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68

FANG

⚡ Energy

Diamondback Energy, Inc.

Conservative #134Aggressive #71Low RiskHigh 100
$167.77-2.75%
Day High$174.50
Day Low$165.63
Volume2.5M
Mkt Cap$48.1B
52W Low $11452W High $177
Market Cap
$48.5B
P/E Ratio
11.9
Sector avg: 29.9
Rev Growth
32.2%
Sector avg: 44.1%
Earnings Growth
6.2%
Profit Margin
30.3%
Sector avg: 0.1%
Debt/Equity
0.35

Why This Score

FANG scores 67.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 30.3%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 11.9x earnings, below the market average.
  • ML model assigns a high-conviction signal (98/100), indicating strong pattern recognition across 82 features.
  • High conviction (100/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Commodity beta: Oil & Gas E&P stocks carry a 5-point penalty for commodity price sensitivity.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Moderate penalties (-7.7 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score67.9
Fundamental Score65.0
ML Score98.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
78.4
6 Month
87.7
Primary
1 Year
92.3

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality
Quality Flags
Commodity beta: Oil & Gas E&P earnings driven by commodity prices — cyclical risk not captured by trailing fundamentals

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
53
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
73
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
99
Grade A
Base
66.6
SHAP
+1.7
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+1.6
Divergence
-2.7
Final
67.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

72AVG
Value85
Quality95
Growth75
Stability75
Investment30

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)75.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)76.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)82.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+6.8% to +12.2%
Medium-term
+11.1% to +19.4%
Long-term
+17.0% to +28.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 98

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score73.0/100
Target Upside+4.2%
Coverage51 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score53.1/100
News Volume0 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum+0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-5.9%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.62)
Relative Strength vs Sector-6.9%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.5)
Momentum Quality+0.078
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
5%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P88
Revenue growth vs Energy peers
Sector PE Rank
P48
Valuation vs Energy peers
Sector FCF Rank
P92
Free cash flow vs Energy peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 82 relative to sector peers82/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 86th percentileP86
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.7pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (82.2) + 9% ML (86.0) + SHAP(+3.7) = 86.3
Factor quality: +1.5pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 6.4%. Stability bonus of +9.1 points. Max drawdown 17% (-3.5 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($48.5B market cap)+2.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.6pt (conviction=100)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -14 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: Commodity beta: Oil & Gas E&P earnings driven by commodity prices — cyclical risk not captured by trailing fundamentals; FANG has ~68% correlation with Crude Oil. Revenue and earnings are primarily driven by Crude Oil price, not operational improvement. Score reflects Crude Oil momentum, not company-specific alpha.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Energy — Rank #2 of 25 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
FANG67.911.932.2%30.3%$48.5B
VNOM71.918.24.0%41.8%$14.4B
TRMD63.89.72.6%21.4%$2.8B
WFRD61.217.1-10.8%8.8%$7.3B
CHRD60.834.534.8%16.2%$5.8B
BKR57.423.5-0.3%9.3%$60.5B
CLMT50.6N/A-100.0%0.0%$2.4B
SHLS49.954.1-18.4%7.7%$1.8B
APA47.36.717.6%8.3%$10.0B
ENPH45.035.410.7%11.7%$6.1B
EXE44.733.5-45.7%-16.9%$24.8B
GLNG41.779.9-12.8%18.0%$4.7B
PTEN41.5N/A-10.3%-1.9%$3.2B
APC40.415.712.4%4.6%$11.5B
PNRG35.412.390.0%12.9%$310M
HPK32.712.4-3.8%6.0%$666M
Sector Average39.629.944.1%0.1%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy51 analysts
Strong Buy: 1Buy: 45Hold: 5
Price Target
$184consensus
Low $171Median $178High $218
+9.7% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Diamondback Energy, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, focuses on the acquisition, development, exploration, and exploitation of unconventional and onshore oil and natural gas reserves in the Permian Basin in West Texas. It focuses on the development of the Spraberry and Wolfcamp formations of the Midland basin; and the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring formations of the Delaware basin, which are part of the Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico. As of December 31, 2021, the company's total acreage position was approximately 524,700 gross acres in the Permian Basin; and estimated proved oil and natural gas reserves were 1,788,991 thousand barrels of crude oil equivalent. It also held working interests in 5,289 gross producing wells, as well as royalty interests in 6,455 additional wells. In addition, the company owns mineral interests approximately 930,871 gross acres and 27,027 net royalty acres in the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale; and owns, operates, develops, and acquires midstream infrastructure assets, including 866 miles of crude oil gathering pipelines, natural gas gathering pipelines, and an integrated water system in the Midland and Delaware Basins of the Permian Basin. Diamondback Energy, Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Midland, Texas.

CEO
Matthew Kaes Van't Hof
Employees
1,983
Beta
0.58
Industry
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
48.1
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-5.3%
High: $177.25
From 52W Low
+47.2%
Low: $114
Moving Averages
10-Day
$171.30
Below
20-Day
$167.70
Above
50-Day
$157.10
Above
200-Day
$147.10
Above
60-Day Support
$139.41
60-Day Resistance
$177.25
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 68/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+14.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+2.57%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.24x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
33
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$3.4B$3.9B$3.7B$4.0B
Gross Profit$820M$1.4B$1.3B$1.8B
Operating Income$870M$1.2B$1.1B$1.7B
Net Income$-1.5B$1.0B$699M$1.4B
EPS (Diluted)$-5.11$3.50$2.38$4.83
Gross Margin24.3%34.6%34.6%45.0%
Operating Margin25.8%31.5%31.2%41.5%
Net Margin-43.2%25.9%19.1%34.9%

Why This Stock

EnergyP/E ratio of 11.9Revenue growth 32.2%Profit margin 30.3%Earnings quality grade A

Tradability FilterGrade A — 99/100Score impact: -20.0pt

Volume
100
2.1M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$367M/day
Float
100
183M shares
Mkt Cap
100
$48.5B
Range
88
55% spread
Composite Liquidity Score99/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$65.27$117.7157.3%Wide
2022$103.71$168.9547.9%Wide
2023$119.01$171.4036.1%Wide
2024$147.93$214.5036.7%Wide
2025$114.00$180.9145.4%Wide
3-Year Range
61.2%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
63.7%
Outstanding Shares
287M
Bid-Ask Spread
55.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.