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KALV

๐Ÿฅ Healthcare

KalVista Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Conservative #1384Aggressive #1300Moderate Risk
$15.76+0.00%
Day High$15.89
Day Low$15.26
Volume0.4M
Mkt Cap$797M
52W Low $952W High $19
Market Cap
$800M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
0.0%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-44.9%
Profit Margin
-1391.1%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
8.80

Why This Score

KALV scores 7.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Positive but moderate momentum (31%) โ€” steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (13.9%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 8.80) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Net penalties of -12.3 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, KALV would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score7.9
Fundamental Score22.0
ML Score5.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
11.1
6 Month
12.4
Primary
1 Year
13.1

Quality Assessment

F
Quality Grade
Low quality โ€” significant fundamental weaknesses
2 quality flags detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $0.8B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary risk
Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 8.8x โ€” balance sheet risk
Speculative Classification
Speculative growth โ€” negative margins and ROE with momentum-driven price action. High risk of mean reversion.
Anomalous margin data โ€” extreme values suggest one-time events or accounting irregularities.
Conservative score reduced by 7 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
83
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
73
Grade B
Base
9.6
SHAP
+0.1
Factors
-1.5
Divergence
-0.3
Final
7.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

27AVG
Value50
Quality0
Growth20
Stability54
Investment11

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)25.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)74.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)89.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-18.1% to -11.4%
Medium-term
-25.0% to -15.3%
Long-term
-31.5% to -18.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 5

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+109.9%
Coverage13 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score82.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.3%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+20.1%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.35)
Relative Strength vs Sector+6.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.2)
Momentum Quality+0.244
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P41
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P22
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P8
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 22 relative to sector peers22/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 5th percentileP5
Blended score: 80% fundamental (22) + 20% ML (5) = 18.618.6
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 21% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade F: quality flags triggered โ€” see details below. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade F
SHAP feature alignment: +0.1pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Divergence penalty: -0.3pt (ML 17pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: Pipeline concentration: $0.8B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary risk; Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 8.8x โ€” balance sheet riskFlag
Speculative: SPEC_GROWTH, ANOMALY_MARGIN (7.0pt penalty)Speculative
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare โ€” Rank #331 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
KALV7.9N/A0.0%-1391.1%$800M
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
ASND78.316.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.3B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
Sector Average36.641.9161.5%-3292.7%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Company Overviewvia FMP

KalVista Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a clinical stage pharmaceutical company, discovers, develops, and commercializes small molecule protease inhibitors for diseases with unmet needs. The company's product portfolio comprises small molecule plasma kallikrein inhibitors targeting hereditary angioedema (HAE) and diabetic macular edema (DME); and oral plasma kallikrein inhibitors. Its products include KVD001, a plasma kallikrein inhibitor that completed a Phase II clinical trial for the treatment of DME; sebetralstat, which is initiation of the Phase 3 KONFIDENT trial as a potential oral, on-demand therapy for HAE attacks; KVD824, an oral product candidate for the treatment of HAE; and Factor XIIa, an oral inhibitor program which is in preclinical stage targets an enzyme in HAE. The company is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

CEO
Benjamin L. Palleiko
Employees
150
Beta
-0.35
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
69.4
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-17.1%
High: $19
From 52W Low
+70.6%
Low: $9.24
Moving Averages
10-Day
$15.50
Above
20-Day
$15.40
Above
50-Day
$15.50
Above
200-Day
$13.70
Above
60-Day Support
$13.28
60-Day Resistance
$19
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 79/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+15%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+9.13%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.57x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
72
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025
Revenue$14M$1M$0$0
Gross Profit$12M$836,000$-16M$0
Operating Income$-46M$-59M$-55M$-43M
Net Income$-49M$-60M$-52M$-49M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.92$-1.12$-1.05$-0.92
Gross Margin91.0%58.6%N/AN/A
Operating Margin-336.3%-4138.1%N/AN/A
Net Margin-361.4%-4214.3%N/AN/A

Why This Stock

Healthcare

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 73/100Score impact: -33.9pt

Volume
100
1.2M avg/day
Dollar Vol
77
$19M/day
Float
40
0K shares
Mkt Cap
36
$800M
Range
100
106% spread
Composite Liquidity Score73/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$11.99$36.21100.5%Wide
2022$4.12$17.34123.2%Wide
2023$6.20$12.7569.1%Wide
2024$7.97$16.8871.7%Wide
2025$7.30$17.3081.3%Wide
3-Year Range
94.5%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
106.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.