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CHRD

⚡ Energy

Chord Energy Corporation

Conservative #281Aggressive #204Low RiskHigh 89
$103.70-1.16%
Day High$105.99
Day Low$102.00
Volume0.9M
Mkt Cap$5.9B
52W Low $8052W High $116
Market Cap
$5.8B
P/E Ratio
34.5
Sector avg: 29.9
Rev Growth
34.8%
Sector avg: 44.1%
Earnings Growth
-17.1%
Profit Margin
16.2%
Sector avg: 0.1%
Debt/Equity
0.12

Why This Score

CHRD scores 60.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • ML model assigns a high-conviction signal (96/100), indicating strong pattern recognition across 82 features.
  • High conviction (89/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Commodity beta: Oil & Gas E&P stocks carry a 5-point penalty for commodity price sensitivity.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Moderate penalties (-8.5 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score60.8
Fundamental Score57.6
ML Score96.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
65.5
6 Month
73.2
Primary
1 Year
77.1

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality
Quality Flags
Commodity beta: Oil & Gas E&P earnings driven by commodity prices — cyclical risk not captured by trailing fundamentals

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
20
Topping
Sentiment (2.5%)
49
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
65
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
87
Grade A
Base
60.3
SHAP
+1.9
Factors
+0.8
Conviction
+1.4
Divergence
-3.5
Final
60.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

64AVG
Value55
Quality85
Growth60
Stability90
Investment30

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)56.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)57.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)79.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+0.2% to +4.5%
Medium-term
+0.9% to +7.6%
Long-term
+1.7% to +10.6%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 96

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score64.7/100
Target Upside+18.4%
Coverage17 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score49.3/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage3 — Topping
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum-0.0%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-1.2%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.79)
Relative Strength vs Sector-22.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.7)
Momentum Quality-0.047
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P92
Revenue growth vs Energy peers
Sector PE Rank
P16
Valuation vs Energy peers
Sector FCF Rank
P96
Free cash flow vs Energy peers
Growth Deviation
+0.2σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 87 relative to sector peers87/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 76th percentileP76
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.1pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (86.7) + 9% ML (76.4) + SHAP(+3.1) = 88.9
Factor quality: +1.3pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 8.5%. Max drawdown 19% (-4.5 pts). Price momentum -6% (-0.2 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($5.8B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction bonus: +2.3pt (conviction=89)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -7 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: Commodity beta: Oil & Gas E&P earnings driven by commodity prices — cyclical risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Energy — Rank #5 of 25 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CHRD60.834.534.8%16.2%$5.8B
VNOM71.918.24.0%41.8%$14.4B
FANG67.911.932.2%30.3%$48.5B
TRMD63.89.72.6%21.4%$2.8B
WFRD61.217.1-10.8%8.8%$7.3B
BKR57.423.5-0.3%9.3%$60.5B
CLMT50.6N/A-100.0%0.0%$2.4B
SHLS49.954.1-18.4%7.7%$1.8B
APA47.36.717.6%8.3%$10.0B
ENPH45.035.410.7%11.7%$6.1B
EXE44.733.5-45.7%-16.9%$24.8B
GLNG41.779.9-12.8%18.0%$4.7B
PTEN41.5N/A-10.3%-1.9%$3.2B
APC40.415.712.4%4.6%$11.5B
PNRG35.412.390.0%12.9%$310M
HPK32.712.4-3.8%6.0%$666M
Sector Average39.629.944.1%0.1%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy17 analysts
Buy: 12Hold: 3Sell: 2
Price Target
$124consensus
Low $99Median $119High $151
+19.2% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Chord Energy Corporation operates as an independent exploration and production company. It acquires, exploits, develops, and explores for crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the Williston Basin. The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

CEO
Daniel E. Brown
Employees
762
Beta
0.73
Industry
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
54.1
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-10.7%
High: $116.09
From 52W Low
+29.9%
Low: $79.83
Moving Averages
10-Day
$103.10
Above
20-Day
$101.40
Above
50-Day
$96.20
Above
200-Day
$98.30
Above
60-Day Support
$87.35
60-Day Resistance
$107.45
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 3 — ToppingScore: 30/100

Stock is losing momentum near highs. The 200-day SMA is flattening or beginning to turn. Historically, this stage precedes distribution.

Exercise caution; tighten risk management
Price vs 200 SMA
+5.5%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-1.72%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
1.15x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
15
Confidence: 70%
Recent Gap Up

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$1.2B$1.3B$1.2B$1.2B
Gross Profit$0$195M$172M$373M
Operating Income$92M$171M$-403M$338M
Net Income$482M$130M$-390M$220M
EPS (Diluted)$1.59$2.26$-6.77$3.66
Gross Margin0.0%14.9%14.6%30.7%
Operating Margin7.9%13.0%-34.2%27.8%
Net Margin41.3%9.9%-33.0%18.1%

Why This Stock

EnergyRevenue growth 34.8%Profit margin 16.2%Earnings quality grade AValuation below sector median (P/E 34.5)

Tradability FilterGrade A — 87/100Score impact: -15.7pt

Volume
88
710K avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$75M/day
Float
81
53M shares
Mkt Cap
70
$5.8B
Range
83
45% spread
Composite Liquidity Score87/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$55.11$134.8483.9%Wide
2022$93.35$181.3464.1%Wide
2023$117.05$175.2039.8%Wide
2024$109.59$190.2353.8%Wide
2025$79.83$129.3247.3%Wide
3-Year Range
81.8%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
93.9%
Outstanding Shares
57M
Bid-Ask Spread
45.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.