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47

VRDN

🏥 Healthcare

Viridian Therapeutics, Inc.

Conservative #645Aggressive #602Low RiskHigh 83
$28.94-1.56%
Day High$30.33
Day Low$28.77
Volume1.0M
Mkt Cap$2.3B
52W Low $1052W High $34
Market Cap
$2.2B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
-3.8%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-13.6%
Profit Margin
-426.6%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.05

Why This Score

VRDN scores 47.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.05) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (83/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Above-average volatility (14.0%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-3.0 points) applied. VRDN's rank of #645 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score47.1
Fundamental Score46.6
ML Score49.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
42.0
6 Month
46.9
Primary
1 Year
49.4

Quality Assessment

D
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $2.2B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary risk
Speculative Classification
Speculative growth — negative margins and ROE with momentum-driven price action. High risk of mean reversion.
Conservative score reduced by 3 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
85
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
70
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
90
Grade A
Base
44.0
SHAP
+1.3
Factors
+0.2
Conviction
+1.6
Final
47.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)45.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)88.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)89.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-3.1% to +1.1%
Medium-term
-4.2% to +2.0%
Long-term
-5.3% to +2.9%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 49

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score70.3/100
Target Upside+51.7%
Coverage16 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score85.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.8%
6M Momentum+0.5%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+27.8%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.65)
Relative Strength vs Sector+55.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.673
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
5%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P14
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P40
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P13
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 52 relative to sector peers52/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 51th percentileP51
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.3pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (52.1) + 9% ML (49.6) + SHAP(+1.3) = 53.2
Factor quality: +0.2pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 14.0%. Max drawdown 15% (-3.0 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: -4.0 points ($2.2B market cap)-4.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +1.6pt (conviction=83)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by -30 pointsGrade D
Quality concern: Non-operating gain: net margin (-426.6%) exceeds operating margin (-463.5%) by 37pp — likely one-time item; Pipeline concentration: $2.2B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #96 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
VRDN47.1N/A-3.8%-426.6%$2.2B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy16 analysts
Buy: 13Hold: 3
Price Target
$43consensus
Low $34Median $45High $50
+48.2% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Viridian Therapeutics, Inc., a biotechnology company, develops treatments for patients suffering from serious diseases. It develops VRDN-001, a humanized monoclonal anti-IGF-1R antibody that is in Phase 1/2 clinical trial for the treatment of thyroid eye disease (TED); VRDN-002, an IGF-1R antibody, which is in Phase 1 clinical trial; and VRDN-003, a therapeutic antibody targeting IGF-1R for the treatment of TED. The company was formerly known as Miragen Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Viridian Therapeutics, Inc. in January 2021. Viridian Therapeutics, Inc. was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.

CEO
Stephen F. Mahoney
Employees
143
Beta
0.98
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
41.0
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-15.6%
High: $34.29
From 52W Low
+192.3%
Low: $9.9
Moving Averages
10-Day
$28.50
Above
20-Day
$29.90
Below
50-Day
$31.20
Below
200-Day
$22.70
Above
60-Day Support
$27.2
60-Day Resistance
$34.29
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 88/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+27.5%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+28.84%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.88x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$71M$75,000$72,000$72,000
Gross Profit$71M$75,000$72,000$72,000
Operating Income$-40M$-107M$-94M$-87M
Net Income$-35M$-101M$-87M$-80M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.34$-1.00$-0.87$-0.81
Gross Margin100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
Operating Margin-56.7%-142356.0%-130369.4%-121488.9%
Net Margin-49.0%-134313.3%-120711.1%-110729.2%

Why This Stock

Healthcare

Tradability FilterGrade A — 90/100Score impact: -16.2pt

Volume
100
1.5M avg/day
Dollar Vol
95
$42M/day
Float
87
67M shares
Mkt Cap
61
$2.2B
Range
100
246% spread
Composite Liquidity Score90/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$10.44$22.0071.3%Wide
2022$9.47$29.99104%Wide
2023$10.93$39.00112.5%Wide
2024$11.40$27.2081.9%Wide
2025$9.90$34.04109.9%Wide
3-Year Range
119%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
slight revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
82.0%
Outstanding Shares
81M
Bid-Ask Spread
246.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.