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45

ENPH

⚡ Energy

Enphase Energy, Inc.

Conservative #709Aggressive #308Moderate RiskMixed 48ML↑ 26pt
$48.49-2.51%
Day High$50.83
Day Low$48.46
Volume5.9M
Mkt Cap$6.3B
52W Low $2652W High $67
Market Cap
$6.1B
P/E Ratio
35.4
Sector avg: 29.9
Rev Growth
10.7%
Sector avg: 44.1%
Earnings Growth
67.7%
Profit Margin
11.7%
Sector avg: 0.1%
Debt/Equity
1.11

Why This Score

ENPH scores 45.0 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 18.2% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
Risk Factors
  • Above-average volatility (14.3%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.11) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (-1.3 points) applied. ENPH's rank of #709 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score45.0
Fundamental Score38.9
ML Score60.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
70.5
6 Month
78.8
Primary
1 Year
82.9

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
29
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
57
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
96
Grade A
Base
43.1
SHAP
+1.8
Factors
+1.2
Conviction
-0.2
Divergence
-0.9
Final
45.0
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)58.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)43.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)47.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+1.5% to +6.1%
Medium-term
+2.9% to +9.9%
Long-term
+4.3% to +13.6%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 60

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score57.4/100
Target Upside-10.3%
Coverage54 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score28.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum-0.2%
6M Momentum+0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-39.5%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.64)
Relative Strength vs Sector-40.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (1.7)
Momentum Quality-0.112
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P76
Revenue growth vs Energy peers
Sector PE Rank
P12
Valuation vs Energy peers
Sector FCF Rank
P44
Free cash flow vs Energy peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 58 relative to sector peers58/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 84th percentileP84
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.8pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (57.5) + 9% ML (83.6) + SHAP(+1.8) = 61.7
Factor quality: +1.2pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 14.3%. Max drawdown 54% (-12.0 pts). Price momentum -24% (-3.8 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($6.1B market cap)+0.5 pts
Divergence penalty: -2.4pt (ML 26pt higher)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (20.7%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Energy — Rank #10 of 25 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ENPH45.035.410.7%11.7%$6.1B
VNOM71.918.24.0%41.8%$14.4B
FANG67.911.932.2%30.3%$48.5B
TRMD63.89.72.6%21.4%$2.8B
WFRD61.217.1-10.8%8.8%$7.3B
CHRD60.834.534.8%16.2%$5.8B
BKR57.423.5-0.3%9.3%$60.5B
CLMT50.6N/A-100.0%0.0%$2.4B
SHLS49.954.1-18.4%7.7%$1.8B
APA47.36.717.6%8.3%$10.0B
EXE44.733.5-45.7%-16.9%$24.8B
GLNG41.779.9-12.8%18.0%$4.7B
PTEN41.5N/A-10.3%-1.9%$3.2B
APC40.415.712.4%4.6%$11.5B
PNRG35.412.390.0%12.9%$310M
HPK32.712.4-3.8%6.0%$666M
Sector Average39.629.944.1%0.1%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold54 analysts
Buy: 22Hold: 26Sell: 6
Price Target
$43consensus
Low $22Median $43High $68
-10.7% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Enphase Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, and sells home energy solutions for the solar photovoltaic industry in the United States and internationally. The company offers semiconductor-based microinverter, which converts energy at the individual solar module level, and combines with its proprietary networking and software technologies to provide energy monitoring and control services. It also offers AC battery storage systems; Envoy communications gateway; and Enlighten cloud-based monitoring service, as well as other accessories. The company sells its solutions to solar distributors; and directly to large installers, original equipment manufacturers, strategic partners, and homeowners, as well as through its legacy product upgrade program or online store. Enphase Energy, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Fremont, California.

CEO
Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman
Employees
2,781
Beta
1.37
Industry
Solar
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
43.7
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-27.8%
High: $67.2
From 52W Low
+88.1%
Low: $25.78
Moving Averages
10-Day
$46.40
Above
20-Day
$45.10
Above
50-Day
$38.80
Above
200-Day
$37.30
Above
60-Day Support
$28.09
60-Day Resistance
$52.93
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 75/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+30%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-13.35%
Falling
Volume Ratio
0.82x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
15
Confidence: 40%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$343M$410M$363M$356M
Gross Profit$152M$196M$170M$168M
Operating Income$22M$66M$37M$32M
Net Income$39M$67M$37M$30M
EPS (Diluted)$0.29$0.50$0.28$0.22
Gross Margin44.3%47.8%46.9%47.2%
Operating Margin6.3%16.1%10.2%9.0%
Net Margin11.3%16.2%10.2%8.3%

Why This Stock

EnergyRevenue growth 10.7%Profit margin 11.7%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 96/100Score impact: -7.2pt

Volume
100
7.2M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$340M/day
Float
100
127M shares
Mkt Cap
71
$6.1B
Range
100
161% spread
Composite Liquidity Score96/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$108.88$282.4688.7%Wide
2022$113.40$339.9299.9%Wide
2023$73.49$271.72114.8%Wide
2024$58.33$141.6383.3%Wide
2025$25.78$76.9099.6%Wide
3-Year Range
165.3%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
97.0%
Outstanding Shares
131M
Bid-Ask Spread
161.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.