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40

APC

⚡ Energy

ARKO Petroleum Corp. Class A Common Stock

Conservative #846Aggressive #617Moderate RiskModerate 67ML↑ 16pt
$18.68-1.53%
Day High$19.02
Day Low$18.51
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$11.2B
52W Low $1752W High $20
Market Cap
$11.5B
P/E Ratio
15.7
Sector avg: 29.9
Rev Growth
12.4%
Sector avg: 44.1%
Earnings Growth
234.9%
Profit Margin
4.6%
Sector avg: 0.1%
Debt/Equity
1.93

Why This Score

APC scores 40.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Above-average volatility (20.0%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.93) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (0.0 points) applied. APC's rank of #846 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score40.4
Fundamental Score39.0
ML Score26.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
69.0
6 Month
77.1
Primary
1 Year
81.2

Quality Assessment

C
Earnings Grade
Mixed fundamentals, potential quality issues
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-864.1%) — earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
45
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
66
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
84
Grade Asideways trading
Base
37.3
SHAP
+2.9
Factors
+1.1
Divergence
-0.9
Final
40.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)59.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)52.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)65.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage72%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+2.3% to +7.0%
Medium-term
+4.1% to +11.2%
Long-term
+6.0% to +15.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 26

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score65.5/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage50 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score45.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 — Basing
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+0.0%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (0.00)
Relative Strength vs Sector-16.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.0)
Momentum Quality+0.000
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
2%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P80
Revenue growth vs Energy peers
Sector PE Rank
P36
Valuation vs Energy peers
Sector FCF Rank
P32
Free cash flow vs Energy peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 65 relative to sector peers65/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 81th percentileP81
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.3pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (64.7) + 9% ML (81.1) + SHAP(+3.3) = 69.5
Factor quality: +1.3pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 20.0%Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($11.5B market cap)+2.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -0.9pt (ML 16pt higher)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by -19 pointsGrade C
Quality concern: Earnings growth (235%) far exceeds revenue growth (12.4%) — margin expansion may not be sustainable; High accrual ratio (-864.1%) — earnings quality concern; High leverage: D/E ratio of 1.9x — elevated balance sheet riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Energy — Rank #14 of 25 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
APC40.415.712.4%4.6%$11.5B
VNOM71.918.24.0%41.8%$14.4B
FANG67.911.932.2%30.3%$48.5B
TRMD63.89.72.6%21.4%$2.8B
WFRD61.217.1-10.8%8.8%$7.3B
CHRD60.834.534.8%16.2%$5.8B
BKR57.423.5-0.3%9.3%$60.5B
CLMT50.6N/A-100.0%0.0%$2.4B
SHLS49.954.1-18.4%7.7%$1.8B
APA47.36.717.6%8.3%$10.0B
ENPH45.035.410.7%11.7%$6.1B
EXE44.733.5-45.7%-16.9%$24.8B
GLNG41.779.9-12.8%18.0%$4.7B
PTEN41.5N/A-10.3%-1.9%$3.2B
PNRG35.412.390.0%12.9%$310M
HPK32.712.4-3.8%6.0%$666M
Sector Average39.629.944.1%0.1%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy50 analysts
Buy: 32Hold: 17Sell: 1

Company Overviewvia FMP

ARKO Petroleum Corp. operates as a fuel distributor in North America. The company operates under three segments: wholesale, fleet fueling, and GPMP. It offers fee-based wholesale distribution of motor fuel to Its retail sites and to third-party dealers under long-term contracts. The company was incorporated in 2025 and is based in Richmond, Virginia. ARKO Petroleum Corp. operates as a subsidiary of Arko Convenience Stores LLC.

CEO
Arie Kotler
Beta
0.00
Industry
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
N/A
Trend
N/A
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-4.2%
High: $19.5
From 52W Low
+9.9%
Low: $17
Moving Averages
10-Day
$18.50
Above
20-Day
N/A
50-Day
N/A
200-Day
N/A
60-Day Support
$17
60-Day Resistance
$19.5

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2024Q2 2019Q1 2019Q4 2018
Revenue$1.4B$3.4B$3.2B$3.3B
Gross Profit$45M$3.2B$3.0B$3.0B
Operating Income$20M$-215M$834M$270M
Net Income$8M$-945M$96M$102M
EPS (Diluted)$0.00$-1.92$0.20$0.20
Gross Margin3.1%92.0%92.0%91.0%
Operating Margin1.4%-6.2%25.9%8.1%
Net Margin0.5%-27.5%3.0%3.0%

Why This Stock

EnergyP/E ratio of 15.7Revenue growth 12.4%Valuation below sector median (P/E 15.7)

Tradability FilterGrade A — 84/100Score impact: -6.4pt

Volume
100
1.7M avg/day
Dollar Vol
88
$32M/day
Float
100
145M shares
Mkt Cap
81
$11.5B
Range
0
15% spread
Composite Liquidity Score84/100
FDCBA
sideways trading

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
24.1%
Outstanding Shares
600M
Bid-Ask Spread
15.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.