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35

IDYA

🏥 Healthcare

IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc.

Conservative #981Aggressive #913Low RiskLow 36F↑ 24pt
$31.67-1.25%
Day High$32.95
Day Low$31.58
Volume0.8M
Mkt Cap$2.8B
52W Low $1352W High $39
Market Cap
$2.8B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
3024.4%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
58.6%
Profit Margin
-52.0%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.05

Why This Score

IDYA scores 35.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.05) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (11.8%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -10.4 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, IDYA would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score35.4
Fundamental Score51.5
ML Score5.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
38.8
6 Month
43.3
Primary
1 Year
45.6

Quality Assessment

D
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $2.8B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary risk
Speculative Classification
Conservative score reduced by 3 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
80
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
73
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
89
Grade A
Base
39.2
SHAP
+1.8
Factors
+0.5
Conviction
-1.3
Divergence
-4.7
Final
35.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)66.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)83.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)88.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.8% to -1.2%
Medium-term
-8.2% to -1.3%
Long-term
-10.5% to -1.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 5

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score72.9/100
Target Upside+38.5%
Coverage24 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score80.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.5%
6M Momentum+0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+23.9%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.49)
Relative Strength vs Sector+22.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (4.0)
Momentum Quality+0.401
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P99
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P40
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P45
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+2.2σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 72 relative to sector peers72/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 48th percentileP48
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.8pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (72.3) + 9% ML (46.6) + SHAP(+1.8) = 71.8—
Factor quality: +0.5pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 11.8%. Max drawdown 15% (-2.8 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: -4.0 points ($2.8B market cap)-4.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -1.3pt (conviction=36)—
Divergence penalty: -2.1pt (fund 24pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by -26 pointsGrade D
Quality concern: Non-operating gain: net margin (-52.0%) exceeds operating margin (-72.8%) by 21pp — likely one-time item; High accrual ratio (37.5%) — earnings quality concern; Pipeline concentration: $2.8B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #169 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
IDYA35.4N/A3024.4%-52.0%$2.8B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy24 analysts
Buy: 22Hold: 2
Price Target
$44consensus
Low $30Median $43High $60
+39.7% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc., a synthetic lethality-focused precision medicine oncology company, focuses on the discovery and development of targeted therapeutics for patient populations selected using molecular diagnostics. The company's lead product candidates include IDE397, a methionine adenosyltransferase 2a inhibitor that is in Phase I clinical trial for patients with solid tumors having methylthioadenosine phosphorylase deletions; and IDE196, a protein kinase C inhibitor that is in Phase I/II clinical trial for genetically defined cancers having GNAQ or GNA11 gene mutations. Its preclinical pipeline includes various synthetic lethality programs targeting PARG inhibitor in tumors for patients having tumors with a defined biomarker based on genetic mutations and/or molecular signatures; Pol Theta inhibitors in tumors with BRCA or other homologous recombination deficiency mutations; and WRN inhibitors in tumors with high microsatellite instability. The company has a research collaboration agreement with Cancer Research UK and the University of Manchester to develop small molecule inhibitors of Poly (ADP-ribose) glycohydrolase; and a clinical trial collaboration and supply agreement with Pfizer Inc. for Phase I/II study in metastatic uveal melanoma, skin melanoma, and other solid tumors, as well as a strategic partnership with GlaxoSmithKline plc. IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.

CEO
Yujiro S. Hata
Employees
131
Beta
0.09
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
42.0
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-19.4%
High: $39.28
From 52W Low
+135.5%
Low: $13.45
Moving Averages
10-Day
$31.60
Above
20-Day
$32.30
Below
50-Day
$34.10
Below
200-Day
$27.80
Above
60-Day Support
$29.47
60-Day Resistance
$39.28
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 79/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+13.9%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+20.28%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.97x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$11M$208M$0$0
Gross Profit$10M$207M$-1M$-1M
Operating Income$-95M$108M$-89M$-84M
Net Income$-83M$119M$-77M$-72M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.94$1.33$-0.88$-0.82
Gross Margin89.0%99.5%N/AN/A
Operating Margin-869.5%52.2%N/AN/A
Net Margin-765.7%57.4%N/AN/A

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 3024.4%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 89/100Score impact: -14.7pt

Volume
97
916K avg/day
Dollar Vol
86
$29M/day
Float
94
86M shares
Mkt Cap
62
$2.8B
Range
100
192% spread
Composite Liquidity Score89/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$16.21$28.0053.3%Wide
2022$8.14$24.0999%Wide
2023$13.29$36.5193.3%Wide
2024$24.20$47.7465.4%Wide
2025$13.45$37.0893.5%Wide
3-Year Range
112.9%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
97.7%
Outstanding Shares
88M
Bid-Ask Spread
192.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.