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37

OCUL

🏥 Healthcare

Ocular Therapeutix, Inc.

Conservative #937Aggressive #898Moderate RiskModerate 79
$9.50+6.09%
Day High$9.76
Day Low$9.26
Volume7.8M
Mkt Cap$2.1B
52W Low $652W High $16
Market Cap
$1.7B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
-18.7%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-37.4%
Profit Margin
-511.9%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.12

Why This Score

OCUL scores 37.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Positive but moderate momentum (24%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
  • High conviction (79/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Above-average volatility (11.8%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-4.8 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score37.1
Fundamental Score36.5
ML Score57.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
28.2
6 Month
31.6
Primary
1 Year
33.2

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $1.7B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary risk
Speculative Classification
Anomalous margin data — extreme values suggest one-time events or accounting irregularities.
Conservative score reduced by 4 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
80
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
74
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
91
Grade A
Base
36.6
SHAP
+1.2
Factors
+0.1
Divergence
-0.8
Final
37.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)35.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)48.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)88.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-14.6% to -6.0%
Medium-term
-19.5% to -7.2%
Long-term
-24.4% to -8.3%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 57

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score73.5/100
Target Upside+224.3%
Coverage17 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score79.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum+0.2%
6M Momentum-0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+51.6%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.89)
Relative Strength vs Sector-0.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.1)
Momentum Quality+0.177
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
6%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P9
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P40
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P16
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 51 relative to sector peers51/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 41th percentileP41
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.2pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (51.2) + 9% ML (39.4) + SHAP(+1.2) = 51.4
Factor quality: +0.1pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 11.8%. Max drawdown 27% (-7.7 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.7B market cap)-8.0 pts
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -10 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (23.0%) — earnings quality concern; Pipeline concentration: $1.7B biotech/pharma — likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #153 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
OCUL37.1N/A-18.7%-511.9%$1.7B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy17 analysts
Strong Buy: 1Buy: 14Hold: 2
Price Target
$27consensus
Low $21Median $29High $31
+184.2% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Ocular Therapeutix, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the formulation, development, and commercialization of therapies for diseases and conditions of the eye using its bioresorbable hydrogel-based formulation technology. The company markets ReSure Sealant, an ophthalmic device to prevent wound leaks in corneal incisions following cataract surgery; and DEXTENZA, a dexamethasone ophthalmic insert to treat post-surgical ocular inflammation and pain following ophthalmic surgery, as well as allergic conjunctivitis. It is also developing OTX-TKI, an axitinib intravitreal implant that is in phase 1 clinical trials for the treatment of wet age-related macular degeneration and other retinal diseases; OTX-TIC, a travoprost intracameral implant, which is in phase 2 clinical trials for the treatment of open-angle glaucoma or ocular hypertension; OTX-CSI, a cyclosporine intracanalicular insert that has completed phase 2 clinical trials for the treatment of dry eye disease; and OTX-DED, a dexamethasone intracanalicular insert, which is in phase 2 clinical trials for the short-term treatment of the signs and symptoms of dry eye disease. The company has a strategic collaboration with Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Regeneron) for the development and commercialization of products using the Company's sustained-release hydrogel in combination with Regeneron's large molecule VEGF-targeting compounds for the treatment of retinal diseases; and AffaMed Therapeutics Limited for the development and commercialization of DEXTENZA and OTX-TIC, as well as a discovery collaboration with Mosaic Biosciences to identify new targets and therapeutic agents for the treatment of dry age-related macular degeneration (dMAD). Ocular Therapeutix, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Bedford, Massachusetts.

CEO
Pravin U. Dugel
Employees
274
Beta
0.90
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
57.5
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-42.2%
High: $16.44
From 52W Low
+64.1%
Low: $5.79
Moving Averages
10-Day
$8.30
Above
20-Day
$8.70
Above
50-Day
$10.70
Below
200-Day
$11.00
Below
60-Day Support
$6.23
60-Day Resistance
$16.44
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 18/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-13.6%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+11.4%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.95x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
21
Confidence: 40%
Recent Gap UpRecent Gap Down

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$13M$15M$13M$11M
Gross Profit$12M$13M$12M$9M
Operating Income$-70M$-69M$-68M$-64M
Net Income$-65M$-69M$-68M$-64M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.29$-0.38$-0.39$-0.38
Gross Margin88.0%87.8%85.6%88.2%
Operating Margin-526.5%-472.3%-502.6%-597.5%
Net Margin-488.0%-477.3%-503.9%-598.7%

Why This Stock

Healthcare

Tradability FilterGrade A — 91/100Score impact: -11.2pt

Volume
100
4.3M avg/day
Dollar Vol
91
$36M/day
Float
100
191M shares
Mkt Cap
57
$1.7B
Range
100
184% spread
Composite Liquidity Score91/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.05x dampening
weinstein decliningsevere revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
87.7%
Outstanding Shares
218M
Bid-Ask Spread
184.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.