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50

KNSA

🏥 Healthcare

Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals, Ltd.

Conservative #559Aggressive #1080Low RiskModerate 65ML↑ 18pt
$42.76-1.70%
Day High$43.50
Day Low$41.70
Volume1.1M
Mkt Cap$3.1B
52W Low $1852W High $48
Market Cap
$3.5B
P/E Ratio
97.9
Sector avg: 252.3
Rev Growth
56.6%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-406.7%
Profit Margin
6.0%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.02

Why This Score

KNSA scores 50.3 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.02) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (124%) increases mean-reversion probability. 3-point penalty applied.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 97.9x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.

Moderate penalties (-9.8 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score50.3
Fundamental Score68.1
ML Score8.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
72.2
6 Month
80.7
Primary
1 Year
85.0

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $3.5B biotech/pharma — limited product diversification

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
74
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
82
Grade A
Base
53.1
SHAP
+2.6
Factors
+1.4
Divergence
-6.8
Final
50.3
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)40.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)92.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)87.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+10.9% to +17.2%
Medium-term
+16.1% to +25.6%
Long-term
+23.9% to +37.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 8

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+16.4%
Coverage10 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score73.7/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+1.2%
6M Momentum+0.4%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+88.3%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.29)
Relative Strength vs Sector+99.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+1.179
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P87
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P5
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P71
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 69 relative to sector peers69/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 86th percentileP86
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.1pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (68.6) + 9% ML (86.2) + SHAP(+3.1) = 73.3—
Factor quality: +1.6pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 7.6%Low
Momentum mean-reversion: -2.2pt (124% 12m momentum)—
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($3.5B market cap)+0.5 pts
Divergence penalty: -1.0pt (ML 18pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-186.4%) — earnings quality concern; Pipeline concentration: $3.5B biotech/pharma — limited product diversification; R&D-adjusted ROIC: 3.8% (original: 4.8%). Biotechnology has ~40% R&D intensity. Capitalizing R&D over 5 years increases invested capital by ~100%.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #76 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
KNSA50.397.956.6%6.0%$3.5B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy10 analysts
Buy: 10
Price Target
$56consensus
Low $50Median $55High $62
+30.2% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals, Ltd., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on discovering, acquiring, developing, and commercializing therapeutic medicines for patients suffering from debilitating diseases with significant unmet medical needs worldwide. Its product candidates include ARCALYST, an interleukin-1alpha and interleukin-1beta, for the treatment of recurrent pericarditis, which is an inflammatory cardiovascular disease; Mavrilimumab, a monoclonal antibody inhibitor that completed Phase II clinical trials for the treatment of giant cell arteritis; Vixarelimab, a monoclonal antibody, which is in Phase 2a clinical trial for the treatment of prurigo nodularis, a chronic inflammatory skin condition; and KPL-404, a monoclonal antibody inhibitor of the CD40- CD154 interaction, a T-cell co-stimulatory signal critical for B-cell maturation, immunoglobulin class switching, and type 1 immune response. Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals, Ltd. was incorporated in 2015 and is based in Hamilton, Bermuda.

CEO
Sanj K. Patel
Employees
315
Beta
0.05
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
46.7
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-12.9%
High: $49.12
From 52W Low
+134.2%
Low: $18.26
Moving Averages
10-Day
$45.40
Below
20-Day
$44.70
Below
50-Day
$42.90
Below
200-Day
$36.10
Above
60-Day Support
$37.02
60-Day Resistance
$49.12
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 72/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+18.4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+20.75%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.07x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%
Recent Gap Down

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$202M$181M$157M$138M
Gross Profit$-259M$97M$86M$76M
Operating Income$20M$24M$20M$13M
Net Income$74M$18M$18M$9M
EPS (Diluted)$0.18$0.23$0.23$0.11
Gross Margin-128.2%53.8%54.7%55.3%
Operating Margin9.8%13.3%12.9%9.6%
Net Margin36.6%10.2%11.4%6.2%

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 56.6%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 82/100Score impact: -3.8pt

Volume
80
512K avg/day
Dollar Vol
83
$24M/day
Float
88
70M shares
Mkt Cap
64
$3.5B
Range
100
169% spread
Composite Liquidity Score82/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$10.30$24.2280.6%Wide
2022$7.36$17.2080.1%Wide
2023$10.29$20.6567%Wide
2024$16.56$28.1551.8%Wide
2025$17.82$44.4285.5%Wide
3-Year Range
124.8%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
95.6%
Outstanding Shares
73M
Bid-Ask Spread
169.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.