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VSTM

๐Ÿฅ Healthcare

Verastem, Inc.

Conservative #1323Aggressive #1403High RiskMixed 43
$5.72-1.89%
Day High$5.83
Day Low$5.53
Volume1.0M
Mkt Cap$346M
52W Low $452W High $11
Market Cap
$359M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
0.0%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-49.5%
Profit Margin
-1802.1%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

VSTM scores 16.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 2364.0% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E -5.76) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (27.0%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -18.4 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, VSTM would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score16.4
Fundamental Score37.2
ML Score2.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
8.9
6 Month
9.9
Primary
1 Year
10.4

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality โ€” weak profitability or high leverage
2 quality flags detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
Negative ROIC (-131.1%) with high ROE (2364.0%) โ€” capital structure distortion (possibly negative equity or one-time gain)
Pipeline concentration: $0.4B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary risk
Speculative Classification
Anomalous margin data โ€” extreme values suggest one-time events or accounting irregularities.
Conservative score reduced by 4 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
3%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
70
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
68
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
73
Grade Bsmall cap
Base
24.1
SHAP
-3.5
Factors
-0.5
Conviction
-0.7
Divergence
-3.0
Final
16.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

31AVG
Value50
Quality33
Growth20
Stability39
Investment12

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)58.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)28.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)85.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-30.7% to -18.7%
Medium-term
-41.4% to -25.4%
Long-term
-53.5% to -29.9%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 2

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score68.4/100
Target Upside+162.3%
Coverage19 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score70.1/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum+0.0%
6M Momentum-0.4%
Volatility+0.3%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+41.0%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.11)
Relative Strength vs Sector-20.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.1)
Momentum Quality+0.021
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P41
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P22
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P2
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 37 relative to sector peers37/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 2th percentileP2
Blended score: 80% fundamental (37) + 20% ML (2) = 30.230.2
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.3%; Drawdown 45% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
Conviction adj: -0.7pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Divergence penalty: -3.0pt (ML 35pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: Negative ROIC (-131.1%) with high ROE (2364.0%) โ€” capital structure distortion (possibly negative equity or one-time gain); Pipeline concentration: $0.4B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag
Speculative: ANOMALY_MARGIN (4.0pt penalty)Speculative
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare โ€” Rank #303 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
VSTM16.4N/A0.0%-1802.1%$359M
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
ASND78.316.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.3B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
Sector Average36.641.9161.5%-3292.7%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy19 analysts
Buy: 14Hold: 5
Price Target
$15consensus
Low $13Median $14High $18
+162.2% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Verastem, Inc., a development-stage biopharmaceutical company, focusing on developing and commercializing drugs for the treatment of cancer. Its product in development includes VS-6766, a dual rapidly accelerated fibrosarcoma (RAF)/mitogen-activated protein kinase (MEK) clamp that blocks MEK kinase activity and the ability of RAF to phosphorylate MEK. The company also engages in developing RAMP 201, an adaptive two-part multicenter, parallel cohort, randomized open label trial to evaluate the efficacy and safety of VS-6766 and in combination with defactinib, an oral small molecule inhibitor of focal adhesion kinase (FAK) in patients with recurrent low grade serous ovarian cancer; and RAMP 202, which is in Phase 2 trial to evaluate the safety of VS-6766 in combination with defactinib in patients with KRAS and BRAF mutant non-small cell lung cancer following treatment with a platinum-based regimen and immune checkpoint inhibitor. Verastem, Inc. has license agreements with Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. for the development, commercialization, and manufacture of products containing VS-6766; and Pfizer Inc. to research, develop, manufacture, and commercialize products containing Pfizer's inhibitors of FAK for therapeutic, diagnostic and prophylactic uses in humans. In addition, it has clinical collaboration agreement with Amgen, Inc. to evaluate the combination of VS-6766 with Amgen's KRAS-G12C inhibitor LUMAKRASTM which in Phase 1/2 trial entitled RAMP 203. The company was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Needham, Massachusetts.

CEO
Daniel W. Paterson
Employees
78
Beta
0.39
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
38.3
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-49.2%
High: $11.25
From 52W Low
+42.6%
Low: $4.01
Moving Averages
10-Day
$5.80
Below
20-Day
$6.10
Below
50-Day
$6.80
Below
200-Day
$7.50
Below
60-Day Support
$5.53
60-Day Resistance
$10.7
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 17/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-23.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+4.65%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.83x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
32
Confidence: 40%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$11M$2M$0$0
Gross Profit$10M$2M$0$0
Operating Income$-41M$-44M$-44M$-32M
Net Income$-99M$-26M$-52M$-65M
EPS (Diluted)$-1.35$-0.62$-0.96$-1.70
Gross Margin85.1%79.1%N/AN/A
Operating Margin-362.2%-2047.9%N/AN/A
Net Margin-876.3%-1213.6%N/AN/A

Why This Stock

Healthcare

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 73/100Score impact: -7.0pt

Volume
100
1.9M avg/day
Dollar Vol
62
$11M/day
Float
76
46M shares
Mkt Cap
15
$359M
Range
100
181% spread
Composite Liquidity Score73/100
FDCBA
small cap

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$24.24$59.1683.7%Wide
2022$3.48$25.56152.1%Wide
2023$4.20$15.12113%Wide
2024$2.10$14.22148.5%Wide
2025$4.01$11.2594.9%Wide
3-Year Range
151.2%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
weinstein declining

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
76.4%
Outstanding Shares
61M
Bid-Ask Spread
181.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.