-Year Range
128%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
59.9%
Outstanding Shares
310M
Bid-Ask Spread
1215.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.