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50

CLMT

⚡ Energy

Calumet, Inc.

Conservative #550Aggressive #398Low RiskMixed 49F↑ 18pt
$29.59+1.16%
Day High$29.75
Day Low$28.54
Volume0.9M
Mkt Cap$2.6B
52W Low $852W High $30
Market Cap
$2.4B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
-100.0%
Sector avg: 44.1%
Earnings Growth
68.9%
Profit Margin
0.0%
Sector avg: 0.1%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

CLMT scores 50.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E -3.31) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Commodity beta: Oil & Gas E&P stocks carry a 5-point penalty for commodity price sensitivity.
  • Above-average volatility (13.5%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-5.6 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score50.6
Fundamental Score53.0
ML Score63.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
18.4
6 Month
20.6
Primary
1 Year
21.7

Quality Assessment

D
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns
Quality Flags
Commodity beta: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production earnings driven by commodity prices — cyclical risk not captured by trailing fundamentals

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
55
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
55
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
87
Grade A
Base
51.1
SHAP
+0.9
Factors
-0.2
Conviction
-0.1
Divergence
-1.1
Final
50.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)54.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)88.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)53.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-12.5% to -3.3%
Medium-term
-17.0% to -3.7%
Long-term
-21.5% to -4.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 63

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score55.4/100
Target Upside-12.4%
Coverage23 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score55.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+1.0%
6M Momentum+0.8%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+24.1%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.76)
Relative Strength vs Sector+83.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.833
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
16%
Moderate — watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P4
Revenue growth vs Energy peers
Sector PE Rank
P60
Valuation vs Energy peers
Sector FCF Rank
P28
Free cash flow vs Energy peers
Growth Deviation
-0.4σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 52 relative to sector peers52/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 34th percentileP34
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +0.9pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (52.0) + 9% ML (32.2) + SHAP(+0.9) = 51.1
Factor quality: -0.2pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 13.4%. Max drawdown 16% (-3.4 pts)Low
Momentum mean-reversion: -1.0pt (100% 12m momentum)
Market cap adjustment: -4.0 points ($2.4B market cap)-4.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -1.1pt (fund 18pt higher)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by -22 pointsGrade D
Quality concern: Earnings/revenue growth ratio of Infinityx — earnings quality suspect; High accrual ratio (70.4%) — earnings quality concern; Commodity beta: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production earnings driven by commodity prices — cyclical risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Energy — Rank #7 of 25 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CLMT50.6N/A-100.0%0.0%$2.4B
VNOM71.918.24.0%41.8%$14.4B
FANG67.911.932.2%30.3%$48.5B
TRMD63.89.72.6%21.4%$2.8B
WFRD61.217.1-10.8%8.8%$7.3B
CHRD60.834.534.8%16.2%$5.8B
BKR57.423.5-0.3%9.3%$60.5B
SHLS49.954.1-18.4%7.7%$1.8B
APA47.36.717.6%8.3%$10.0B
ENPH45.035.410.7%11.7%$6.1B
EXE44.733.5-45.7%-16.9%$24.8B
GLNG41.779.9-12.8%18.0%$4.7B
PTEN41.5N/A-10.3%-1.9%$3.2B
APC40.415.712.4%4.6%$11.5B
PNRG35.412.390.0%12.9%$310M
HPK32.712.4-3.8%6.0%$666M
Sector Average39.629.944.1%0.1%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold23 analysts
Buy: 6Hold: 16Sell: 1
Price Target
$25consensus
Low $24Median $25High $26
-15.5% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Calumet, Inc. manufactures, formulates, and markets slate of specialty branded products to various consumer-facing and industrial markets in North America and internationally. Its Specialty Products and Solutions segment offers various solvents, waxes, customized lubricating oils, white oils, petrolatums, gels, esters, and other products. The company's Montana/Renewables segment focuses on processing renewable feedstocks into renewable hydrogen, renewable natural gas, renewable propane, renewable naphtha, renewable kerosene/aviation fuel, and renewable diesel. This segment also processes Canadian crude oil into conventional gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and specialty grades of asphalt. Its Performance Brands segment blends, packages, and markets high performance products through Royal Purple, Bel-Ray, and TruFuel brands. Calumet GP, LLC serves as the general partner for Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. The company was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.

CEO
Louis Todd Borgmann
Employees
1,620
Beta
1.21
Industry
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
78.3
Overbought
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-1.1%
High: $29.92
From 52W Low
+285.3%
Low: $7.68
Moving Averages
10-Day
$28.40
Above
20-Day
$26.10
Above
50-Day
$22.50
Above
200-Day
$18.30
Above
60-Day Support
$18.23
60-Day Resistance
$29.92
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 95/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+61.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+19.23%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.2x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%
Recent Gap Up

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$-3.1B$1.1B$1.0B$994M
Gross Profit$-249M$374M$-44M$-81M
Operating Income$-173M$323M$-101M$-49M
Net Income$-73M$313M$-148M$-162M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.04$3.61$-1.70$-1.87
Gross MarginN/A34.7%-4.2%-8.2%
Operating MarginN/A30.0%-9.8%-4.9%
Net MarginN/A29.1%-14.4%-16.3%

Why This Stock

Energy

Tradability FilterGrade A — 87/100Score impact: -6.5pt

Volume
100
994K avg/day
Dollar Vol
86
$29M/day
Float
82
56M shares
Mkt Cap
61
$2.4B
Range
100
290% spread
Composite Liquidity Score87/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$3.64$17.43130.9%Wide
2022$8.40$20.5083.7%Wide
2023$11.91$20.2551.9%Wide
2024$9.97$25.2986.9%Wide
2025$7.68$23.75102.3%Wide
3-Year Range
106.8%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.3x dampening
severe revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
64.5%
Outstanding Shares
87M
Bid-Ask Spread
290.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.