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APLS

🏥 Healthcare

Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Conservative #827Aggressive #859Moderate RiskHigh 83
$21.42-3.21%
Day High$22.40
Day Low$20.94
Volume2.3M
Mkt Cap$2.7B
52W Low $1652W High $30
Market Cap
$2.8B
P/E Ratio
62.4
Sector avg: 252.3
Rev Growth
97.0%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
62.6%
Profit Margin
4.4%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
1.18

Why This Score

APLS scores 40.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 18.9% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High conviction (83/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 62.4x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (14.8%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.19) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (-2.3 points) applied. APLS's rank of #827 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score40.9
Fundamental Score45.2
ML Score15.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
58.8
6 Month
65.7
Primary
1 Year
69.1

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $2.8B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
60
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
68
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
86
Grade A
Base
39.2
SHAP
+1.8
Factors
+1.1
Conviction
+1.1
Divergence
-2.3
Final
40.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)57.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)48.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)82.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-0.3% to +4.0%
Medium-term
+0.3% to +6.8%
Long-term
+0.8% to +9.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 15

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score68.0/100
Target Upside+50.2%
Coverage25 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score59.6/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 — Basing
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum-0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+7.6%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.64)
Relative Strength vs Sector-38.1%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.9)
Momentum Quality-0.106
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P91
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P9
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P71
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 60 relative to sector peers60/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 68th percentileP68
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (59.8) + 9% ML (68.4) + SHAP(+2.4) = 63.0
Factor quality: +1.5pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 14.8%. Max drawdown 23% (-5.9 pts). Price momentum -14% (-1.7 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -4.0 points ($2.8B market cap)-4.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +1.6pt (conviction=83)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -10 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-75.3%) — earnings quality concern; Pipeline concentration: $2.8B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary risk; R&D-adjusted ROIC: 7.0% (original: 8.8%). Biotechnology has ~40% R&D intensity. Capitalizing R&D over 5 years increases invested capital by ~100%.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #128 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
APLS40.962.497.0%4.4%$2.8B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy25 analysts
Strong Buy: 1Buy: 17Hold: 6Sell: 1
Price Target
$34consensus
Low $19Median $31High $52
+56.4% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of therapeutic compounds through the inhibition of the complement system for autoimmune and inflammatory diseases. The company's lead product candidate is pegcetacoplan that is in Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of geographic atrophy (GA) in age-related macular degeneration and paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH) diseases. It also develops EMPAVELI (systemic pegcetacoplan) for the treatment of cold agglutinin disease (CAD), and hematopoietic stem cell transplantation-associated thrombotic microangiopathy (HSCT-TMA) in hematology; C3 glomerulopathy (C3G), and immune complex membranoproliferative glomerulonephritis (IC-MPGN) in nephrology; and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) in neurology. In addition, the company develops APL-2006, a bispecific C3 and VEGF inhibitor for treating complement-mediated disorders; APL-1030, a C3 inhibitor for the treatment of multiple neurodegenerative diseases; and the combination of EMPAVELI and a small interfering RNA, or siRNA for reducing the production of C3 proteins by the liver. It has a collaboration and license agreement with Swedish Orphan Biovitrum AB (publ) to co-develop pegcetacoplan; and a research collaboration with Beam Therapeutics Inc. focused on the use of Beam's base editing technology to discover new treatments for complement-driven diseases. Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is based in Waltham, Massachusetts.

CEO
Cedric Francois
Employees
705
Beta
0.25
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
36.5
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-29.7%
High: $30.48
From 52W Low
+33%
Low: $16.1
Moving Averages
10-Day
$22.10
Below
20-Day
$22.50
Below
50-Day
$23.30
Below
200-Day
$22.30
Below
60-Day Support
$19.26
60-Day Resistance
$27.46
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 1 — BasingScore: 39/100

Stock is building a base after a decline. The 200-day moving average is flattening. Watch for a breakout above the 200-day SMA on increased volume.

Monitor for breakout above 200-day SMA on volume
Transition signal: 1→2
Price vs 200 SMA
-3.9%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+0.71%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
0.69x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
2
Confidence: 80%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$-114M$459M$178M$167M
Gross Profit$-144M$434M$164M$132M
Operating Income$-51M$223M$-33M$-83M
Net Income$-81M$216M$-42M$-92M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.64$1.71$-0.33$-0.74
Gross MarginN/A94.7%92.1%79.4%
Operating MarginN/A48.7%-18.6%-50.0%
Net MarginN/A47.0%-23.6%-55.3%

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 97.0%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 86/100Score impact: -2.3pt

Volume
100
2.8M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$63M/day
Float
60
0K shares
Mkt Cap
62
$2.8B
Range
100
89% spread
Composite Liquidity Score86/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$27.50$73.0090.5%Wide
2022$33.32$70.0071%Wide
2023$19.83$94.75130.8%Wide
2024$24.34$73.80100.8%Wide
2025$16.10$35.5775.4%Wide
3-Year Range
141.9%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
89.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.