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50

SHLS

⚡ Energy

Shoals Technologies Group, Inc.

Conservative #571Aggressive #680Moderate RiskHigh 93
$6.85+0.22%
Day High$7.43
Day Low$6.77
Volume13.5M
Mkt Cap$1.1B
52W Low $352W High $11
Market Cap
$1.8B
P/E Ratio
54.1
Sector avg: 29.9
Rev Growth
-18.4%
Sector avg: 44.1%
Earnings Growth
-39.6%
Profit Margin
7.7%
Sector avg: 0.1%
Debt/Equity
0.28

Why This Score

SHLS scores 49.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High conviction (93/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (238%) increases mean-reversion probability. 5-point penalty applied.
  • Procyclicality: Late-cycle macro signals reduce confidence in extreme-momentum names. 2-point additional penalty.
  • Elevated valuation at 54.1x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (16.3%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-7.5 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score49.9
Fundamental Score49.7
ML Score68.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
48.7
6 Month
54.4
Primary
1 Year
57.3

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.9%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
67
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
66
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
91
Grade A
Base
46.4
SHAP
+1.6
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+1.8
Divergence
-0.5
Final
49.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)26.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)85.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)83.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-4.4% to +1.9%
Medium-term
-6.0% to +3.3%
Long-term
-7.6% to +4.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 68

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score65.9/100
Target Upside+7.9%
Coverage22 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score66.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum+2.4%
6M Momentum+0.6%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+180.7%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.24)
Relative Strength vs Sector+221.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+1.900
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
2%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P24
Revenue growth vs Energy peers
Sector PE Rank
P8
Valuation vs Energy peers
Sector FCF Rank
P40
Free cash flow vs Energy peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 60 relative to sector peers60/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 57th percentileP57
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (60.5) + 9% ML (57.2) + SHAP(+2.4) = 62.6
Factor quality: +1.0pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 16.3%. Max drawdown 20% (-4.9 pts)Moderate
Momentum mean-reversion: -6.0pt (238% 12m momentum)
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.8B market cap)-8.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +2.8pt (conviction=93)
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Energy — Rank #8 of 25 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
SHLS49.954.1-18.4%7.7%$1.8B
VNOM71.918.24.0%41.8%$14.4B
FANG67.911.932.2%30.3%$48.5B
TRMD63.89.72.6%21.4%$2.8B
WFRD61.217.1-10.8%8.8%$7.3B
CHRD60.834.534.8%16.2%$5.8B
BKR57.423.5-0.3%9.3%$60.5B
CLMT50.6N/A-100.0%0.0%$2.4B
APA47.36.717.6%8.3%$10.0B
ENPH45.035.410.7%11.7%$6.1B
EXE44.733.5-45.7%-16.9%$24.8B
GLNG41.779.9-12.8%18.0%$4.7B
PTEN41.5N/A-10.3%-1.9%$3.2B
APC40.415.712.4%4.6%$11.5B
PNRG35.412.390.0%12.9%$310M
HPK32.712.4-3.8%6.0%$666M
Sector Average39.629.944.1%0.1%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy23 analysts
Buy: 17Hold: 4Sell: 2
Price Target
$11consensus
Low $10Median $10High $12
+56.2% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. provides electrical balance of system (EBOS) solutions for solar energy projects in the United States. It produces EBOS components, including cable assemblies, inline fuses, combiners, disconnects, recombiners, wireless monitoring systems, junction boxes, transition enclosures, splice boxes, wire management solutions, and IV curve benchmarking devices. The company also sells EV Charging solutions for public and fleet electric vehicle charging stations; and EBOS systems. It sells its products principally to engineering, procurement, and construction firms that build solar energy projects and install electric vehicle charging stations. Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Portland, Tennessee.

CEO
Brandon Moss
Employees
1,290
Beta
1.70
Industry
Solar
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
28.7
Oversold
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-39.7%
High: $11.36
From 52W Low
+152.8%
Low: $2.71
Moving Averages
10-Day
$9.60
Below
20-Day
$9.80
Below
50-Day
$9.30
Below
200-Day
$7.50
Below
60-Day Support
$6.74
60-Day Resistance
$11.16
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 21/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Transition signal: 3→4
Price vs 200 SMA
-8.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+29.1%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.56x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
2
Confidence: 50%
Recent Gap Down

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$148M$136M$111M$80M
Gross Profit$47M$50M$41M$28M
Operating Income$17M$19M$16M$4M
Net Income$8M$12M$14M$-282,000
EPS (Diluted)$0.05$0.07$0.08$-0.00
Gross Margin31.6%37.0%37.2%35.0%
Operating Margin11.7%13.7%14.4%5.4%
Net Margin5.5%8.7%12.5%-0.4%

Why This Stock

Energy

Tradability FilterGrade A — 91/100Score impact: -23.0pt

Volume
100
3.8M avg/day
Dollar Vol
92
$38M/day
Float
100
164M shares
Mkt Cap
53
$1.8B
Range
100
319% spread
Composite Liquidity Score91/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$20.94$40.1062.8%Wide
2022$9.58$32.43108.8%Wide
2023$12.11$30.1085.2%Wide
2024$4.07$17.50124.5%Wide
2025$2.71$11.36123%Wide
3-Year Range
167%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.3x dampening
severe revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
98.0%
Outstanding Shares
167M
Bid-Ask Spread
319.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.