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36

MBX

๐Ÿฅ Healthcare

MBX Biosciences, Inc. Common Stock

Conservative #956Aggressive #706Moderate RiskFโ†‘ 55pt
$34.24-3.93%
Day High$35.70
Day Low$34.01
Volume0.2M
Mkt Cap$1.2B
52W Low $552W High $45
Market Cap
$1.2B
P/E Ratio
4.5
Sector avg: 41.9
Rev Growth
0.0%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-90.2%
Profit Margin
0.0%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.00

Why This Score

MBX scores 36.0 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 4.5x earnings, below the market average.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.00) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (297%) increases mean-reversion probability. 5-point penalty applied.
  • Procyclicality: Late-cycle macro signals reduce confidence in extreme-momentum names. 2-point additional penalty.
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (21.0%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -19.6 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, MBX would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score36.0
Fundamental Score46.0
ML Score56.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
4.4
6 Month
4.9
Primary
1 Year
5.2

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $1.2B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
3.8%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
88
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
72
Grade Blow float
Base
39.1
SHAP
+2.2
Factors
-0.5
Conviction
-4.8
Final
36.0
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)40.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)88.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)91.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-19.2% to -11.3%
Medium-term
-26.6% to -15.2%
Long-term
-33.5% to -18.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 56

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+54.6%
Coverage4 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score88.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+3.0%
6M Momentum+1.5%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+144.3%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.51)
Relative Strength vs Sector+272.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+2.714
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
18%
Moderate โ€” watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P41
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P99
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P31
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 74 relative to sector peers74/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 19th percentileP19
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.2pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (74.4) + 9% ML (18.6) + SHAP(+2.2) = 71.5โ€”
Factor quality: -0.5pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 21.0%. Max drawdown 9% (-0.2 pts)Moderate
Momentum mean-reversion: -6.0pt (297% 12m momentum)โ€”
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.2B market cap)-8.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -4.8pt (conviction=0)โ€”
Divergence penalty: -6.5pt (fund 55pt higher)โ€”
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -7 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: Pipeline concentration: $1.2B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare โ€” Rank #151 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
MBX36.04.50.0%0.0%$1.2B
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
ASND78.216.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.3B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
Sector Average36.441.9161.5%-3292.7%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy4 analysts
Buy: 4
Price Target
$56consensus
Low $18Median $60High $88
+64.7% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

MBX Biosciences, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery and development of precision peptide therapies for the treatment of endocrine and metabolic disorders. Its lead product candidate is MBX 2109, a parathyroid hormone peptide prodrug, which is in Phase 2 clinical trial designed as a potential long-acting hormone replacement therapy for the treatment of chronic hypoparathyroidism. The company is also developing MBX 1416, a long-acting glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor antagonist that is in Phase 1 clinical trial designed as a potential therapy for post-bariatric hypoglycemia, a chronic complication of bariatric surgery. In addition, it is developing MBX 4291, a lead obesity product candidate, which is in investigational new drug-enabling studies designed as a long-acting and highly potent GLP-1 and glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide receptor co-agonist prodrug for treating obesity and co-morbidities. The company was founded in 2018 and is based in Carmel, Indiana.

CEO
Peter Kent Hawryluk
Employees
43
Beta
0.88
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
45.5
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-23.9%
High: $44.89
From 52W Low
+610.4%
Low: $4.81
Moving Averages
10-Day
$37.10
Below
20-Day
$37.20
Below
50-Day
$35.30
Below
200-Day
$21.00
Above
60-Day Support
$27.04
60-Day Resistance
$44.89
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 90/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+62.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+57.64%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.69x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$0$0$0$0
Gross Profit$-100,000$0$0$0
Operating Income$-24M$-22M$-27M$-19M
Net Income$-22M$-19M$-24M$-16M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.63$-0.58$-0.71$-0.47
Gross MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A
Operating MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A
Net MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A

Why This Stock

HealthcareP/E ratio of 4.5

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 72/100Score impact: -38.3pt

Volume
91
765K avg/day
Dollar Vol
85
$28M/day
Float
32
15M shares
Mkt Cap
45
$1.2B
Range
100
834% spread
Composite Liquidity Score72/100
FDCBA
low float
Free Float
43.5%
Outstanding Shares
34M
Bid-Ask Spread
834.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.