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47

APA

⚡ Energy

APA Corporation

Conservative #641Aggressive #260Moderate RiskHigh 100
$27.84-2.73%
Day High$28.70
Day Low$27.71
Volume6.2M
Mkt Cap$9.9B
52W Low $1452W High $30
Market Cap
$10.0B
P/E Ratio
6.7
Sector avg: 29.9
Rev Growth
17.6%
Sector avg: 44.1%
Earnings Growth
-71.8%
Profit Margin
8.3%
Sector avg: 0.1%
Debt/Equity
1.17

Why This Score

APA scores 47.3 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 15.2% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Attractively valued at 6.7x earnings, below the market average.
  • High conviction (100/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Commodity beta: Oil & Gas E&P stocks carry a 5-point penalty for commodity price sensitivity.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (11.3%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.17) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-8.1 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score47.3
Fundamental Score44.2
ML Score80.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
66.6
6 Month
74.4
Primary
1 Year
78.3

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality
Quality Flags
Commodity beta: Oil & Gas E&P earnings driven by commodity prices — cyclical risk not captured by trailing fundamentals

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
56
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
57
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
97
Grade A
Base
46.4
SHAP
+1.6
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+1.8
Divergence
-3.1
Final
47.3
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

60AVG
Value95
Quality70
Growth35
Stability60
Investment40

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)47.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)78.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)53.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+2.2% to +6.9%
Medium-term
+4.2% to +11.4%
Long-term
+6.3% to +15.9%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 80

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score56.9/100
Target Upside-3.4%
Coverage51 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score55.9/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.4%
6M Momentum+0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+19.1%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.54)
Relative Strength vs Sector+25.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.7)
Momentum Quality+0.309
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
9%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P84
Revenue growth vs Energy peers
Sector PE Rank
P56
Valuation vs Energy peers
Sector FCF Rank
P100
Free cash flow vs Energy peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 74 relative to sector peers74/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 78th percentileP78
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.1pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (74.5) + 9% ML (78.1) + SHAP(+3.1) = 77.9
Factor quality: +1.3pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 11.3%. Max drawdown 26% (-7.2 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($10.0B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.6pt (conviction=100)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -7 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: Commodity beta: Oil & Gas E&P earnings driven by commodity prices — cyclical risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Energy — Rank #9 of 25 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
APA47.36.717.6%8.3%$10.0B
VNOM71.918.24.0%41.8%$14.4B
FANG67.911.932.2%30.3%$48.5B
TRMD63.89.72.6%21.4%$2.8B
WFRD61.217.1-10.8%8.8%$7.3B
CHRD60.834.534.8%16.2%$5.8B
BKR57.423.5-0.3%9.3%$60.5B
CLMT50.6N/A-100.0%0.0%$2.4B
SHLS49.954.1-18.4%7.7%$1.8B
ENPH45.035.410.7%11.7%$6.1B
EXE44.733.5-45.7%-16.9%$24.8B
GLNG41.779.9-12.8%18.0%$4.7B
PTEN41.5N/A-10.3%-1.9%$3.2B
APC40.415.712.4%4.6%$11.5B
PNRG35.412.390.0%12.9%$310M
HPK32.712.4-3.8%6.0%$666M
Sector Average39.629.944.1%0.1%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold51 analysts
Buy: 20Hold: 25Sell: 6
Price Target
$28consensus
Low $21Median $26High $40
-0.3% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

APA Corporation, through its subsidiaries, explores for, develops, and produces oil and gas properties. It has operations in the United States, Egypt, and the United Kingdom, as well as has exploration activities offshore Suriname. The company also operates gathering, processing, and transmission assets in West Texas, as well as holds ownership in four Permian-to-Gulf Coast pipelines. APA Corporation was founded in 1954 and is based in Houston, Texas.

CEO
John J. Christmann
Employees
2,305
Beta
0.70
Industry
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
52.7
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-7.4%
High: $30.08
From 52W Low
+105%
Low: $13.58
Moving Averages
10-Day
$28.20
Below
20-Day
$27.50
Above
50-Day
$26.00
Above
200-Day
$22.60
Above
60-Day Support
$23.25
60-Day Resistance
$30.08
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 86/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+23.2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+10.7%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.1x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$2.0B$2.1B$2.2B$2.6B
Gross Profit$0$818M$791M$1.0B
Operating Income$0$672M$671M$773M
Net Income$279M$205M$603M$347M
EPS (Diluted)$0.79$0.57$1.67$0.95
Gross Margin0.0%38.7%36.3%38.2%
Operating Margin0.0%31.8%30.8%29.3%
Net Margin14.0%9.7%27.7%13.2%

Why This Stock

EnergyP/E ratio of 6.7Revenue growth 17.6%Valuation below sector median (P/E 6.7)

Tradability FilterGrade A — 97/100Score impact: -31.0pt

Volume
100
5.9M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$171M/day
Float
100
352M shares
Mkt Cap
80
$10.0B
Range
100
122% spread
Composite Liquidity Score97/100
FDCBA
Free Float
99.4%
Outstanding Shares
355M
Bid-Ask Spread
122.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.