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25

METC

⚡ Energy

Ramaco Resources, Inc.

Conservative #1231Aggressive #1141High RiskHigh 81
$17.66-2.43%
Day High$18.87
Day Low$17.56
Volume2.9M
Mkt Cap$974M
52W Low $652W High $58
Market Cap
$913M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
-3.9%
Sector avg: 46.1%
Earnings Growth
-86.4%
Profit Margin
-5.7%
Sector avg: 0.4%
Debt/Equity
0.26

Why This Score

METC scores 24.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High conviction (81/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Above-average volatility (27.7%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-3.0 points) applied. METC's rank of #1231 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score24.6
Fundamental Score23.8
ML Score26.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
28.4
6 Month
31.8
Primary
1 Year
33.4

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (206.7%) — earnings quality concern
Speculative Classification
Speculative micro-cap — no earnings, sub-$2B market cap, momentum-driven. Position sizing should reflect elevated risk.
Conservative score reduced by 3 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
2.9%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
88
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
71
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
85
Grade A
Base
21.3
SHAP
+1.9
Factors
+0.1
Conviction
+1.3
Final
24.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)39.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)36.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)90.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-16.8% to -7.7%
Medium-term
-22.0% to -9.1%
Long-term
-27.2% to -10.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 26

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score70.8/100
Target Upside+76.7%
Coverage6 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score88.3/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum+0.8%
6M Momentum-0.4%
Volatility+0.3%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+120.8%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.43)
Relative Strength vs Sector+68.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.0)
Momentum Quality+0.399
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
7%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P52
Revenue growth vs Energy peers
Sector PE Rank
P60
Valuation vs Energy peers
Sector FCF Rank
P24
Free cash flow vs Energy peers
Growth Deviation
0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 50 relative to sector peers50/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 41th percentileP41
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.9pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (50.2) + 9% ML (39.6) + SHAP(+1.9) = 51.2
Factor quality: +0.1pt (multi-factor composite)
Momentum mean-reversion: -0.2pt (84% 12m momentum)
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.9B market cap)-15.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +1.3pt (conviction=81)
Risk Factors
Risk assessment: high. Annualized volatility 27.7%. Max drawdown 53% (-12.0 pts)High
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (206.7%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Energy — Rank #21 of 24 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
METC24.6N/A-3.9%-5.7%$913M
VNOM71.918.24.0%41.8%$14.4B
FANG67.911.932.2%30.3%$48.5B
TRMD63.89.72.6%21.4%$2.8B
WFRD61.217.1-10.8%8.8%$7.3B
CHRD60.834.534.8%16.2%$5.8B
BKR57.423.5-0.3%9.3%$60.5B
CLMT50.6N/A-100.0%0.0%$2.4B
SHLS49.954.1-18.4%7.7%$1.8B
APA47.36.717.6%8.3%$10.0B
ENPH45.035.410.7%11.7%$6.1B
EXE44.733.5-45.7%-16.9%$24.8B
GLNG41.779.9-12.8%18.0%$4.7B
PTEN41.5N/A-10.3%-1.9%$3.2B
APC40.415.712.4%4.6%$11.5B
PNRG35.412.390.0%12.9%$310M
Sector Average41.129.946.1%0.4%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy6 analysts
Buy: 5Hold: 1
Price Target
$30consensus
Low $16Median $30High $44
+70.4% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Ramaco Resources, Inc. produces and sells metallurgical coal. The company's development portfolio includes the Elk Creek project consisting of approximately 20,200 acres of controlled mineral and 16 seams located in southern West Virginia; the Berwind property comprising approximately 41,300 acres of controlled mineral and an area of Squire Jim seam coal deposits, which is situated on the border of West Virginia and Virginia; the Knox Creek property consisting of approximately 62,100 acres of controlled mineral that is located in Virginia; and the RAM Mine property comprising approximately 1,570 acres of controlled mineral, which is situated in southwestern Pennsylvania. The company serves blast furnace steel mills and coke plants in the United States, as well as international metallurgical coal consumers. The company was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Lexington, Kentucky.

CEO
Randall W. Atkins
Employees
984
Beta
1.27
Industry
Coal
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
39.2
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-69.4%
High: $57.8
From 52W Low
+180.3%
Low: $6.3
Moving Averages
10-Day
$16.90
Above
20-Day
$18.00
Below
50-Day
$18.80
Below
200-Day
$21.30
Below
60-Day Support
$13.87
60-Day Resistance
$28.67
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 26/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-17.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+15.02%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.57x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
15
Confidence: 40%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$128M$121M$153M$135M
Gross Profit$0$2M$1M$3M
Operating Income$-16M$-14M$-14M$-12M
Net Income$-15M$-13M$-14M$-9M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.30$-0.25$-0.29$-0.19
Gross Margin0.0%1.4%0.9%1.9%
Operating Margin-12.2%-12.0%-9.1%-8.9%
Net Margin-11.5%-11.0%-9.1%-7.0%

Why This Stock

EnergyValuation below sector median

Tradability FilterGrade A — 85/100Score impact: -16.5pt

Volume
100
3.2M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$54M/day
Float
71
41M shares
Mkt Cap
39
$913M
Range
100
817% spread
Composite Liquidity Score85/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.11x dampening
weinstein decliningslight revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
74.5%
Outstanding Shares
55M
Bid-Ask Spread
817.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.