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31

TARS

🏥 Healthcare

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Conservative #1079Aggressive #916Moderate RiskHigh 97
$72.65-3.15%
Day High$76.25
Day Low$71.15
Volume1.0M
Mkt Cap$3.1B
52W Low $3952W High $85
Market Cap
$2.8B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
948.6%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
15.0%
Profit Margin
-22.2%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.25

Why This Score

TARS scores 31.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Positive but moderate momentum (37%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
  • High conviction (97/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (18.2%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-5.1 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score31.2
Fundamental Score38.1
ML Score9.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
56.9
6 Month
63.6
Primary
1 Year
67.0

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $2.8B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary risk
Speculative Classification
Speculative growth — negative margins and ROE with momentum-driven price action. High risk of mean reversion.
Conservative score reduced by 3 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.4%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
73
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
82
Grade A
Base
29.3
SHAP
+0.8
Factors
+1.0
Conviction
+2.2
Divergence
-2.1
Final
31.2
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)61.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)70.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)87.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-0.4% to +3.8%
Medium-term
+0.2% to +6.8%
Long-term
+0.8% to +9.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 9

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+28.8%
Coverage9 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score73.3/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.4%
6M Momentum+0.0%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+32.9%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.10)
Relative Strength vs Sector+12.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.0)
Momentum Quality+0.272
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P98
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P40
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P48
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.7σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 68 relative to sector peers68/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 67th percentileP67
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.2pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (68.1) + 9% ML (64.7) + SHAP(+1.2) = 69.0
Factor quality: +1.4pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 18.2%. Max drawdown 26% (-7.1 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -4.0 points ($2.8B market cap)-4.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.2pt (conviction=97)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -10 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (33.5%) — earnings quality concern; Pipeline concentration: $2.8B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #206 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
TARS31.2N/A948.6%-22.2%$2.8B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy9 analysts
Strong Buy: 1Buy: 7Hold: 1
Price Target
$89consensus
Low $68Median $94High $100
+22.5% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of novel therapeutic candidates for ophthalmic conditions. Its lead product candidate is TP-03, a novel therapeutic that is in Phase III for the treatment of blepharitis caused by the infestation of Demodex mites, as well as to treat meibomian gland disease. The company is also developing TP-04 for the treatment of rosacea; and TP-05 for Lyme prophylaxis and community malaria reduction. In addition, the company develops lotilaner to address diseases across therapeutic categories in human medicine, including eye care, dermatology, and other diseases. Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Irvine, California.

CEO
Bobak R. Azamian
Employees
323
Beta
0.58
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
66.8
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-14.8%
High: $85.25
From 52W Low
+88.7%
Low: $38.51
Moving Averages
10-Day
$66.50
Above
20-Day
$65.70
Above
50-Day
$72.50
Above
200-Day
$59.90
Above
60-Day Support
$60.54
60-Day Resistance
$85.25
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 90/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+21.3%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+14.87%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.29x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%
Recent Gap Up

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$152M$119M$103M$78M
Gross Profit$157M$94M$96M$73M
Operating Income$-8M$-15M$-22M$-26M
Net Income$-8M$-13M$-20M$-25M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.20$-0.30$-0.48$-0.64
Gross Margin103.5%79.3%93.9%93.3%
Operating Margin-5.3%-12.2%-21.6%-33.5%
Net Margin-5.5%-10.6%-19.8%-32.1%

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 948.6%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 82/100Score impact: -21.1pt

Volume
83
584K avg/day
Dollar Vol
94
$41M/day
Float
70
40M shares
Mkt Cap
62
$2.8B
Range
100
121% spread
Composite Liquidity Score82/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$21.00$40.6263.7%Wide
2022$10.80$24.8979%Wide
2023$11.33$25.2576.1%Wide
2024$18.99$57.14100.2%Wide
2025$38.51$85.2575.5%Wide
3-Year Range
153.1%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
93.8%
Outstanding Shares
42M
Bid-Ask Spread
121.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.