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EXE

⚡ Energy

Expand Energy Corporation

Conservative #717Aggressive #665Low RiskHigh 95
$106.05+2.78%
Day High$106.41
Day Low$103.01
Volume3.0M
Mkt Cap$25.3B
52W Low $9152W High $127
Market Cap
$24.8B
P/E Ratio
33.5
Sector avg: 29.9
Rev Growth
-45.7%
Sector avg: 44.1%
Earnings Growth
-129.5%
Profit Margin
-16.9%
Sector avg: 0.1%
Debt/Equity
0.33

Why This Score

EXE scores 44.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • ML model assigns a high-conviction signal (95/100), indicating strong pattern recognition across 82 features.
  • High conviction (95/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Commodity beta: Oil & Gas E&P stocks carry a 5-point penalty for commodity price sensitivity.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Net penalties of -10.9 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, EXE would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score44.7
Fundamental Score40.7
ML Score95.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
48.4
6 Month
54.1
Primary
1 Year
56.9

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality
Quality Flags
Commodity beta: Oil & Gas E&P earnings driven by commodity prices — cyclical risk not captured by trailing fundamentals

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
64
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
74
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
96
Grade A
Base
46.6
SHAP
+1.8
Factors
+0.5
Conviction
+1.7
Divergence
-5.9
Final
44.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

47AVG
Value55
Quality40
Growth35
Stability75
Investment30

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)21.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)73.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)84.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.8% to +0.8%
Medium-term
-8.4% to +1.4%
Long-term
-11.0% to +2.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 95

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score73.7/100
Target Upside+32.6%
Coverage19 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score63.6/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 — Basing
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-1.1%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.88)
Relative Strength vs Sector-7.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.9)
Momentum Quality+0.071
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
15%
Moderate — watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P8
Revenue growth vs Energy peers
Sector PE Rank
P20
Valuation vs Energy peers
Sector FCF Rank
P84
Free cash flow vs Energy peers
Growth Deviation
-0.2σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 59 relative to sector peers59/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 57th percentileP57
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.1pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (59.4) + 9% ML (57.1) + SHAP(+3.1) = 62.3
Factor quality: +0.9pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 9.5%. Max drawdown 17% (-3.7 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($24.8B market cap)+2.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.0pt (conviction=95)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -7 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: Commodity beta: Oil & Gas E&P earnings driven by commodity prices — cyclical risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Energy — Rank #11 of 25 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
EXE44.733.5-45.7%-16.9%$24.8B
VNOM71.918.24.0%41.8%$14.4B
FANG67.911.932.2%30.3%$48.5B
TRMD63.89.72.6%21.4%$2.8B
WFRD61.217.1-10.8%8.8%$7.3B
CHRD60.834.534.8%16.2%$5.8B
BKR57.423.5-0.3%9.3%$60.5B
CLMT50.6N/A-100.0%0.0%$2.4B
SHLS49.954.1-18.4%7.7%$1.8B
APA47.36.717.6%8.3%$10.0B
ENPH45.035.410.7%11.7%$6.1B
GLNG41.779.9-12.8%18.0%$4.7B
PTEN41.5N/A-10.3%-1.9%$3.2B
APC40.415.712.4%4.6%$11.5B
PNRG35.412.390.0%12.9%$310M
HPK32.712.4-3.8%6.0%$666M
Sector Average39.629.944.1%0.1%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Company Overviewvia FMP

Expand Energy Corporation operates as an independent exploration and production company in the United States. It engages in acquisition, exploration, and development of properties to produce oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids from underground reservoirs. The company holds interests in natural gas resource plays in the Marcellus Shale in the northern Appalachian Basin in Pennsylvania and the Haynesville/Bossier Shales in northwestern Louisiana. As of December 31, 2023, the company owns a portfolio of onshore U.S. unconventional natural gas assets, including interests in approximately 5,000 natural gas wells. The company was formerly known as Chesapeake Energy Corporation and changed its name to Expand Energy Corporation in October 2024. Expand Energy Corporation was founded in 1989 and is based in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.

CEO
Michael A. Wichterich
Employees
1,500
Beta
0.45
Industry
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
45.1
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-16.2%
High: $126.62
From 52W Low
+16.5%
Low: $91.02
Moving Averages
10-Day
$103.80
Above
20-Day
$106.00
Above
50-Day
$106.90
Below
200-Day
$107.50
Below
60-Day Support
$98.35
60-Day Resistance
$126.62
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 1 — BasingScore: 41/100

Stock is building a base after a decline. The 200-day moving average is flattening. Watch for a breakout above the 200-day SMA on increased volume.

Monitor for breakout above 200-day SMA on volume
Transition signal: 1→2
Price vs 200 SMA
-1.3%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+1.19%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
1.38x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
3
Confidence: 80%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$3.0B$3.0B$3.7B$2.2B
Gross Profit$1.4B$2.4B$1.4B$775M
Operating Income$557M$725M$1.3B$-268M
Net Income$553M$547M$968M$-249M
EPS (Diluted)$2.30$2.27$4.02$-1.06
Gross Margin46.4%79.5%38.3%35.3%
Operating Margin18.3%24.4%34.4%-12.2%
Net Margin18.1%18.4%26.3%-11.3%

Why This Stock

EnergyValuation below sector median (P/E 33.5)

Tradability FilterGrade A — 96/100Score impact: -37.8pt

Volume
100
3.6M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$368M/day
Float
100
238M shares
Mkt Cap
87
$24.8B
Range
76
39% spread
Composite Liquidity Score96/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 8/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$40.00$69.4053.7%Wide
2022$61.45$107.3154.3%Wide
2023$69.68$93.5329.2%Moderate
2024$69.12$101.4637.9%Wide
2025$91.02$126.6232.7%Moderate
3-Year Range
58.8%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.3x dampening
severe revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
99.8%
Outstanding Shares
238M
Bid-Ask Spread
39.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.