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CTMX

๐Ÿฅ Healthcare

CytomX Therapeutics, Inc.

Conservative #999Aggressive #644High RiskLow 8Fโ†‘ 38pt
$5.36-7.43%
Day High$5.74
Day Low$5.35
Volume1.1M
Mkt Cap$908M
52W Low $052W High $6
Market Cap
$920M
P/E Ratio
32.0
Sector avg: 41.9
Rev Growth
36.4%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
5700.9%
Profit Margin
24.7%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.05

Why This Score

CTMX scores 34.3 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 44.5% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High net margin of 24.7%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.05) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (686%) increases mean-reversion probability. 5-point penalty applied.
  • Procyclicality: Late-cycle macro signals reduce confidence in extreme-momentum names. 2-point additional penalty.
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (71.0%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -27.7 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, CTMX would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score34.3
Fundamental Score63.5
ML Score20.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
14.5
6 Month
16.2
Primary
1 Year
17.1

Quality Assessment

D
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (357.9%) โ€” earnings quality concern
Pipeline concentration: $0.9B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
1.1%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
87
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
68
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
72
Grade B
Base
45.8
SHAP
-2.9
Factors
-0.3
Conviction
-4.0
Divergence
-4.3
Final
34.3
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)81.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)71.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)89.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-18.8% to -12.2%
Medium-term
-26.0% to -16.5%
Long-term
-32.8% to -20.3%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 20

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score67.9/100
Target Upside+77.9%
Coverage21 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score87.1/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+6.9%
6M Momentum+1.6%
Volatility+0.7%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+525.0%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.23)
Relative Strength vs Sector+661.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+5.279
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P79
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P14
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P27
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 70 relative to sector peers70/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 31th percentileP31
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: -2.9pt (features diverge from model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (69.6) + 9% ML (31.2) + SHAP(-2.9) = 63.2โ€”
Factor quality: -0.3pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Momentum mean-reversion: -6.0pt (686% 12m momentum)โ€”
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.9B market cap)-15.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -4.0pt (conviction=8)โ€”
Divergence penalty: -4.3pt (fund 38pt higher)โ€”
Risk Factors
Risk assessment: very_high. Annualized volatility 71.0%. Max drawdown 23% (-6.0 pts)Very_high
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by -21 pointsGrade D
Quality concern: Earnings/revenue growth ratio of 156x โ€” earnings quality suspect; High accrual ratio (357.9%) โ€” earnings quality concern; Pipeline concentration: $0.9B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare โ€” Rank #164 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CTMX34.332.036.4%24.7%$920M
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
ASND78.216.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.3B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
Sector Average36.441.9161.5%-3292.7%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy21 analysts
Buy: 15Hold: 6
Price Target
$10consensus
Low $10Median $10High $10
+86.6% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

CytomX Therapeutics, Inc. operates as an oncology-focused biopharmaceutical company in the United States. The company develops antibody therapeutics based on its Probody technology platform for the treatment of cancer. The company's product candidates include CX-2009, an antibody drug conjugates (ADC) against CD166, which is in Phase II clinical trials for the treatment of breast cancer; CX-2029 that is in Phase II clinical trials for the treatment of squamous non-small cell lung cancer, head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, esophageal and gastro-esophageal junction cancers, and diffuse large B-cell lymphoma; BMS-986249, a CTLA-4 Probody therapeutic drug, which is in Phase I/II clinical trials for the treatment of metastatic melanoma; and BMS-986288, an anti-CTLA-4 Probody drug, which is in Phase I clinical trials for the treatment of solid tumors. It also develops CX-2043, a conditionally activated ADC targeting the epithelial cell adhesion molecule, as well as CX-904, a conditionally activated epidermal growth factor receptor for the treatment of solid tumor. The company has strategic collaborations with AbbVie Ireland Unlimited Company, Amgen, Inc., Bristol-Myers Squibb Company, ImmunoGen, Inc., Pfizer Inc., and Astellas Pharma Inc. to develop Probody therapeutics. CytomX Therapeutics, Inc. was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.

CEO
Sean A. McCarthy
Employees
119
Beta
2.43
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
53.8
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-14.9%
High: $6.35
From 52W Low
+1251.3%
Low: $0.4
Moving Averages
10-Day
$5.50
Below
20-Day
$5.60
Below
50-Day
$5.00
Above
200-Day
$3.30
Above
60-Day Support
$3.66
60-Day Resistance
$6.35
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 90/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+63.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+59.12%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.73x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$6M$19M$51M$38M
Gross Profit$6M$19M$51M$38M
Operating Income$-16M$-1M$23M$18M
Net Income$-14M$-154,000$24M$19M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.09$-0.00$0.27$0.24
Gross Margin100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
Operating Margin-264.4%-6.9%44.4%46.4%
Net Margin-238.6%-0.8%46.2%49.6%

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 36.4%Profit margin 24.7%

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 72/100Score impact: -29.2pt

Volume
100
3.0M avg/day
Dollar Vol
73
$17M/day
Float
40
0K shares
Mkt Cap
39
$920M
Range
100
1487% spread
Composite Liquidity Score72/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$3.68$10.0592.8%Wide
2022$1.17$4.73120.7%Wide
2023$1.04$3.0297.5%Wide
2024$0.83$5.85150.1%Wide
2025$0.40$4.62168.1%Wide
3-Year Range
174.4%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
1487.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.