Back to Dashboard
23

OLMA

๐Ÿฅ Healthcare

Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Conservative #1227Aggressive #806High RiskFโ†‘ 51pt
$24.39+1.20%
Day High$24.45
Day Low$23.59
Volume0.8M
Mkt Cap$1.9B
52W Low $352W High $36
Market Cap
$1.9B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
0.0%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-34.0%
Profit Margin
0.0%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.01

Why This Score

OLMA scores 23.3 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.01) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (417%) increases mean-reversion probability. 5-point penalty applied.
  • Above-average volatility (63.4%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -20.2 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, OLMA would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score23.3
Fundamental Score38.3
ML Score34.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
2.3
6 Month
2.5
Primary
1 Year
2.6

Quality Assessment

F
Quality Grade
Low quality โ€” significant fundamental weaknesses
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $1.9B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary risk
Speculative Classification
Speculative micro-cap โ€” no earnings, sub-$2B market cap, momentum-driven. Position sizing should reflect elevated risk.
Conservative score reduced by 3 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
1.3%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
90
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
91
Grade A
Base
29.4
SHAP
-0.4
Factors
-0.9
Conviction
-4.8
Final
23.3
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

28AVG
Value50
Quality7
Growth20
Stability52
Investment10

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)42.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)72.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)91.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-22.1% to -13.2%
Medium-term
-30.8% to -18.1%
Long-term
-38.8% to -22.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 34

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+80.3%
Coverage7 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score90.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+4.2%
6M Momentum+3.1%
Volatility+0.6%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+103.2%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.75)
Relative Strength vs Sector+392.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+3.326
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
4%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P41
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P22
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P30
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 38 relative to sector peers38/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 34th percentileP34
Blended score: 80% fundamental (38) + 20% ML (34) = 37.437.4
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.6%; Drawdown 20% โ†’ 0.0pt; Positive momentum 417% โ†’ -5.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade F: quality flags triggered โ€” see details below. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade F
Conviction adj: -4.8pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors
Quality concern: Pipeline concentration: $1.9B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag
Speculative: SPEC_MICRO (3.0pt penalty)Speculative

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare โ€” Rank #258 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
OLMA23.3N/A0.0%0.0%$1.9B
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
ASND78.316.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.3B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
Sector Average36.641.9161.5%-3292.7%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of therapies for women's cancers. Its lead product candidate is OP-1250, an estrogen receptor (ER) antagonist and a selective ER degrader, which is in Phase 1/2 clinical trial for the treatment of recurrent, locally advanced, or metastatic estrogen receptor-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative breast cancer. The company was formerly known as CombiThera, Inc. and changed its name to Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc. in March 2009. Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

CEO
Sean Bohen
Employees
96
Beta
1.92
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
45.7
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-32.7%
High: $36.26
From 52W Low
+752.8%
Low: $2.86
Moving Averages
10-Day
$23.70
Above
20-Day
$24.50
Below
50-Day
$26.30
Below
200-Day
$13.20
Above
60-Day Support
$22.01
60-Day Resistance
$36.26
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 90/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+84.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+102.2%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.77x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$0$0$0$0
Gross Profit$0$0$0$0
Operating Income$-46M$-48M$-35M$-37M
Net Income$-42M$-44M$-30M$-34M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.49$-0.51$-0.36$-0.57
Gross MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A
Operating MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A
Net MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A

Why This Stock

Healthcare

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 91/100Score impact: -40.5pt

Volume
100
3.9M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$96M/day
Float
85
63M shares
Mkt Cap
58
$1.9B
Range
100
1168% spread
Composite Liquidity Score91/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$8.25$50.98144.3%Wide
2022$2.00$9.68131.5%Wide
2023$2.45$17.79151.6%Wide
2024$5.56$16.77100.4%Wide
2025$2.86$36.26170.8%Wide
3-Year Range
174.7%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
80.7%
Outstanding Shares
79M
Bid-Ask Spread
1168.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.