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72

VNOM

⚡ Energy

Viper Energy, Inc.

Conservative #69Aggressive #131Low RiskHigh 99
$45.05-0.97%
Day High$45.95
Day Low$44.37
Volume2.6M
Mkt Cap$14.7B
52W Low $3552W High $48
Market Cap
$14.4B
P/E Ratio
18.2
Sector avg: 29.9
Rev Growth
4.0%
Sector avg: 44.1%
Earnings Growth
79.5%
Profit Margin
41.8%
Sector avg: 0.1%
Debt/Equity
0.64

Why This Score

VNOM scores 71.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 21.3% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High net margin of 41.8%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Low volatility (5.2% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • ML model assigns a high-conviction signal (95/100), indicating strong pattern recognition across 82 features.
  • High conviction (99/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Commodity beta: Oil & Gas E&P stocks carry a 5-point penalty for commodity price sensitivity.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Moderate penalties (-6.6 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score71.9
Fundamental Score69.4
ML Score95.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
66.9
6 Month
74.8
Primary
1 Year
78.8

Quality Assessment

C
Earnings Grade
Mixed fundamentals, potential quality issues
Quality Flags
False stability: 0.052 vol with only 4.0% revenue growth — stagnation, not safety

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
39
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
91
Grade A
Base
69.5
SHAP
+1.8
Factors
+0.6
Conviction
+1.6
Divergence
-1.6
Final
71.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

74AVG
Value70
Quality95
Growth90
Stability75
Investment40

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)78.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)75.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)60.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+1.5% to +6.0%
Medium-term
+2.8% to +9.8%
Long-term
+4.2% to +13.6%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 95

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score39.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.0%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-13.7%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.05)
Relative Strength vs Sector-15.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.1)
Momentum Quality+0.006
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
7%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P72
Revenue growth vs Energy peers
Sector PE Rank
P28
Valuation vs Energy peers
Sector FCF Rank
P88
Free cash flow vs Energy peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 73 relative to sector peers73/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 78th percentileP78
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.7pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (73.0) + 9% ML (78.5) + SHAP(+3.7) = 77.2
Factor quality: +1.3pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 5.2%. Stability bonus of +11.6 points. Max drawdown 16% (-3.0 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($14.4B market cap)+2.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.5pt (conviction=99)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by -11 pointsGrade C
Quality concern: Non-operating loss: operating margin (65.9%) exceeds net margin (41.8%) by 24pp — possible write-down; False stability: 0.1 vol with only 4.0% revenue growth — stagnation, not safetyFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Energy — Rank #1 of 25 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
VNOM71.918.24.0%41.8%$14.4B
FANG67.911.932.2%30.3%$48.5B
TRMD63.89.72.6%21.4%$2.8B
WFRD61.217.1-10.8%8.8%$7.3B
CHRD60.834.534.8%16.2%$5.8B
BKR57.423.5-0.3%9.3%$60.5B
CLMT50.6N/A-100.0%0.0%$2.4B
SHLS49.954.1-18.4%7.7%$1.8B
APA47.36.717.6%8.3%$10.0B
ENPH45.035.410.7%11.7%$6.1B
EXE44.733.5-45.7%-16.9%$24.8B
GLNG41.779.9-12.8%18.0%$4.7B
PTEN41.5N/A-10.3%-1.9%$3.2B
APC40.415.712.4%4.6%$11.5B
PNRG35.412.390.0%12.9%$310M
HPK32.712.4-3.8%6.0%$666M
Sector Average39.629.944.1%0.1%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy42 analysts
Buy: 37Hold: 5
Price Target
$51consensus
Low $44Median $53High $55
+13.7% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Viper Energy Partners LP owns, acquires, and exploits oil and natural gas properties in North America. As of December 31, 2021, it had mineral interests in 27,027 net royalty acres in the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale; and estimated proved oil and natural gas reserves of 127,888 thousand barrels of crude oil equivalent. Viper Energy Partners GP LLC operates as the general partner of the company. The company was founded in 2013 and is based in Midland, Texas. Viper Energy Partners LP is a subsidiary of Diamondback Energy, Inc.

CEO
Matthew Kaes Van't Hof
Employees
0
Beta
0.43
Industry
Oil & Gas Midstream
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
67.8
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-6.6%
High: $48.23
From 52W Low
+29.8%
Low: $34.71
Moving Averages
10-Day
$44.70
Above
20-Day
$43.50
Above
50-Day
$40.30
Above
200-Day
$39.00
Above
60-Day Support
$35.45
60-Day Resistance
$46.44
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 74/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+15.5%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-2.15%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.37x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
25
Confidence: 40%
Breakout Volume Confirmed

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$422M$393M$287M$245M
Gross Profit$159M$184M$142M$161M
Operating Income$141M$174M$135M$155M
Net Income$-103M$-77M$37M$75M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.61$-0.52$0.28$0.62
Gross Margin37.7%46.8%49.5%65.7%
Operating Margin33.4%44.3%47.0%63.3%
Net Margin-24.4%-19.6%12.9%30.6%

Why This Stock

EnergyP/E ratio of 18.2Profit margin 41.8%Earnings quality grade C

Tradability FilterGrade A — 91/100Score impact: -8.7pt

Volume
100
2.1M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$96M/day
Float
80
0K shares
Mkt Cap
82
$14.4B
Range
78
39% spread
Composite Liquidity Score91/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$14.24$25.3256%Wide
2022$21.44$36.1051%Wide
2023$24.48$33.7831.9%Moderate
2024$30.21$56.7661.1%Wide
2025$34.71$52.1040.1%Wide
3-Year Range
79.5%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
stagnation flag

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
39.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.