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32

CSIQ

⚡ Energy

Canadian Solar Inc.

Conservative #1045Aggressive #868Moderate RiskMixed 48ML↑ 26pt
$20.27-5.15%
Day High$21.54
Day Low$20.02
Volume1.8M
Mkt Cap$1.4B
52W Low $752W High $35
Market Cap
$1.3B
P/E Ratio
84.1
Sector avg: 29.9
Rev Growth
-21.3%
Sector avg: 46.1%
Earnings Growth
-86.9%
Profit Margin
0.3%
Sector avg: 0.4%
Debt/Equity
2.58

Why This Score

CSIQ scores 32.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Elevated valuation at 84.1x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (22.6%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 2.58) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (-0.4 points) applied. CSIQ's rank of #1045 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score32.4
Fundamental Score27.8
ML Score41.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
49.2
6 Month
54.9
Primary
1 Year
57.8

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (639.2%) — earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
3.5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
75
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
56
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
80
Grade A
Base
32.7
SHAP
+1.7
Factors
+0.5
Conviction
-0.2
Divergence
-2.3
Final
32.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)5.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)79.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)83.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.9% to +0.7%
Medium-term
-8.7% to +1.2%
Long-term
-11.4% to +1.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 41

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score56.3/100
Target Upside+40.0%
Coverage32 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score75.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.9%
6M Momentum+1.0%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-5.3%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.95)
Relative Strength vs Sector+76.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (4.1)
Momentum Quality+0.655
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P20
Revenue growth vs Energy peers
Sector PE Rank
P0
Valuation vs Energy peers
Sector FCF Rank
P8
Free cash flow vs Energy peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 32 relative to sector peers32/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 58th percentileP58
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.7pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (32.1) + 9% ML (57.9) + SHAP(+1.7) = 36.2
Factor quality: +0.5pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 22.6%. Max drawdown 30% (-8.6 pts)Moderate
Momentum mean-reversion: -0.6pt (93% 12m momentum)
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.3B market cap)-8.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -2.3pt (ML 26pt higher)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (639.2%) — earnings quality concern; High leverage: D/E ratio of 2.6x — elevated balance sheet riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Energy — Rank #17 of 24 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CSIQ32.484.1-21.3%0.3%$1.3B
VNOM71.918.24.0%41.8%$14.4B
FANG67.911.932.2%30.3%$48.5B
TRMD63.89.72.6%21.4%$2.8B
WFRD61.217.1-10.8%8.8%$7.3B
CHRD60.834.534.8%16.2%$5.8B
BKR57.423.5-0.3%9.3%$60.5B
CLMT50.6N/A-100.0%0.0%$2.4B
SHLS49.954.1-18.4%7.7%$1.8B
APA47.36.717.6%8.3%$10.0B
ENPH45.035.410.7%11.7%$6.1B
EXE44.733.5-45.7%-16.9%$24.8B
GLNG41.779.9-12.8%18.0%$4.7B
PTEN41.5N/A-10.3%-1.9%$3.2B
APC40.415.712.4%4.6%$11.5B
PNRG35.412.390.0%12.9%$310M
Sector Average41.129.946.1%0.4%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy32 analysts
Buy: 15Hold: 10Sell: 7
Price Target
$29consensus
Low $20Median $30High $37
+42.5% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Canadian Solar Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, and sells solar ingots, wafers, cells, modules, and other solar power and battery storage products in Asia, the Americas, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Canadian Solar Inc. (CSI) Solar and Global Energy. The CSI Solar segment offers standard solar modules and battery storage solutions, as well as solar system kits that are a ready-to-install packages comprising inverters, racking systems, and other accessories; and engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) services. The Global Energy segment engages in the development, construction, maintenance, and sale of solar and battery storage projects; operation of solar power plants; and sale of electricity. This segment also provides operation and maintenance (O&M) services, including monitoring, inspections, repair, and replacement of plant equipment; and site management and administrative support services for solar projects, as well as asset management services. As of January 31, 2021, this segment had a fleet of solar power plants in operation with an aggregate capacity of approximately 445 MWp. The company serves distributors, system integrators, project developers, and installers/EPC companies. It sells its products primarily under its Canadian Solar brand name; and on an OEM basis. The company was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Guelph, Canada.

CEO
Xiaohua Qu
Employees
17,113
Beta
1.30
Industry
Solar
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
48.1
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-41.4%
High: $34.59
From 52W Low
+208.5%
Low: $6.57
Moving Averages
10-Day
$20.10
Above
20-Day
$20.20
Above
50-Day
$21.70
Below
200-Day
$16.50
Above
60-Day Support
$18.55
60-Day Resistance
$30.05
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 85/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+22.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+30.43%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.5x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$1.5B$1.7B$1.2B$1.5B
Gross Profit$256M$505M$140M$217M
Operating Income$18M$127M$-55M$-127M
Net Income$9M$7M$-34M$34M
EPS (Diluted)$0.13$0.11$-0.69$0.48
Gross Margin17.2%29.8%11.7%14.3%
Operating Margin1.2%7.5%-4.6%-8.4%
Net Margin0.6%0.4%-2.8%2.2%

Why This Stock

Energy

Tradability FilterGrade A — 80/100Score impact: -21.4pt

Volume
100
3.5M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$72M/day
Float
40
0K shares
Mkt Cap
48
$1.3B
Range
100
426% spread
Composite Liquidity Score80/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$28.80$51.0055.6%Wide
2022$22.15$47.6973.1%Wide
2023$17.82$45.2987.1%Wide
2024$10.60$26.5986%Wide
2025$6.57$34.59136.2%Wide
3-Year Range
149.3%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.3x dampening
severe revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
426.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.