Back to Dashboard
14

NEXT

⚡ Energy

NextDecade Corporation

Conservative #1363Aggressive #656High RiskModerate 71
$5.35+0.94%
Day High$5.38
Day Low$5.14
Volume2.0M
Mkt Cap$1.4B
52W Low $552W High $12
Market Cap
$1.5B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
0.0%
Sector avg: 46.1%
Earnings Growth
61.9%
Profit Margin
0.0%
Sector avg: 0.4%
Debt/Equity
43.73

Why This Score

NEXT scores 13.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • ML model assigns a high-conviction signal (94/100), indicating strong pattern recognition across 82 features.
  • High conviction (71/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Commodity beta: Oil & Gas E&P stocks carry a 5-point penalty for commodity price sensitivity.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (14.8%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 43.73) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Net penalties of -23.1 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, NEXT would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score13.7
Fundamental Score16.9
ML Score94.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
19.0
6 Month
21.2
Primary
1 Year
22.3

Quality Assessment

D
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns
Quality Flags
Commodity beta: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production earnings driven by commodity prices — cyclical risk not captured by trailing fundamentals
Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 43.7x — balance sheet risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
43
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
61
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
86
Grade A
Base
27.3
SHAP
-4.4
Factors
+0.1
Divergence
-9.3
Final
13.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)42.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)27.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)76.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-8.8% to -3.2%
Medium-term
-11.9% to -3.8%
Long-term
-15.0% to -4.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 94

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score61.1/100
Target Upside+29.3%
Coverage9 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score42.9/100
News Volume2 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.4%
6M Momentum-0.5%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+14.8%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.71)
Relative Strength vs Sector-53.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.5)
Momentum Quality-0.168
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P64
Revenue growth vs Energy peers
Sector PE Rank
P60
Valuation vs Energy peers
Sector FCF Rank
P4
Free cash flow vs Energy peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 36 relative to sector peers36/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 35th percentileP35
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: -4.4pt (features diverge from model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (36.5) + 9% ML (33.6) + SHAP(-4.4) = 31.9
Factor quality: +0.1pt (multi-factor composite)
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.5B market cap)-8.0 pts
Risk Factors
Risk assessment: high. Annualized volatility 14.8%. Max drawdown 54% (-12.0 pts). Price momentum -37% (-6.3 pts)High
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by -26 pointsGrade D
Quality concern: Earnings/revenue growth ratio of Infinityx — earnings quality suspect; High accrual ratio (56.2%) — earnings quality concern; Commodity beta: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production earnings driven by commodity prices — cyclical risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Energy — Rank #23 of 24 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
NEXT13.7N/A0.0%0.0%$1.5B
VNOM71.918.24.0%41.8%$14.4B
FANG67.911.932.2%30.3%$48.5B
TRMD63.89.72.6%21.4%$2.8B
WFRD61.217.1-10.8%8.8%$7.3B
CHRD60.834.534.8%16.2%$5.8B
BKR57.423.5-0.3%9.3%$60.5B
CLMT50.6N/A-100.0%0.0%$2.4B
SHLS49.954.1-18.4%7.7%$1.8B
APA47.36.717.6%8.3%$10.0B
ENPH45.035.410.7%11.7%$6.1B
EXE44.733.5-45.7%-16.9%$24.8B
GLNG41.779.9-12.8%18.0%$4.7B
PTEN41.5N/A-10.3%-1.9%$3.2B
APC40.415.712.4%4.6%$11.5B
PNRG35.412.390.0%12.9%$310M
Sector Average41.129.946.1%0.4%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold9 analysts
Buy: 4Hold: 5
Price Target
$7consensus
Low $7Median $7High $7
+30.8% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

NextDecade Corporation engages in the development activities related to the liquefaction and sale of liquefied natural gas (LNG); and capture and storage of CO2 emissions. The company focuses on the development activities on the Rio Grande LNG terminal facility located in the Port of Brownsville in southern Texas. It also focuses on a carbon capture and storage project (CCS project) at the terminal, as well as on other CCS projects with third-party industrial source facilities. The company was founded in 2010 is based in Houston, Texas.

CEO
Matthew K. Schatzman
Employees
237
Beta
2.02
Industry
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
56.8
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-55.9%
High: $12.12
From 52W Low
+12.6%
Low: $4.75
Moving Averages
10-Day
$5.30
Above
20-Day
$5.30
Above
50-Day
$5.20
Above
200-Day
$7.40
Below
60-Day Support
$4.75
60-Day Resistance
$6.44
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 11/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-27.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-8.32%
Falling
Volume Ratio
0.69x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$0$0$0$0
Gross Profit$-6M$-3M$-3M$-2M
Operating Income$-72M$-56M$-52M$-44M
Net Income$-109M$-61M$-89M$66M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.42$-0.23$-0.34$0.25
Gross MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A
Operating MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A
Net MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A

Why This Stock

Energy

Tradability FilterGrade A — 86/100Score impact: -41.4pt

Volume
100
3.1M avg/day
Dollar Vol
73
$17M/day
Float
100
128M shares
Mkt Cap
49
$1.5B
Range
100
155% spread
Composite Liquidity Score86/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$1.65$6.13115.2%Wide
2022$2.08$8.95124.6%Wide
2023$3.93$8.7476%Wide
2024$4.26$8.5266.7%Wide
2025$4.99$12.1283.3%Wide
3-Year Range
102.2%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
48.5%
Outstanding Shares
265M
Bid-Ask Spread
155.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.