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43

VCYT

🏥 Healthcare

Veracyte, Inc.

Conservative #778Aggressive #829Moderate RiskModerate 76ML↑ 17pt
$35.72+0.08%
Day High$36.66
Day Low$35.58
Volume0.7M
Mkt Cap$2.8B
52W Low $2352W High $51
Market Cap
$2.8B
P/E Ratio
92.5
Sector avg: 252.3
Rev Growth
23.5%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
132.4%
Profit Margin
6.1%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.03

Why This Score

VCYT scores 42.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.03) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (76/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 92.5x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (15.3%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-3.6 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score42.7
Fundamental Score50.2
ML Score11.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
74.1
6 Month
82.8
Primary
1 Year
87.2

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-257.1%) — earnings quality concern
Pipeline concentration: $2.8B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
59
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
65
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
81
Grade A
Base
42.3
SHAP
+2.6
Factors
+1.4
Divergence
-3.6
Final
42.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)53.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)68.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)81.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+9.3% to +15.4%
Medium-term
+14.3% to +23.4%
Long-term
+21.5% to +34.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 11

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score65.0/100
Target Upside+33.8%
Coverage20 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score58.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.0%
6M Momentum+0.2%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-15.0%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.16)
Relative Strength vs Sector-21.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.2)
Momentum Quality+0.022
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P73
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P6
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P75
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 72 relative to sector peers72/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 88th percentileP88
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.0pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (71.8) + 9% ML (88.5) + SHAP(+3.0) = 76.3—
Factor quality: +1.6pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 15.3%. Max drawdown 24% (-6.6 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -4.0 points ($2.8B market cap)-4.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -0.9pt (ML 17pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -10 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-257.1%) — earnings quality concern; Pipeline concentration: $2.8B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary risk; R&D-adjusted ROIC: 1.5% (original: 1.9%). Biotechnology has ~40% R&D intensity. Capitalizing R&D over 5 years increases invested capital by ~100%.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #117 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
VCYT42.792.523.5%6.1%$2.8B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy20 analysts
Buy: 13Hold: 6Sell: 1
Price Target
$47consensus
Low $43Median $48High $50
+32.3% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Veracyte, Inc. operates as a diagnostics company worldwide. The company offers Afirma Genomic Sequencing Classifier and Xpression Atlas, which are used to determine patients with indeterminate results are benign to avoid unnecessary surgery; Decipher Prostate Biopsy and Radical Prostatectomy for prostate cancer diagnosis; Prosigna Breast Cancer Assay for breast cancer diagnosis; Percepta Genomic Sequencing Classifier and Percepta Nasal Swab Test for lung cancer diagnosis; Envisia Genomic Classifier for diagnosing interstitial lung disease, including idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis; and Immunoscore Colon Cancer test for colon cancer diagnosis. It is also developing Percepta Genomic Atlas to help inform lung cancer treatment decisions; Envisia Classifier, the nCounter analysis system; and LymphMark for lymphoma subtyping test. Veracyte, Inc. has technology licensing and collaboration arrangements with Johnson & Johnson; Acerta Pharma; and CareDx. The company was formerly known as Calderome, Inc. and changed its name to Veracyte, Inc. in March 2008. Veracyte, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.

CEO
Marc A. Stapley
Employees
824
Beta
1.91
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
47.6
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-29.6%
High: $50.71
From 52W Low
+58%
Low: $22.61
Moving Averages
10-Day
$35.90
Below
20-Day
$36.50
Below
50-Day
$40.20
Below
200-Day
$34.20
Above
60-Day Support
$34.17
60-Day Resistance
$48.1
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 70/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+4.4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+7.99%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.03x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$141M$132M$130M$114M
Gross Profit$102M$91M$90M$80M
Operating Income$37M$23M$-5M$3M
Net Income$41M$19M$-980,000$7M
EPS (Diluted)$0.50$0.24$-0.01$0.09
Gross Margin72.5%69.2%69.0%69.5%
Operating Margin26.4%17.4%-4.0%2.5%
Net Margin29.3%14.5%-0.8%6.2%

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 23.5%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 81/100Score impact: -10.4pt

Volume
93
823K avg/day
Dollar Vol
86
$29M/day
Float
60
0K shares
Mkt Cap
62
$2.8B
Range
100
124% spread
Composite Liquidity Score81/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$32.87$64.9665.6%Wide
2022$14.85$42.9597.2%Wide
2023$19.52$30.5244%Wide
2024$18.61$46.0084.8%Wide
2025$22.61$50.7176.7%Wide
3-Year Range
92.6%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
124.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.