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VCEL

🏥 Healthcare

Vericel Corporation

Conservative #863Aggressive #925Moderate RiskML↑ 32pt
$37.75+1.78%
Day High$38.49
Day Low$35.69
Volume0.4M
Mkt Cap$1.9B
52W Low $2952W High $55
Market Cap
$1.9B
P/E Ratio
147.0
Sector avg: 41.9
Rev Growth
20.1%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
425.6%
Profit Margin
5.1%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.30

Why This Score

VCEL scores 40.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 147.0x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (10.7%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-2.2 points) applied. VCEL's rank of #863 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score40.6
Fundamental Score44.8
ML Score15.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
76.4
6 Month
85.3
Primary
1 Year
89.8

Quality Assessment

F
Earnings Grade
Quality flags triggered — see details below
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-352.1%) — earnings quality concern
Pipeline concentration: $1.9B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
41
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
66
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
80
Grade A
Base
38.8
SHAP
+2.2
Factors
+1.8
Divergence
-2.2
Final
40.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)50.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)48.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)77.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+9.9% to +15.9%
Medium-term
+14.4% to +23.2%
Long-term
+20.9% to +32.9%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 15

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score66.1/100
Target Upside+17.7%
Coverage14 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score40.6/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum-0.3%
6M Momentum-0.0%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-28.8%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.04)
Relative Strength vs Sector-54.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.8)
Momentum Quality-0.211
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P68
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P1
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P69
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 45 relative to sector peers45/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 15th percentileP15
Blended score: 80% fundamental (45) + 20% ML (15) = 38.838.8
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 29% → 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade F: quality flags triggered — see details below. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade F
SHAP feature alignment: +2.2pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Divergence penalty: -2.2pt (ML 30pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-352.1%) — earnings quality concern; Pipeline concentration: $1.9B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #126 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
VCEL40.6147.020.1%5.1%$1.9B
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
ASND78.316.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.3B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
Sector Average36.441.9161.5%-3292.7%—

Company Overviewvia FMP

Vericel Corporation, a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, engages in the research, development, manufacture, and distribution of cellular therapies for sports medicine and severe burn care markets in the United States. The company markets autologous cell therapy products comprising MACI, an autologous cellularized scaffold product for the repair of symptomatic, and single or multiple full-thickness cartilage defects of the knee; and Epicel, a permanent skin replacement humanitarian use device for the treatment of adult and pediatric patients with deep-dermal or full-thickness burns. Its preapproval stage product is NexoBrid, a registration-stage biological orphan product for eschar removal in adults with deep partial-thickness and/or full-thickness thermal burns. The company was formerly known as Aastrom Biosciences, Inc. Vericel Corporation was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

CEO
Dominick C. Colangelo
Employees
357
Beta
1.23
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
62.0
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-32%
High: $55.41
From 52W Low
+28.8%
Low: $29.24
Moving Averages
10-Day
$37.20
Above
20-Day
$36.60
Above
50-Day
$37.10
Above
200-Day
$37.50
Above
60-Day Support
$33.58
60-Day Resistance
$41.65
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 58/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Transition signal: 1→2
Price vs 200 SMA
+0.5%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-6.28%
Falling
Volume Ratio
0.89x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
1
Confidence: 50%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$93M$68M$63M$53M
Gross Profit$73M$50M$47M$36M
Operating Income$22M$3M$-2M$-13M
Net Income$23M$5M$-553,000$-11M
EPS (Diluted)$0.46$0.10$-0.01$-0.23
Gross Margin78.7%73.5%73.7%69.0%
Operating Margin24.1%5.1%-3.2%-24.3%
Net Margin25.0%7.5%-0.9%-21.4%

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 20.1%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 80/100Score impact: +3.7pt

Volume
82
549K avg/day
Dollar Vol
81
$21M/day
Float
80
50M shares
Mkt Cap
59
$1.9B
Range
100
90% spread
Composite Liquidity Score80/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$34.00$68.9467.9%Wide
2022$17.30$43.9787.1%Wide
2023$23.39$39.9052.2%Wide
2024$32.31$61.4962.2%Wide
2025$29.24$63.0073.2%Wide
3-Year Range
91.7%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
98.9%
Outstanding Shares
51M
Bid-Ask Spread
90.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.