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ADPT

🏥 Healthcare

Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation

Conservative #968Aggressive #413Moderate RiskModerate 76
$16.21+1.00%
Day High$16.44
Day Low$15.85
Volume1.0M
Mkt Cap$2.5B
52W Low $652W High $21
Market Cap
$2.3B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
54.8%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
62.7%
Profit Margin
-21.5%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
1.28

Why This Score

ADPT scores 35.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High conviction (76/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Above-average volatility (16.2%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.28) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (-3.0 points) applied. ADPT's rank of #968 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score35.6
Fundamental Score37.6
ML Score31.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
65.7
6 Month
73.4
Primary
1 Year
77.3

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $2.3B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary risk
Speculative Classification
Speculative growth — negative margins and ROE with momentum-driven price action. High risk of mean reversion.
Conservative score reduced by 3 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.9%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
77
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
63
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
92
Grade A
Base
33.3
SHAP
+1.2
Factors
+1.1
Final
35.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)60.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)81.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)85.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+4.7% to +9.9%
Medium-term
+7.9% to +15.9%
Long-term
+11.7% to +22.6%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 31

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score63.2/100
Target Upside+39.0%
Coverage17 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score77.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.9%
6M Momentum+0.2%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+72.5%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.23)
Relative Strength vs Sector+69.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.768
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
3%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P86
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P40
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P49
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 64 relative to sector peers64/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 77th percentileP77
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.2pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (64.5) + 9% ML (74.5) + SHAP(+1.2) = 66.6
Factor quality: +1.1pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 16.2%. Max drawdown 18% (-4.2 pts)Moderate
Momentum mean-reversion: -0.7pt (94% 12m momentum)
Market cap adjustment: -4.0 points ($2.3B market cap)-4.0 pts
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -7 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: Pipeline concentration: $2.3B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #166 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ADPT35.6N/A54.8%-21.5%$2.3B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy17 analysts
Buy: 11Hold: 4Sell: 2
Price Target
$21consensus
Low $21Median $21High $22
+31.1% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation, a commercial-stage company, develops an immune medicine platform for the diagnosis and treatment of various diseases. The company offers immunoSEQ, a platform and core immunosequencing product that is used to answer translational research questions, as well as to discover new prognostic and diagnostic signals; and T-Detect COVID for the confirmation of past COVID-19 infection. It also provides clonoSEQ, a clinical diagnostic product for the detection and monitoring of minimal residual disease in patients with multiple myeloma, B cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia, and chronic lymphocytic leukemia, as well as available as a CLIA-validated laboratory developed test for patients with other lymphoid cancers; and immunoSEQ T-MAP COVID for vaccine developers and researchers to measure the T-cell immune response to vaccines. In addition, the company offers a pipeline of clinical products and services that are used for the diagnosing, monitoring, and treatment of diseases, such as cancer, autoimmune conditions, and infectious diseases. It serves the life sciences research, clinical diagnostics, and drug discovery applications. Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation has strategic collaborations with Genentech, Inc. for the development, manufacture, and commercialization of neoantigen directed T cell therapies for the treatment of a range of cancers; and Microsoft Corporation to develop diagnostic tests for the early detection of various diseases from a single blood test. The company was formerly known as Adaptive TCR Corporation and changed its name to Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation in December 2011. Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.

CEO
Chad Robins
Employees
619
Beta
2.18
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
38.7
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-21.9%
High: $20.76
From 52W Low
+158.9%
Low: $6.26
Moving Averages
10-Day
$15.80
Above
20-Day
$16.60
Below
50-Day
$16.80
Below
200-Day
$14.00
Above
60-Day Support
$14.58
60-Day Resistance
$19.8
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 81/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+15.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+23.52%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.75x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$72M$94M$59M$52M
Gross Profit$53M$76M$41M$35M
Operating Income$-13M$10M$-25M$-30M
Net Income$-14M$10M$-26M$-30M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.09$0.06$-0.17$-0.20
Gross Margin74.6%80.7%69.4%67.6%
Operating Margin-17.8%10.9%-42.5%-56.4%
Net Margin-18.9%10.2%-43.5%-56.9%

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 54.8%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 92/100Score impact: -22.7pt

Volume
100
2.4M avg/day
Dollar Vol
91
$37M/day
Float
100
147M shares
Mkt Cap
61
$2.3B
Range
100
232% spread
Composite Liquidity Score92/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$24.01$59.7185.3%Wide
2022$5.96$28.92131.7%Wide
2023$2.61$10.79122.2%Wide
2024$2.28$7.07102.5%Wide
2025$5.96$20.76110.8%Wide
3-Year Range
160.4%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
96.4%
Outstanding Shares
153M
Bid-Ask Spread
232.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.